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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday’s Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a heavy to soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

3. Parsonage Lane wasn’t suited to a sit and sprint tempo/tight turning track on debut at Wyong 14 days ago. Further, he was specked $21-$15 late in the trade, and once he balanced up in the final straight, he found the line well in a race that produced a high-rating last sectional figure. The three-year-old colt is suited to a bigger track, receives blinkers on for the first time and will have a tactical map advantage over some of his main rivals.

Dangers: 4. Diaco had the pace/bias against him last start and ran on well in a 2YO Handicap (1400m) at Rosehill Gardens last start. He is coming out of time/sectional merit races this prep and is ready to peak third-up over further distance. Expect him to be hitting the line hard. 5. Gotta Fly comes out of the same race as Parsonage Lane and tried hard in defeat. Market watch 1. Sardegna is suited over further but gets a key jockey booking in James McDonald.

How to play it: Parsonage Lane WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Parsonage runs fourth at Wyong on July 28

Leaning towards debutante 7. Dear Jewel who has trialled well in a recent heat at Rosehill on rain-affected ground over 900m. Moreover, he was beaten by Mumbai Jewel and Revolutionary Miss, who either won or placed in Group level company last preparation. The team Hawkes galloper will roll forward, and her breeding/recent trial suggests she will handle the ground. In addition, the wide draw is of little concern as there is only one turn from the 900m chute.

Dangers: Godolphin first starter 1. Bayezid is still learning but looks to have ability after running fast time/sectionals in a recent heat at Warwick Farm, albeit on the synthetic. The three-year-old-colt will benefit from his latest trial experience and gets James McDonald to ride. Expect him to be savaging the line. Market watch 9. Excursion who has had a long-time off but maps to have all favours. Add 6. Procrastinator and 10. Grand Horizon to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Dear Jewel WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Dear Jewel runs third in a trial at Rosehill on July 29

Lightly raced improver 4. Per Ivy was well-backed first-up at Goulburn $2.20-$1.90 late in the trade but wasn’t suited to the small field/very slow tempo. Further, she got through her gears well late to run third and hit the line hard, running one of the fastest final 200m splits of the entire meeting in 11.88. The four-year-old mare will be fitter for that effort and appreciate an anticipated genuine tempo where she produces her peak figures. Expect her to be savaging the line.

Dangers: 5. Zalini resumes and won her latest trial dominantly, albeit on the synthetic track. The Brad Widdup trained galloper produced both of her last preparation peak figures at this track/distance. She is a consistent type and wound up for this. 2. Propel Motion is a proven fresh performer and has trialled well enough. He gets in well at the weights with the claim and has a favourable map. 6. Oakfield Blossom is rock-hard fit and will roll forward.

How to play it: Per Ivy WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Per Ivy runs third at Goulburn on July 29

1. Miss Scalini was honest last start in a proven form race that has since produced two subsequent winners. She maps to control the pace, brings the best last start figure and will give a sight.

Dangers: 4. Microna is sharply back in distance but is a consistent type in this grade. Import 3. Green Reign rises to 1600m for the first time in Australia and maps to have all favours. 11. Lucky Banner rises to her ideal trip and will be running on.

How to play it: Miss Scalini WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Miss Scalini runs third at Kensington on July 20

5. Just Like Lisa had every chance when winning at Scone last start, but she did it in style. Further, she went through the line full of energy and ran the fastest final 400m/200m splits of the entire meeting in 23.42/11.95. The five-year-old mare is coming out of time/sectional merit races, Nash Rawiller rides, and her profile suggests she can make the step-in grade.

Dangers: 7. Lady Of Monaco wasn’t suited by the moderate tempo last start and ran on well. The Jason Coyle trained mare has been building in fitness each run this prep and is ready to peak fourth up. 8. Pharoahs Reign had all favours when winning her maiden last start but maps to get a similar run here. Expect her to give a sight. 11. Riccos is fit/honest and add 12. Croatian Madame to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Just Like Lisa WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Just Like Lisa wins at Scone on July 15

Forgive 3. Enjolras last start at Wyong where he had too much to do and raced flat second-up off a long spell. Prior to that start, he had every chance at Canterbury and tried hard in defeat, running one of the fastest last 200m sectionals of the meeting in 13.52. The Brad Widdup trained gelding gets the blinkers back on where he produces his peak figures and will have the opportunity to roll forward up in distance.

Dangers: 8. Rockbarton Ruby was a dominant winner at Scone last start in a high-rating race, and there has been a subsequent winner to confirm the form. The four-year-old mare had to make her run through the inferior ground and ran her final 600m split in 35.40. She rises in grade but is on an upwards ratings spiral, and key indicators suggest she can make the step. Market watch 1. Spangler who was 293 days between runs and struck a testing track first-up. He can bounce back and undoubtedly has the class to win. Add Tribute King to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Enjolras WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Enjolras last start at Wyong on July 28

4. Thrill Of Brazil wasn’t suited to the pace of the race/tight turning track at Gosford 19 days ago but still ran on well. Further, she produced one of the fastest final 400m splits of the entire meeting in 24.47 on a testing track. The four-year-old mare is rock-hard fit, maps well, the bigger track suits and she has a race experience edge on some of her main rivals.

Dangers: Debutant 11. Union Army is wound up for this event after two solid trials. He receives a nose roll for race day and maps to have all favours. First starter 3. Peak Legend was ridden out in his latest heat at Randwick. His breeding suggests he will handle the going and is a market watch. 13. Sleigh Queen resumes and brings strong form lines from last prep.

How to play it: Thrill Of Brazil WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Thrill Of Brazil runs second at Gosford on July 23

Lightly raced Import 6. Diamond Diesel won in style on his Australian debut and put his rivals away quickly at Gosford 19 days ago. The gelding ran one of the quickest final 200m splits of the day in 12.38 on a heavy 10-rated track. He will be fitter for that; the step up in distance is ideal second-up and expect a bold showing.

Dangers: 13. Rahni Factor tried hard first-up on a testing track and will undoubtedly improve. She maps to have all favours and is suited up to 1200m. Market watch 14. Impact Star who is rock-hard fit and can rate to win. 12. Princess Amira resumes and won a recent Muswellbrook trial.

How to play it: Diamond Diesel WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Diamond Diesel wins at Gosford on July 23

Best Bet: Race 3 # 4 – Per Ivy

Next Best/Value: Race 5 # 5 – Just Like Lisa

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday’s Newcastle meeting