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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Saturday’s Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a soft to heavy track and monitor for any bias.

Tricky race to start with the scratching of Sea Treasures. Import 3. Jack Duggan resumed his second Australian prep and was solid at an unsuitable distance. He receives a significant barrier change and can settle closer from the soft gate with an anticipated slow/even pace. Although well beaten, the four-year-old gelding contested Group races in Ireland, and his Australian rating figures line up for this grade.

Dangers: 2. Rosovo was not suited after settling last on a very-slow pace, and Punter’s Intelligence recorded he ran the race fastest 400m-200m split before peaking on his run. The step-back in distance suits and will be running on strongly. Market watch 5. Archregency who has had no official trials for new trainer Ian Finn and can sprint fresh. 6. Pono Kitoro was disappointing first-up but his debut winning figure lines up. 8. Travelling Kate is third-up and proven on rain-affected ground.

How to play it: Jack Duggan WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Jack Duggan first-up at Gosford on February 3

10. Sizzle Chic was wide at Nowra last start off a 39-day break and sprinted the third-fastest 400m-200m split of the entire meeting in 10.77. The margins were decisive, and the form has since been proven with a subsequent winner. She has residual fitness, which is an advantage on the testing track and maps to get all favours in the run.

Dangers: 7. Classy Gal was every chance last start at Canberra but is rock-hard fit and will be thereabouts. 8. Fabulous Choice is coming out a fast time race, and the blinkers go back on. Market watch on 3. Desi Girl after trialling well enough in preparation for her debut.

How to play it: Sizzle Chic WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Sizzle Chic runs second at Nowra on February 13

9. Kahawaty returned an improved filly this preparation and has been honest at the metropolitan level. She is coming out of time/sectional merit races and has dominant figures relative to her rivals. The three-year-old filly will need luck from the draw but the trainer/jockey combination of Anthony Cummings and Blake Spriggs is striking at 11.9% with a 14.3% profit on turnover.

Dangers: 8. In The Blink, who was wide all the way first-up in a strong pace/time race, represents value with a significant barrier change and all peak figures coming on rain-affected ground. 5. Californiasilencer has trialled well in fast time relative to the morning and maps to have all favours. Some query 4. Avaricious at 1200m, but she is fitter and tried hard first-up.

How to play it: Kahawaty WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Kahawaty last start at Canterbury on February 18

Open Benchmark middle-distance event. 7. Mediaro is lightly raced and a real trier proven on wet ground. He was narrowly beaten on debut at Newcastle by subsequent winner Paternal, and there was a gap to third confirming the form. The three-year-old gelding then had too much class when winning at Canberra last start. The step up to 1880m is ideal, and maps to get all favours with an inside draw that is a significant advantage from that starting point.

Dangers: 3. Shameless Miss was every chance last start at Kensington but was 20 days between runs, and that was a high-pressure event. She can bounce back and has a strong starting price profile relative to some rivals. 5. Justitia can settle closer from a soft draw and will be fitter. 2. Amfissa and 11. Galierro are knockout chances with past wet track figures that line up.

How to play it: Mediaro WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Mediaro wins her maiden at Canberra on February 4

6. Anythink Goes has returned improved this preparation after a hidden run first-up at Kensington and then bolted in over 1500m at Goulburn last start. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. He was every chance but sprinted the sixth-fastest final 200m of the entire meeting and gives every indicator the rise in distance will be ideal. The three-year-old colt is proven on the rain-affected ground and brings the highest last start figure. He will have to overcome the tricky draw but can roll forward and maps to find a handy position with the in-form Keagan Latham riding, who is striking at 8.1% profit on turnover from his last 100 rides.

Dangers: 2. Tipitina has been impressive in his first two career starts and really picked up and hit the line hard at Newcastle over 1600m last start running the fourth fastest last 200m sectional of the meeting in 11.64. He draws barrier one, which is an advantage over 1880m at Newcastle and the step up in distance looks ideal. Although, Tipitina has the starting price advantage over 10. Pink Ivory who gets a 2.5kg swing at the weights and is fitter after being 43 days between runs last start. 1. Kuzco Lad and 11. Single Crown must go in all exotics.

How to play it: Anythink Goes ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Anythink Goes wins at Goulburn on February 17

14. Tiempe Passate is a lightly raced improver on an upwards ratings spiral. She should’ve won two starts ago at Hawkesbury after being held up for most of the straight and hit the line hard once clear. The three-year-old filly again was checked/blocked after getting too far back on a slow pace and then rattled home in one of the fastest final 400m sectionals of the entire meeting in 22.83. She is rock-hard fit on an eleven-day backup, and the step up in distance is ideal. The query is a wide barrier, but Ashely Morgan may have options if there is any bias and she possesses key attributes to overcome this.

Dangers: The German import 16. Milka is the clear improver having her second Australian start after she was solid first-up. The four-year-old mare will be fitter and has a tactical map advantage who looks to get all favours in the run. Her rider Dylan Gibbons is in red-hot form striking at 22% at a 23% profit on turnover from his last 100 rides. Expect her to look the winner at some stage. 10. Edgewise has been battling on well for most of her preparation at the metropolitan level and drops back to the provincial circuit. She will handle the rain-affected going. 13. Jawaani chased a fast-tempo last start and battled on ok. Add 7. Credit Crunch who receives a significant barrier change, and the knockout chance is 15. Essential Sky.

How to play it: Tiempe Passate WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVEN.

Tiempe Passate last start at Kembla on February 22

Tricky class 1 and no real speed engaged, and late tactic changes will be critical. 2. Three Wise Men’s first-up effort at Canterbury had hidden merit after being heavily restrained where he got too far back and was chasing throughout. The three-year-old gelding recorded the third-fastest last 400m of the entire meeting. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. The form has since been proven with a winner and a placegetter. His peak figures have come on the rain-affected ground, and the in-form Dylan Gibbons may have the option to roll forward. It’s worth noting that Edward Cummings stable is striking at 11% at a 10.7% profit on turnover over his last 100 runners.

Dangers: 5. Achira contested the Group 1 Thousand Guineas and although well beaten, it has proved to be a strong form reference for all grades. She has a class edge on most of her rivals and has trialled well enough for this assignment. Late market moves will be key. 1. Readily Availabull promised plenty of potential as a two-year-old before having issues. He has been gelded and has trialled ok without the blinkers. He’ll be running on strongly. 3. Never Cry can settle closer and must be included. 12. Curtis Island can improve back onto a wet track.

How to play it: Three Wise Men E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Three Wise Men’s first-up run at Canterbury on February 11

6. Kiss Sum resumed this preparation in the Group 3 Eskimo Prince Stakes (1200m) at Randwick and was completely not suited after settling near the rear on a very-slow pace. He ran the eighth fastest last 400m sectional of the entire meeting in 22.25, making up considerable ground. The three-year-old then contested the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m), won by the star colt Anamoe. Additionally, he was again too far back and had to make his run through the inferior ground but still recorded the fourth fastest last 600m sectional of the race in 34.30. He drops significantly in grade and is well placed where he will carry only 0.5kg more than he did last start with Aaron Bullock’s probable weight. The recent Four Pillars winner has been a revelation since applying the blinkers and is ready to peak third-up with a more genuine tempo engaged. Expect him to be running on hard under the strong riding of Bullock.

Dangers: 7. Geo returned well after chasing a fast-tempo first-up and tried hard. He has multiple figures that line up to his rivals but some query second-up after a long time off. 4. Reformist had too much too do first-up last preparation and ran the race's second fastest final 200m at Randwick. He can sprint fresh. Market watch Sammy who has different form-lines, and all his peak figures have come at his home track.

How to play it: Kiss Sum WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Kiss Sum’s last start in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes at Rosehill on February 19

Best Bet: Race 8 # 6 – Kiss Sum.

Next Best: Race 6 # 14 – Tiempe Passate.

Best Value: Race 5 # 6 – Anythink Goes.

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Newcastle meeting