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Neil Evans' Tips For Kembla Grange (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track Heavy 9 and rail out 6m from 1100m to WP and 4m the remainder:

Race 1 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000m):

Got plenty of time for emerging metro three-year-old stayer 4. Xtrarevz who rallied hard from midfield at Canberra to break through fourth-up in his first full prep. That came off a couple of strong closing maiden runs, and he is kept at the distance.

Dangers: Improving four-year-old import 2. Western Front is the logical threat second-up over more ground with gear changes after working home nicely from well back in a provincial CL1, and that was his first run for nearly 11 months. Keep safe 5. Calm Down who finished hard to win a handy provincial CL1 over a middle distance two starts back. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Xtrarevz to win and box trifecta 2,4,5
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):

Back to the sprint trip, and loved the way four-year-old stallion 2. Nasdaq Dubai put them to the sword here first-up in only his second career start after having two years off. Sat just behind the speed before sweeping past and ran good time. Promising from a strong metro yard, and bred to relish soft ground.

Dangers: Exceed And Excel three-year-old 3. Chopin resumes off two quiet trials, and has shown a liking for rain-affected ground.

How to play it: Nasdaq Dubai to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

Godolphin three-year-old 11. Rakomelo is the one to beat, resuming off two trials. Was competitive enough in much slicker carnival company as a two-year-old, and despite having his first outing for 23 weeks from a tricky draw, looks ready to rip fresh. Placed in his only previous run on heavy ground.

Dangers: Expect sharp third start improvement from 6. Huracanevo who draws the fence, and will find this more to his liking; while 7. I Stole It resumes off two trials.

How to play it: Rakomelo to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

Now the girls' edition in a race that's been cut to ribbons by scratchings. Emerging Godolphin filly 12. Sequestered can improve enough at her second start to win; bred to handle the ground and drawn to get to the outside.

Dangers: Keep safe 3. Poetic Drama third-up and back in preferred rain-affected going.

How to play it: Sequestered to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 MIDWAY CLASS 1 HCP (1500m):

Smart and progressive three-year-old 3. Eyeque can go back-to-back, and rubber-stamp a return to metro assignments. Heavily backed and ridden quieter second-up here before sweeping past for a dominant breakthrough win. Bred to relish any wet ground, and can go on to win much better races than this.

Dangers: Capable 2. Casual Connection may need the run first-up since spring, but he trialled okay, loves rain-affected ground, and should be getting home hard. Home tracker 5. Slickman heads the rest fourth-up.

How to play it: Eyeque to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 6 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):

Progressive home track filly 14. Whisky Wisdom can peak at her third start over a furlong further in what is also a very weakened race. Like the way she's attacked the line from well back in two provincial runs so far, and can thrive getting on a bigger track with a longer run home.

Dangers: Improving filly 12. Rhiannon is hard fit fifth-up; while expect sharp improvement from home track Sebring filly 10. Fooled Again third-up and first time on heavy ground.

How to play it: Whisky Wisdom to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m):

A fairly even and open battle to finish. Like improving Lonhro filly 5. Jewellery who steps up in distance at the right time, and drops back in class. Has hit the line okay in two runs up to BM 78 metro level since a dominant city maiden win from well off the speed, and while this is her first outing on rain-affected ground, she's bred to handle it.

Dangers: Improving metro three-year-old 7. Capital Asset is right at home in this ground second-up. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Jewellery to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

BEST BETS:
R4 12. SEQUESTERED
R6 14. WHISKY WISDOM

BEST VALUE:
R7 5. JEWELLERY

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Kembla Grange meeting

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