By Neil Evans
Track Heavy 8 and rail out 6m from 1100m to WP & 2m the remainder:
Race 1 PROVINCIAL 3YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1000m): |
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We open up with a set weight sprint on a track that is unlikely to get out of heavy range with more showers forecast. Not much between the top fancies here, although settled on local filly 8. Rare Beauty getting back onto a bigger track second-up. Chased home well enough when resuming at Gosford, and while she's yet to fire on rain-affected ground, the pedigree is there being by Headwater out of a Sebring mare.
Dangers: Another one by Headwater, mare 4. Breadcrumbs has beaten all bar the winner in two runs this prep, bred to handle the going, and any inside draw disadvantage early can be off-set by the rail being pushed out a fair way. Home track mare 6. She's Jessie is also on the improve after being placed in both runs back, and despite only six runs into her career has plenty of heavy track experience. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Rare Beauty to win
Odds and Evens: Evens a special
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m): |
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Out to the mile for the maidens, and keen on improving three-year-old 2. Allhallowtide with the blinkers going on at third start. Missed by a whisker when ridden closer at Newcastle three weeks back, and while this is his first outing on rain-affected ground, the Savabeel stock normally lap it up, and he's suitably drawn to get to the outside.
Dangers: : Big watch on 3. Genetic Freak who has the blinkers coming off at third start in his first full prep, and also bred to get through the ground. Improving 7. We've Gotta Deel presents over the odds after four handy runs up to the mile to open his career; while 11. La Sagrada fourth-up is capable of figuring in the minor money.
How to play it: Allhallowtide to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HCP (2000m): |
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Test of strength and tactics over this journey, and there's a sense of timing with improving and underrated metro five-year-old 7. Reliable Dude who can strike fifth-up. Charged late to miss by a whisker last time at Hawkesbury, and he's clearly more effective on wet ground. Drawn to stay off the fence and get to the middle in the straight.
Dangers: Keep safe 5. Brynner peaking fifth-up; while 8. Dalgarno is down in weight.
How to play it: Reliable Dude to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m): |
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Like metro filly 12. Silent Raindrops who resumes for only her third start behind two measured trials in a race that's now been slashed to only four runners. Found the line from well off the speed in two runs last spring, and while she's never seen anything like a heavy surface, the wet track breeding is a stand-out, by Sebring out of a Stratum mare.
Dangers: Toronado three-year-old 4. Lipscani reloads via a handy trial after a fair debut effort six weeks ago; while 2. Hedge Fund is fourth-up and trained on the track.
How to play it: Silent Raindrops to win
Odds and Evens: Evens a special
Race 5 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m): |
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Ex-Victorian four-year-old 8. Thalursian resumes off a six month spell in his first run for the new Team Hawkes stable. Has trialled well, and has almost been presented this, with the early main market rivals all being scratched.
Dangers: Home track four-year-old 2. Zenti has been up for a while, but drops back from a deeper Provincial Midway Cship Qualifier.
How to play it: Thalursian to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 6 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m): |
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Very competitive market here for a testing all-girls battle. Capable provincial four-year-old 2. The Halo was in the money in three straight runs in and around this grade before working home okay in a tougher Provincial Midway C'ship Qualifier. Shoots back up sharply to 60.5kg, but hard fit and comfortable in the going.
Dangers: Exciting Vancouver three-year-old 13. Vancouver Queen jumped to the front at Muswellbrook on debut and blew her opposition away in good time, but is threatening to go around under the odds up in grade and weight, and being drawn off the track. Improving three-year-old 9. Resistable gets the winkers back on second-up; while 10. Verzenay fifth-up; and first-up country maiden winner 12. Miss Faberge both go in wider exotics.
How to play it: The Halo each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m): |
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The boys' edition to close the card is not much easier. Liked the way progressive metro three-year-old 2. Athletica hit the line from well back first-up at Gosford. Took on good company last year as a two-year-old, and stepping out a further furlong here on a bigger track with some weight relief augurs well.
Dangers: No doubt 4. Capital Asset is fit enough to win this having swept home to land a provincial BM 68 before failing to hit the line in the Listed Canberra Guineas. Won his maiden here, but the inside barrier late in the day may be a pattern disadvantage. Watch the betting on lightly raced four-year-old and last start maiden winner 15. Grand Crusader ; while 6. Sorgente resumes as a gelding off two progressive trials.
How to play it: Athletica to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
BEST BETS:
R2 2. ALLHALLOWTIDE
R4 12. SILENT RAINDROPS
BEST VALUE:
R7 2. ATHLETICA
All the entries, form and replays for Tuesday's Kembla Grange meeting