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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Forgiving of 8. Octavian Treasure's last start at Gosford 14 days when starting favourite, and she had genuine excuses. The filly led at a fast pace, was given no peace throughout and faded out of it. Further, she was slow to recover in a post-race vet report. She is coming through time/sectional merit races, finds a winnable race here and is suited over the squib distance. Expect her to roll forward with the awkward draw being no issue as there is only one turn coming out of the 900m chute, and she'll take some catching with the blinkers on for the first time.

Dangers: 4. Toyger is ready to peak third-up and has produced all his peak figures over 900m. Debutante 5. Gidday Gidday has shown speed in and won two trials leading into this assignment. 2. South Of India returns off a 175-day and ran time, winning a recent trial at Kembla Grange on rain-affected ground.

How to play it: Octavian Treasure WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).

Octavian Treasure last start at Gosford on December 28

2. Euromaster had excuses first-up at Wyong 19 days ago when checked/blocked at a critical stage, but he ran on well into second. Further, that race rated extremely well relative to the day and has since produced a subsequent winner. The gelding will be fitter from that effort; the bigger track suits and his sectional profile suggests the distance rise is ideal.

Dangers: 5. Different Road was well-backed late in the trade last start but had factors against him. Prior to that start, his effort had merit and a senior rider in Grant Buckley goes on for the first time. 1. Stanczyk returned well first-up at Gosford, and expect him to improve sharply from that performance. 3. Sovereign Dane maps to control the speed and 7. Meerut is rock-hard fit.

How to play it: Euromaster WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).

Euromaster runs second at Wyong on December 23

Leaning towards 8. Elusive Mission, at the double-figure odds, who has improved in her latest two runs, and she represents value here. The mare always faced the breeze in a fast pace/high-rating race last start at Wyong and battled on ok. She maps to have complete control in this event and gets in with no weight after the claim for apprentice Anna Roper. In addition, she is rock-hard fit and can give a sight. Each-way.

Dangers: 2. Aquatica is another runner who can improve sharply here, coming through a strong time race, and her debut run was a complete forgive. She can settle closer with the significant barrier change and be within striking distance on the turn. 1. Parabellum has multiple winning ratings but is well-found in early markets, resuming off a 230-day break. 7. Dunaloce can bounce back with a couple of gear changes, and she won a recent trial well. Add 5. All Too Rosey who was honest first-up and is on the seven-day backup.

How to play it: Elusive Mission E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds).

Elusive Mission last start at Wyong on December 23

Keen on 7. Xidaki who is an improving type, and he profiles well for this event. The Snowden trained galloper was a drifter in the betting first-up at Randwick 16 days ago, but his effort was full of merit in a high-rating race. Further, he was caught three-wide out on a limb working throughout, and when headed in the straight, he kept fighting to finish third. His sectional breakdown suggested he would improve from the run, and he has a much more positive race setup here. The lightly raced gelding has a tactical map advantage over some of his key rivals; Kerrin McEvoy rides for the first time and, with even luck, expect him to be hard to beat.

Dangers: 4. Hanau comes through the same race as Xidaki and outsprinted that runner before floating when he hit the front. Moreover, the race experience will have only benefited him, and he can be in the finish. 2. Seton Hall must contend with a tricky draw, but he has a powerful finish and has trialled up nicely.

How to play it: Xidaki WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds).

Xidaki runs third at Randwick on December 26

10. Shako returns as a gelding and has had two trials leading into this assignment. Further, the Godolphin galloper has gone through the line full of energy in both heats and looks wound up. The lightly raced gelding won at this track/distance first-up last campaign, and expect him to find cover and use his key asset of acceleration to sprint past his rivals. Additionally, he'll need to step from a ratings perspective, but all key indicators suggest he can.

Dangers: 2. Mon Pierre has natural pace, and will be tough to catch coming off a 221-day break. 6. I'm Not Slew and 11. In A Step, bring the race fitness edge.

How to play it: Shako WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds).

Shako runs third in a trial at Warwick Farm on January 2

8. Take Me To Church was impressive on debut at this track 16 days ago, and the clock backed up his visual late strength. The three-year-old wasn't suited to the race shape and had to make a long sustained sprint to reel in an improving type over the concluding stages. Additionally, the race rated solidly relative to the day, and he ran one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. Key indicators suggest he can only step off that performance, and the rise in trip is ideal, with the anticipated genuine tempo giving him the chance to run over the top of his rivals again.

Dangers: 13. Dubai Empress is another runner jumping from maiden grade, but she's on the up and 3. Zouologist is rock-hard fit. Market watch on 9. Gendarmerie who can rate to win but some query over her first-up record.

How to play it: Take Me To Church ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds).

Take Me To Church wins on debut at Newcastle Beaumont on December 26

NZ import Unusual Legacy is an intriguing runner having his first start for trainer Chris Waller, and jockey Nash Rawiller will make the trip up for his only ride of the day. Moreover, he's trialled well where he went through the line full of energy in a recent heat at Rosehill and wasn't extended. He maps well and can sprint fresh.

Dangers: 14. Imatruestar gets in well at the weights and is on a nine-day backup. He has been racing consistently for most of his prep with factors against, and the blinkers come off here. Add 4. Spats Pav Bowie to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Unusual Legacy WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds).

Unusual Legacy's latest trial at Rosehill on December 29

Best Bet: Race 4 # 7 – Xidaki

Next Best: Race 6 # 8 – Take Me To Church

Best Value: Race 3 # 8 – Elusive Mission

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Newcastle meeting