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By Neil Evans

The track is rated a Heavy 8 with the rail in the True position.

A very competitive maiden field gets us underway on a rain-affected track with the rail coming right back to True from 9m just 10 days ago. Nicely bred two-year-old colt 9. Royalzel ($3.50 on TAB) can strike at his second outing. Got well back on debut at Wyong after a poor start and then didn't get the clearest run from the turn, yet still finished off okay. With that experience, he will appreciate getting on to a much bigger track and is bred to swim, being by Snitzel out of a Show a Heart mare.

Dangers: Another two-year-old with promise 6. Rocstar Boy ($3.80) has had two solid provincial runs in his first real prep, and also bred to thrive in the wet being by Japanese powerhouse Maurice out of a Smart Missile mare. Big watch on two-year-old Zoustar colt 7. Starmoss ($2.70 favourite) on debut after two spaced trials.

How to play it: Royal Zel to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Got plenty of time for consistent and classy three-year-old 2. Captivare ($1.80 fav) who hasn't missed a place in four runs this prep. Charged home after being ridden quieter last time at Newcastle and suspect from this draw and with several gear changes, they'll adopt similar tactics.

Dangers: Tough three-year-old 4. Jimmy's Dream ($2.20) couldn't find the front after a sluggish start at Wyong third-up, but still fought on well behind the stablemate winner. Hasn't finished further back than second this prep and much better placed ridden aggressively from a wide gate on the bigger track.

How to play it: Captivare to win and quinella 2 and 4
Odds and Evens: Evens

Still over the middle distance in a tricky affair. Like the value and timing around four-year-old mare 8. Pia Sofia ($5) who steps up in distance from a string of 1200m runs where she's settled back and finished hard. Only career win so far came on heavy ground and she's drawn to get an ideal trail. Over the odds!

Dangers: Progressive filly 3. Kibosh ($2.40 fav) is fourth-up and boasts one of those near bullet-proof styles, putting herself right on speed and finding the line. Hasn't finished further back than second in five consecutive runs since the spring, fighting on strong to land her maiden at Canberra two runs ago. Ex-Kiwi staying filly 4. Meg ($4.80) drops back significantly in trip off a seven-week break for her first run in the Matt Dale stable at Canberra. Was contesting Group 3 company in NZ before crossing the Tasman and will be running on late. Keep safe improving mare 5. Shamani ($6.50) with blinkers applied third-up and was scratched from Race 7 for this.

How to play it: Pia Sofia each-way and box trifecta 3,4,5,8
Odds and Evens: Split

Plenty of chances in this one over the sprint trip headed by three-year-old provincial I Am Invincible filly 8. Eminencia ($3.40 fav) who debuts off two very progressive trials, bolting in the latest by more than four lengths on a soft 7 rating.

Dangers: Improving filly 12. Taylor's Dream ($6.50) can challenge fourth-up and down to 54kg after the claim. Likely to push forward from a wider draw. Market will be a big guide about debutante filly 10. Moon Dancer ($5.50) who hasn't been seen publicly since two easy trials last winter and draws the inside. Include in exotics both provincial three-year-old 1. Carlisle Bay ($11) who resumes off a solid trial and local filly 6. Ale Magic ($6) who returns off a heavy track trial win.

How to play it: Eminencia to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

Like the second-up placement here of three-year-old Godolphin filly 4. Raison D'etre ($3 fav) who draws to get a sweet trail just behind the speed. Stuck on okay resuming from a trickier draw in a deeper race and a leading metro rider sticks solid.

Dangers: Emerging filly 7. Duchess ($5) is a threat third-up on the 12-day turnaround after beating all bar a very promising CL1 winner at Wyong. Progressive four-year-old 3. Explosive Truth ($5) came through some strong maiden form lines last spring before resuming with an impressive front-running provincial win. Will again roll forward from a wide draw but doesn't want it too wet. Keep safe resuming mare 8. Le Me Think ($9.50) who has been given two easy trials, while three-year-old 1. Concealed ($7) is a knock-out chance first-up as a gelding from a soft draw and two quiet trials.

How to play it: Raison D'etre to win and trifecta 3,4,7/1,3,4,7,8/1,3,4,7,8
Odds and Evens: Split

Challenging and even battle, typical of this grade. Tough provincial five-year-old wet tracker 8. Estroverto ($8.50) is well over the odds fourth-up. Roared down the middle to win a similar graded race two runs back before unsuited around the tighter circuit last time and this is the lightest weight he's carried in a long time. Was scratched from the last race to run in this.

Dangers: Progressive three-year-old 9. Marcassin ($2.70 fav) led all the way as a hot favourite resuming in heavy ground at Goulburn and with blinkers applied and a 3.5kg weight drop, will be hard to run down again. Home track mare 1. Liveinthefastlane ($4.60) climbs sharply in weight but finds her easiest race fifth-up this prep. Charged home from well back in both the Provincial Championships Qualifier and the Final itself at Randwick, before buried away with little hope in the Group 3 Hawkesbury Gold Cup. Has the class, but far from convinced the inside barrier on rain-affected ground does her any favours. Included in exotics under-rated country eight-year-old 3. Thistledo ($7) who rarely runs a bad one.

How to play it: Estroverto each way and box exacta 1,8,9
Odds and Evens: Split

Competitive finish over the mile, with talented three-year-old filly 9. Madam Charm ($4) set to go back-to-back third-up in her first real prep. Led all the way to beat a good maiden field at Hawkesbury three weeks back and bred to relish rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Unbeaten three-year-old 1. Sonic Tycoon ($2.90 fav) returns for his first run since mid-January off two improving trials, but the handicapper hasn't missed him with 61kg. Keep safe lightly raced four-year-old 4. Cuban Joe ($7) with blinkers off, and returning to where he won on debut. Honest local four-year-old 3. Wild Chap ($5) is best of the rest.

How to play it: Madam Charm to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS
R2 2. CAPTIVARE ($1.80)
R4 8. EMINENCIA ($3.40)

BEST VALUE
R3 8. PIA SOFIA ($5)

View the final fields with full form & race replays for Kembla Grange here