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By Neil Evans

Track Heavy 10 and rail out 3m

With plenty of rain around, we will settle well into the heavy range. Behind two strong runs back at this track on soft ground over the same distance, tough four-year-old 2. Stay Wealthy is primed to break through. Yet to miss a place in four runs, and gets a senior metro rider going on for what looks a shade weaker race.

Dangers: Speaking of banging on the door, consistent filly 7. Estonia has been the bridesmaid in three runs this prep around the provincials, and gets a 3.5kg weight drop for this, with blinkers being added. Big gap to the rest.

How to play it: Stay Wealthy to win and quinella 2 and 7. Odds and Evens: Split

Modest staying field fits the bill for progressive provincial mare 6. Lady Redwood who traveled well and loomed to win last start before finding one stronger late. Previously had hit the line to beat all bar the winner on rain-affected ground, and she simply has more potential than the rest.

Dangers: Metro stallion 1. Conference will likely roll to the top over this longer trip, and try to repeat the dose from his maiden win 19 days ago when he fought them all off. Honest filly 4. Ironic Miss finished off well at big odds behind a handy stayer, and deep into this prep she's desperate for a longer journey. Include improving three-year-old 8. On Bail in exotics.

How to play it: Lady Redwood to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Progressive three-year-old 6. Caboteur defied his double figure price first-up in metro company on a bog track, only run down late, and he went close at the provincials second-up last time.

Dangers: Lightly raced four-year-old 4. Tailoring has progression on his side as well. Stuck on for a long way after being taken to the front here second-up. Likes wet ground, and should be right at his peak now. Liked the debut effort here from three-year-old 5. Aldrin who did his best work late, and the second horse from that race was the top selection in the opener.

How to play it: Caboteur to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Very keen on provincial four-year-old 3. Bak Da Man who has been held back since sweeping home for a dominant country BM 66 win in heavy ground four weeks ago. Capable of winning over much further, and is a superior wet tracker by Reliable Man.

Dangers: Keep safe last-start maiden winner 7. Lord Winston; while local five-year-old 6. Schoona The Better can run into a place third-up after winning a weaker race nine days ago; and 5. Mon Amore is second-up in conditions she relishes.

How to play it: Bak Da Man to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Potentially a good quality maiden, and stacks up nicely for progressive metro filly 11. Petulant who was heavily backed on debut at Hawkesbury in Class 1 company before being run down. Suited carrying only half kilo more under the set weight conditions.

Dangers: Giant home track four-year-old 2. One Way Street is a key player drawn towards the inside behind a nice debut run when he dashed away and was only run down in the last few strides; while both 3. Foolish and debutant Your Song filly 7. Alucia represent some exotic value..

How to play it: Petulant to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Staying at the short course in a tricky race cut to pieces by scratchings. Provincial five-year-old 9. River Mac finished best to win a similar race five weeks back, and has shown a real liking for rain-affected ground through this prep.

Dangers: Strong wet track mare 12. Mosht Up is an immediate threat after surging late to win a provincial BM 58, then again working home well in metro class on soft ground. Watch the betting on 3. Riccardo who resumes at home, and is already a heavy track winner.

How to play it: River Mac to win and quinella 9 and 12. Odds and Evens: Split

Emerging metro three-year-old 6. Lohnraki came off a dominant country win on debut in heavy ground to finish hard into a place. Race has been severely weakened, looms as the superior wet tracker, and extra 200m suits.

Dangers: Included in exotics 3. Hasty Duchess resuming off two quiet trials; and 11. Winning Business who wasn't far away third-up here in stronger grade.

How to play it: Lohnraki to win. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R4 3. BAK DA MAN
R5 11. PETULANT

BEST VALUE:
R7 6. LOHNRAKI

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Wyong meeting