By Nick Berney
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday’s Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 1:00PM RARITY WHOLESALE 3Y&4YO BENCHMARK 68 HANDICAP (1600 METRES) |
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7. Communist had no luck last start at Kensington in a stronger grade won by a potential group class galloper in Arnold. Further, he was checked/blocked at a critical stage, losing momentum but still picked himself up and finished off well into fourth place. The Michael Freedman trained galloper brings a fitness edge relative to some of his rivals, maps to have all favours and James McDonald rides. In addition, his ratings profile suggests he is ready to peak third-up.
Dangers: 1. Ting Tong, who resumes, wasn’t extended in his latest trial at Scone. The four-year-old brings strong form lines and ran a solid sixth in the QLD Derby (2400m) before spelling. He has a class edge and is a key late market watch. 5. I Want One rises in grade but won well at Muswellbrook last start and is rock-hard fit. Add 4. Artero to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Communist WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Communist runs fourth at Kensington on August 24
Race 2 - 1:35PM KLOSTER MOTOR GROUP F&M MAIDEN HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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7. A Lot More Love started a well fancied $1.85 favourite last start at Hawkesbury and tried hard in defeat. The three-year-old was not suited to the farcical tempo but closed off well into second place. Further, she sprinted the fastest final 400m/200m splits of the entire meeting in 23.04/11.52 and maintained a strong finishing speed to the line. The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou trained gallopers sectional profile suggests she’s ready to peak third-up and receives a senior rider in Brenton Advulla for the first time this preparation. Expect a bold showing.
Dangers: 10. Poetic Drama is coming out of a high-rating race and is suited up in distance. Adding debutante 1. Condrieu and 13. Monfiducia to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: A Lot More Love WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
A Lot More Love runs second at Hawkesbury on September 3
Race 3 - 2:10PM HUNTER VALLEY PREMIUM MEATS T-BONE STEAKS MAIDEN (1400 M) |
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12. Makalu sat outside the leader first-up in a fast tempo at this track 17 days ago and stuck on well to finish fourth. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day after adjusting for age, class and additional factors with a subsequent winner to confirm the form. He will be fitter for that effort, maps to control the pace and will give a sight.
Dangers: Forget 6. State Of America’s last start at Gosford, where he didn’t handle the tight-turning track and hung out badly. He can bounce back and can rate to win. 5. Cut On A Dime was checked/blocked over the concluding stages’ last start and add 7. Summons to exotics.
How to play it: Makalu WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Makalu's last start at Newcastle on August 30
Race 4 - 2:50PM NEW ERA TECHNOLOGY HURRICANE HANDICAP - BM78 (900 METRES) |
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2. Washington Towers, who resumes, has trialled well and went through the line full of energy. The consistent four-year-old ran time when winning at Canberra first-up last prep and has multiple winning figures for this event. Further, one of the gelding’s peak efforts came at this track/distance. The Todd Smart galloper has the natural gate speed to roll forward, is proven on the rain-affected ground and will take some catching.
Dangers: 8. Comonic led at a fast tempo and had the bias against last start in a TAB Highway (1100m) at Randwick. He is fit, and the step back in distance is ideal. 5. Ebhaar bounced back into the winner’s stall after a brave win last start at Warwick Farm. The three-year-old travelled wide throughout and kept fighting to the line. She brings superior form lines and will undoubtedly be in the finish. Expect 3. Saquon to be savaging the line.
How to play it: Washington Towers WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Washington Towers wins a trial at Goulburn on September 9
Race 5 - 3:25PM GTS LAWNPRIDE AUSTRALIA CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1850 METRES) |
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4. Martini Crusader started a $2.50 favourite last start and wasn’t suited to the sit and sprint tempo. Moreover, he was checked/blocked at a critical stage and lost all his momentum, but to his credit, he picked himself up and finished well. Prior to that start, he ran some of the fastest closing sectionals of the day and savaged the line. He maps to have all favours, is suited up in distance, and Tim Clark rides. Each-way.
Dangers: 11. Left Reeling broke through for her maiden win last start at Scone and did it easily. She can step again off that performance and will have every chance from the soft draw. Key market watch on import 2. Iowa, who has strong international form-lines and can rate to win. Add 6. Supremo to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Martini Crusader WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Martini Crusader runs second at Wyong on September 2
Race 6 - 4:05PM SHARP OFFICE NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES) |
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4. Durston bounced back into form when winning the Wyong Cup (2100m) 14 days ago and ran a career peak figure. The gelding was perfectly ridden by James McDonald that day, but he produced a high-rating last sectional figure and did it in style. In addition, he can step again off that performance and maps to have all favours.
Dangers: 9. Born A King bolted in last start at Rosehill, winning by 4.5 lengths over 2000m, and his sectional profile gave every indication the rise in the distance is no issue. The six-year-old is in career-best form and racing ultra-consistently. Moreover, his adaptable and has shown he can sprint off slow/fast tempos. 8. Yiyi comes from the same race as Durston, beating the rest easily and is a late market watch. 2. Mankayan is rock-hard fit and proven at the distance. 1. Arapaho must carry the top-weight but had the bias against last start and is racing well.
How to play it: Durston WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Durston wins at Wyong on September 2
Race 7 - 4:40PM AUSTRALIAN BLOODSTOCK CAMERON HANDICAP (1500 METRES) |
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This race has changed complexion with multiple key scratchings this morning. Leaning towards 7. Luncies who has had a quiet trial and can sprint fresh. Additionally, he brings strong form lines and can be within striking distance with the small field engaged.
Dangers: 6. Character failed first-up on a very testing track. He can bounce back with the blinkers on and can rate to win. 10. Wild Chap is rock-hard fit and market watch on 8. The Frontman
How to play it: Luncies WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Luncies latest trial at Wyong on August 10
Race 8 - 5:20PM YARRAMAN PARK TIBBIE STAKES (1400 METRES) |
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5. Katalin was extremely brave in defeat last start at Wyong after racing wide throughout in a genuine tempo. The six-year-old mare has an electric turn of foot to overcome the tricky draw and brings the best last start figure.
Dangers: 2. More Prophets comes through the same race as Katalin and got too far back last start. She receives a significant barrier change and can settle closer. Forgiving of 7. Sur La Mer’s last start, and she is rock-hard fit. Add6. Le Villi to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Katalin WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Katalin runs second at Wyong on September 2
Best Bet Race 2 # 7 – A Lot More Love
Next Best Race 3 # 12 – Makalu
Best Value Race 5 # 4 - Martini Crusader
All the fields, form and replays for Friday’s Newcastle meeting