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By Nick Berney.

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday’s Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a good too soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

11. Williams Bay is racing well and coming out of time/sectional merit races all preparation. The three-year-old filly was checked/blocked in the straight and ran on strongly last start at Goulburn. Punter’s Intelligence recorded she ran the third-fastest last 200m of the entire meeting in 11.16. She finds a winnable maiden and with even luck, she will be hitting the line hard.

Dangers: 3. Spending Spree is on a seven-day backup and is a speedy type. She is back to 900m which suits and expect an aggressive ride in an attempt to run them ragged. It’s worth noting albeit using a small sample size, the trainer/jockey combination of Mark Minervini and Mikayla Weir have partnered for four winners out of 25 attempts at a profit on turnover of 91.8%. 8. Eva Daniela was wide on debut at Scone when weakening out of the race and was immediately spelled. She resumes after trialling well enough and has barrier one with James McDonald to ride. 4. Island Rock goes in all exotics with multiple gear changes.

How to play it: Williams Bay WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Williams Bay last start at Goulburn on February 6

3. Silent Thunder returned as a gelding first-up at Newcastle 19 days ago and ran evenly in a fast time race. He ran the race’s fastest 600m-400m split before being checked and losing his balance but still finished off ok. The four-year-old gelding has strong form-lines/figures from his first preparation that will put him in the finish if able to reproduce those efforts. Expect an aggressive ride with the blinkers on for the first time over a further distance, and Jason Collett goes on.

Dangers: 1. Bobby Is King has raced well in his first preparation, and although eased considerably in the market last start at Goulburn, he was brave in defeat. The three-year-old gelding raced keenly and was outpaced when the tempo quickened but finished off strongly in the inferior ground to run second. 5. Peindre and 2. Powerbeel both come out of a different race at Goulburn last start, where they weren’t suited. Peindre has the starting price advantage and receives a 0.5kg swing in the weights, and 1400m is ideal second-up.

How to play it: Silent Thunder WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Silent Thunder first-up at Newcastle on February 26

4. Anythink Goes has returned improved this preparation after a hidden run first-up at Kensington and then bolted in second-up over 1500m at Goulburn. However, the three-year-old colt had no luck last start at Newcastle 12 days ago when racing wide in a very-fast pace and weakening. He has an improved race setup with a significant barrier change and maps to get complete control of the pace being the only likely leader. Further, if he can reproduce his prior form/figures, the colt will take some catching.

Dangers: 7. Tycoon Hallie has been a model of consistency throughout her career and was not suited last started when running on well to just miss. The four-year-old mare has a strong record at this track and can be in striking distance when the sprint goes on in the smaller field. 3. Whodat demolished his rivals at this track/distance 13 days ago on a heavy track. Nash Rawiller got the best out of him, and he may be able to go on with it now. 6. Kokoro was restrained from a wide-draw first-up and got too far back in the big field when running on ok but peaked on his run. He will undoubtedly improve second-up over further distance and back to a drier track suits.

How to play it: Anythink Goes WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) & Tycoon Hallie WIN ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Anythink Goes second-up win at Goulburn on February 17

5. Shirvo looks to have come back improved after trialling well in a fast time heat and has race experience. In his first preparation, the two-year-old contested feature races at the metropolitan level and ran solid races with form around the likes of Sejardan/Queen Of The Ball. He was brave on his debut after racing wide and then sticking on well into fourth. The colt then was outpaced throughout second-up in a very-fast tempo but ran on strongly, running the race’s second-fastest 400m-200m split in 11.32. The stable is renowned for having their runners wound up to run well first up, and it’s worth noting that G Ryan & S Alexiou have had 17 winners from their past 100 runners at a profit on turnover of 9.3%

Dangers: 9. Mandalong Missile got too far back first-up at Orange and hit the line hard. She ran the third-quickest last 200m sectional of the entire meeting in 11.12 and 1200m suits now with a senior jockey jumping on. First starters 4. One Reason has been ridden out in his trials and 7. West Africa has trialled well enough on the synthetic six days ago.

How to play it: Shirvo WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Shirvo’s latest trial at Rosehill on February 21

9. Choix De La Mer had no luck first-up at Wyong when she was chiming into the race well and was severely checked/blocked at a critical stage. The three-year-old filly lost all momentum and should’ve finished much closer, but to her credit, she picked herself back up to be strong past the post. In addition, that race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. She has an improvers profile, maps to get all favours with her natural gate speed and should take some catching. Each-Way.

Dangers: 12. Shohei is a first starter for the Hawkes stable and has been trialling well. She will have to overcome a tricky draw, but she has style and running strong sectionals in her heats. 11. Mirra View raced well last preparation in fast time races and resumes after trialling well enough on the Polytrack. She has figures that can put her in the finish and a key late market watch. 1. Sabino receives a significant barrier change and is suited back to a drier track being the likely leader. 2. Bionic has been ridden out in his trials and is wound up for this assignment.

How to play it: Choix De La Mer E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Choix De La Mer runs third at Wyong on February 15

Multiple scratching's this morning has changed the complexion of this race. 12. Comrade Rosa continually ran fast closing sectionals relative to the meeting in all three runs in her first preparation. The three-year-old filly is a nice type, trialled well and is wound up to run well for this assignment. She can be in striking distance when the sprint goes on in the smaller field and use her customary turn of foot to sprint over the top.

Dangers: 7. Divina has had a long-time off and has had two quiet trials with an apprentice rider on in her latest heat. James McDonald rides from a soft draw and she is a key market watch. 5. Cobia has been run off his feet over 1000m this preparation and can settle closer out to 1200m with drier ground suiting. 15. Rinnova is suited back to a drying track and will have the option to roll forward.

How to play it: Comrade Rosa WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Comrade Rosa's latest trial at Randwick on March 3

3. Never Talk has been a victim of getting too far back and having too much to do in farcically run races this preparation. The four-year-old mare’s last start in the Group 3 Wenona Girl Quality (1200m) at Randwick was full of merit, where she ran the second-fastest final 400m/200m sectionals of the entire meeting in 23.58/12.05. She gets in well at the weights under the race conditions, and her ratings profile suggests she is ready to peak third-up. Additionally, with an anticipated genuine tempo and James McDonald on for the first time, she can settle closer out to 1400m from barrier one.

Dangers: 9. Mayrose has improved this preparation, winning both of her starts impressively. She ran fast time winning at Canterbury first-up and ran the fastest last 600m/400m/200m sectionals of the meeting in 34.27/22.35/11.19. The three-year-old filly was strong in torrential rain when winning second-up at Randwick 19 days ago. She will have to go back from the awkward draw but expect her to be charging late. 4. Sammy has a sense of timing about him after having excuses in both runs this preparation. He gets a significant barrier/jockey change to Nash Rawiller and produces his peak figures at his home track. 2. Petronius is the likely leader and rock-hard fit. Market watch 1. Cristal Breeze, who is last year’s Polytrack Provincial Championships winner and has trialled well enough with a jumpout in-between as well. Expect 11. Daphne Jean to be ridden forward, and Tommy Berry goes on.

How to play it: Never Talk WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Never Talk runs third at Randwick on March 5

3. Readily Availabull returned after a long break and was restrained from a wide-draw back to the rear. He got too far back and had to make his run through the inferior ground. The three-year-old gelding finished well, running the fifth-fastest last 200m of the meeting in 11.22. He is an improver onto a drier track and can settle closer with a significant barrier change. Each Way.

Dangers: 8. Endorsement is well educated and ran time winning on debut. He is an improver for trainer Chris Waller, and 1400m is an ideal setup second-up with Hugh Bowman sticking. 11. Cross The Rubicon produced a career peak figure last start when winning at Goulburn. She is sprinting fast closing sectionals and will be hitting the line hard. 2. Tim’s Principal is down in grade and has a strong record at this track. Market watch 4. Akhtar who has multiple winning figures but some query first-up from a wide-draw. 7. The Crimson Idol maps to get complete control of the pace.

How to play it: Readily Availabull E/W ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Readily Availabull first-up at Newcastle on March 5

10. Ocean Shores is an improving type on an upwards ratings spiral this preparation. The three-year-old gelding began awkwardly last start at Canterbury 19 days ago and just had too much to do when settling at the rear of the field. Albeit run to suit, he was in an impossible position at the 400m mark around the tight-turning track and made-up considerable ground to hit the line hard. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. The bigger track is a significant positive with James McDonald sticking, and he will be running on strongly.

Dangers: 11. Ting Tong is improving throughout his preparation and is coming out of time/sectional merit races. Market watch 2. Arnaqueur who is 31 days between runs but has trialled well in-between. The three-year-old gelding has strong form-lines and has a gear change. 5. Olympic Theatre and 9. Picaro have knockout profiles.

How to play it: Ocean Shores WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Ocean Shores last start at Canterbury on February 25

Best Bet: Race 7 # 3 – Never Talk.

Next Best: Race 5 # 9 – Choix De La Mer E/W.

Quaddie:

Leg 1: 12
Leg 2: 3,4,9
Leg 3: 2,3,8,11
Leg 4: 2,10,11

Combinations = 36.

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday’s Newcastle meeting