By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail out 3m from 1100m to WP & true the remainder
Race 1 CLASS 1 HCP (1500m): |
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Talented and lightly raced metro filly 5. Empress Of Japan had little or no luck at a crucial stage first-up at Newcastle; but still finished off impressively behind a smart winner. Will thrive getting out to this longer journey in what is now a weakened race, and bred to get even further.
Dangers: Plenty more to come from lightly raced 3. Interjection who had to work hard from the trail to claim his maiden first-up at Newcastle as a raging hot favourite, and ready for the extra trip. Progressive 2. Longinus was dominant from the front to claim an average maiden at Canberra at his third start, and well capable of taking the next step. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Empress Of Japan to win
Race 2 MIDWAY CLASS 1 HCP (1200m): |
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Promising filly 7. Catch The Glory is well placed to make it two wins from three starts. Swept home to win a Midway Maiden at this track on debut before being beaten under a length at Wyong 13 days ago in what was a classier race. Can be ridden quieter here from this draw before producing a superior final 350m burst over 100m further.
Dangers: 4. Mogul Monarch has good tactical speed, and strikes a fitness peak third-up. Sparingly raced 2. Contrived comes out of that same race as the on top selection in the opening race. Keep safe 3. Photographics, who drops back sharply from much tougher Group 2 company third-up, and draws inside; and 6. Titanium Miss second-up goes in all exotic plays.
How to play it: Catch The Glory to win
Race 3 PROVINCIAL MAIDEN HCP (1000m): |
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Promising colt 2. The Act can go one better after being outpointed on debut at Wyong as a hot favourite. Has natural cruising speed, gets an important gear change, and the drop back 100m in distance is an obvious plus. The one to beat having been scratched from Canterbury on Wednesday to be saved for this.
Dangers: Watch the betting closely with 5. Bremel by 2016 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist on debut behind two progressive trials. Another one first-up, 4. Monte Braveheart has trialled okay, and drawn to find a nice trail just off the speed. 3. Ausbred Mimosa is the best of the rest, with blinkers going on fourth-up.
How to play it: The Act to win
Race 4 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m): |
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Locally trained mare 4. Fumiko finds the right speed map, resuming off a five month spell, and first time out for the Mitchell Beer stable. Was ultra consistent in deeper Qld metro races last campaign, running home from well back into a place in four of five up to BM 75 grade. Hasn't officially trialled but comes to hand in a heartbeat, with all three career wins from 26 starts coming fresh, and relishes firm ground.
Dangers: Lightly raced 6. Admitted resumes off two forward trials, and tackled Group 3 company at his second start last spring. 3. Nostalgia can improve sharply second-up dropping down from a tougher metro race; while 2. Misty Legend can also improve fourth-up coming back from a BM 72 city affair.
How to play it: Fumiko to win
Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1300m): |
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Emerging filly 13. Just Feelin' Lucky is primed to return off a 21 week break with a bang at just her third start. Did it too tough in two runs against handy two-year-old company in autumn, but given plenty of time, and has been well fitted with two trials up to 1045m.
Dangers: Naturally being fitter, drawn inside and back from a deeper metro Super Maiden, 9. Imperial State will be hard to hold out over a fraction more ground. 11. Be Quiet hits peak fitness fourth-up, with good weight relief; and 7. Oceanfront is on debut behind two forward trials; and goes in all exotic plays.
How to play it: Just Feelin' Lucky to win
Race 6 SUPER MAIDEN HCP (1500m): |
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Improving filly 9. November Air is primed to break through at her fourth start over a furlong further. Like the way she's finished off at the provincials in her last two, and this shapes as a peaking distance.
Dangers: Progressive colt 4. Great White Shark is the natural threat after hitting the line hard from a mile back resuming in a handy metro maiden. Bred to get further and will thrive getting to a much bigger track. Keep safe 3. Blacklist second-up over more ground with a 2kg weight drop. 6. Saint Emilion needs to tuck in from a wide gate, but there was plenty to like about his debut run at Newcastle when attacking the line late from midfield.
How to play it: November Air to win
Race 7 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1500m): |
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This shapes as an ideal third-up stepping stone for progressive mare 3. Colours Of Autumn 16 days after she finished hard to thrash a provincial CL1 field as a red hot favorite. Back up to a grade where she roared home to miss narrowly at this track the start prior, so this is well within her scope. Being by potential super sire The Autumn Sun, a long and spacious track and a further 150m are right up her alley.
Dangers: Watch the betting on 1. Cheval Savant, resuming for a powerhouse stable off a nice 1207m trial. 12. Foolish is very fit; and can add value into exotic returns; while staying four-year-old 8. Coto De Caza is the best of the rest, resuming behind two trials.
How to play it: Colours Of Autumn
BEST BETS:
R3 2. THE ACT
R7 3. COLOURS OF AUTUMN
BEST VALUE:
R4 4. FUMIKO
All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Kembla Grange meeting