By Neil Evans
Track likely Soft 6 and Rail out 10m:
Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1300m): |
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We start with the maidens on a surface that may claw its way back into soft range, with the weather clearing. Keen on debutant two-year-old Mikki Isle filly 7. Brok Cafe who starts her career for the Paul Messara stable with key gear additions. Progressed nicely over two spaced trials, winning the latest impressively in Soft 6 ground. Bred to thrive in the wet out of a Hard Spun mare, and she looks well forward enough.
Dangers: Consistent filly 4. Priding has been knocking on the door all prep placed in four of her last five. Led for a long way in a handy country maiden only 11 days ago, and a stronger and senior jockey takes over here. Draws inside, although still a small query on rain-affected ground. Improving filly 8. Cats Quarters who toughed it out in front last start when coming off an eight week let-up; is the clear best of the rest.
How to play it: Brok Cafe to win and quinella 4 and 7
Race 2 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES MAIDEN PLATE (1150m): |
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All aboard Kermadec two-year-old 6. Broadway Bouncer who returns for his first full prep as a gelding behind a pair of improving and fitted trials, working home under a tight hold in the latest. Held his ground okay on debut in a strong provincial maiden where it was hard to make up significant ground, and the depth from that race is a solid pointer for this. Group 1-winning sire was very smart on rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Big watch on three-year-old 3. Externus who resumes for a second prep behind two forward provincial trials, and looks ready to go from a handy trailing draw. Be surprised if one of these two doesn't win; but Written Tycoon two-year-old 7. State Of Light is well in the market, and must be respected after weakening on debut in metro company four weeks back. Big gap to the rest.
How to play it: Broadway Bouncer to win
Race 3 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN PLATE (1150m): |
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The girls' edition is a trickier affair, with some of the early fancies drawn wide. That said, the wraps are big enough for debutant Justify filly 8. Impartial from the Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou yard. Progressed nicely through two trials, chasing home the leader nicely in the most recent after sitting wide, and can overcome the outside barrier here.
Dangers: Another first starter, Kermadec two-year-old 10. Scholl Deep worked to the front and found the line okay in the latest of three recent trials, and wears blinkers. Local three-year-old 1. Beatlemania draws to get a sound trail third-up, and gets on a suitably bigger track. Watch the money around home tracker 4. Gypsy Mountain who finally starts her career in blinkers behind a trial win in soft ground; while 11. She's Got Teeth resumes in blinkers off two trials, and can run into the minor money.
How to pay it: Impartial to win
Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m): |
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Very keen on home track filly 3. Never Sorry who draws to get a soft run right behind the speed second-up. Bred to thrive in the ground being by No Nay Never, and one of her strongest rivals has come out.
Dangers: Lightly raced 2. Golden Fighter can bounce back after going under as a hot favorite in a country CL1 second-up. Gap to the rest headed by 7. See You Again who is deep into the prep, and placed in his last two.
How to play it: Never Sorry to win
Race 5 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (2100m): |
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Not often this grade of galloper goes around over such a journey, and typically the market is open. At great value, though, keen to back tough and improving metro five-year-old 5. Whetu third-up, although has also been accepted for Bathurst. Has run on late in two provincial runs so far this prep, and is screaming now for this longer trip being by Dundeel, especially on rain-affected ground and back a little in class.
Dangers: The betting will tell a big story with progressive country four-year-old 8. Knights Armour who has finished best to easily win in his last two, but this is a significant step up, and he threatens to go around under the odds. Another country-based visitor 2. Roller Coaster can continue to improve third-up; while 3. Turnaround Time swept home to win a weaker race two starts back before again finishing well in a provincial BM 64 16 days ago.
How to play it: Whetu to win
Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m): |
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Plenty of chances in this moderate quality one too headed by underrated seven-year-old 2. Shen Gui who finds an ideal race fifth-up, with the top country jockey back aboard. Has worked home okay under big weights in his last two, and crucially gets back on his preferred rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Tough 1. Indian Thunder is an ultra honest weight carrier and has finished best to win his last two on heavy and soft tracks against weaker opposition; while 4. Golden Breeze; 8. Shamalie and 11. L'esperance Rock all go into trifecta and first four bets.
How to play it: Shen Gui to win
Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1150m): |
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Like local filly 4. Athena Nyx who has trialled okay ahead of her first start in 13 weeks. Normally takes a run to come to hand, but both career wins so far have come on soft ground, and this is weak.
Dangers: Both 7. Dream Eclipse dropping in grade fifth-up; and sparingly raced 8. Shreve, who steps up from a somewhat luckless head defeat at country CL1 level; can figure in the minor money. Resuming 9. Skye Banner is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Athena Nyx to win
BEST BETS:
R2 6. BROADWAY BOUNCER
R4 3. NEVER SORRY
BEST VALUE:
R5 5. WHETU
All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Newcastle meeting