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Neil Evans' Tips For Kembla Grange (Thursday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail out 3m:

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):

Loved the first-up run of metro four-year-old 1. Burns To Embrace on the testing Wyong circuit where he tracked the speed from a wide gate before only being collared in the final strides. UK-bred to get over far more ground, so the switch to the more spacious circuit here with a longer straight is ideal. Meets the main market rival at level weights after a 2kg claim.

Dangers: Naturally, progressive Godolphin filly 4. Nanshe is a clear threat second-up. Also better suited here after making up plenty of ground fresh at Gosford, although wouldn't be diving into too short a price from a tricky gate. Be surprised if anything else wins, but keep safe lightly raced 2. Huracanevo who has ability, and gets a string of key gear changes, including blinkers going on. Reboots off a 34-day provincial turnaround where he worked home just fair after being heavily backed, but has trialled since and will also relish the bigger track. Invader two-year-old 7. Invade And Conquer is the best of the rest third-up.

How to play it: Burns To Embrace to win and quinella 1 and 4

Race 2 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1500m):

Still with the maidens over a furlong further, and lightly raced three-year-old 1. Enotis is well placed to break through second-up in only his second prep. Didn't fire in two Victorian runs earlier in the year, but a spell and switch to NSW has seemingly flicked the switch judging by the way he motored home fresh at Hawkesbury. Goes up only half kilo here on what looks a slightly thinner race.

Dangers: From a soft draw, 2. Yet He Moves can run a big race first-up off a metro trial win; while 10. The Riddler was flat late and disappointing at the provincials second-up after tracking into the race nicely, although the quick back-up and the addition of blinkers are pivotal. Included in trifecta and first fours, both 3. Our Maryanne coming through that same race as the top selection when on debut; and 4. Rabairneach who has been in and around the money in his last four.

How to play it: Enotis to win

Race 3 MIDWAY 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Plenty of chances here in what is a tough maiden. Like progressive metro filly 10. Decisive Lass second-up in her second prep. Came off two trials to settle well back here before making up plenty of late ground, and drops 2kg for this from a softer draw where she can find early cover.

Dangers: Big watch on 3. Candlelit resuming off two progressive trials, winning the latest and breaking 34 secs for his last 600m. Must include provincial filly 9. Amberina who has worked home well to beat all bar the winner in her last two at Wyong, and sneaks back down in the weights. Both 5. I Stole It fourth-up; and 7. Galactic Miss second-up; go through the exotics.

How to pay it: Decisive Lass to win

Race 4 2YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

Now the youngsters lock horns in another competitive market sprint. Like Street Boss filly 13. Rockabilly Rebel who chased home a smart and dominant winner first-up at Wyong, and profiles even better on the bigger track. Was scratched from Warwick Farm on Wednesday to be saved for this.

Dangers: Watch the betting naturally on home track Nicconi colt 15. Well Timed who resumes off a trial win for only his second start. The market will also be a big indicator with Trapeze Artist filly 11. Lady Of Poise who debuts behind two recent and progressive trials for the Waterhouse-Bott stable. Another one second-up, 8. Full Revolution is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Rockabilly Rebel to win

Race 5 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m):

All aboard talented filly and early favorite 10. Dancing Alone resuming behind two city trial wins. Unbeaten from two wins last prep, and looks even stronger this time in. Has serious cruising speed, and back in early February ran a blistering 31.66 secs for her final 600m in winning a CL1.

Dangers: Got plenty of time for 2. Boomsong who can run the quinella 22 days after claiming a similar graded race from just off the speed. Drawn the fence third-up, 3. Vegas Raider, 5. Sunzou resuming; and 12. Satin And Silk third up off a maiden win at this track; can all fight for the minor money.

How to play it: Dancing Alone to win

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1500m):

Strong line-up for this class. There was plenty to like about the third-up maiden win of improving filly 5. Double Scoop who draws to find a trail with cover. By a Group 1 winner at the mile, and will run out the little extra trip strong.

Dangers: Consistent and tough filly 6. Queen Astrid draws to get a soft run just behind the speed, and hasn't been out of the placings in four runs this prep. Included in trifecta and first fours, both 2. Tango And Fame third-up with a key gear change; and 4. Lysander who steps up in distance at the right time.

How to play it: Double Scoop to win

Race 7 PROVINCIAL BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1300m):

The toughest and most tactical race on the program. Keen on talented four-year-old 8. Stars And Bars at the value. Has hit the line hard from well back in his last two across slightly weaker company, but gets back to the trip over which he bolted in a provincial maiden in early May. Will settle back off a solid speed and be strong late.

Dangers: Watch the betting on locally-trained 13. Slickman who can improve further second-up after attacking the line fresh at country level; while 2. Star Mission second-up from a better draw; 5. Mr Rock It who is hard fit with weight relief; and 9. Rapid Outlaw dropping in weight; all go into trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Stars And Bars to win

Race 8 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000m):

We close the meeting over the longer trip, and it shapes well for progressive metro three-year-old 7. Deep Voyage who continues his gradual rise in trip fourth-up. Keeps progressing, sweeping home to miss narrowly in a handy country maiden two starts back before rubber-stamping that form when dominant from the front at Hawkesbury 11 days ago. Carries half kilo less here, and will go on to win better races.

Dangers: Honest stallion 3. Fleet Commander finally gets on to a bigger track fourth-up, and draws to get a soft run. At bigger odds, keep safe 8. Earl Of Devon third-up; while 10. The Professor off an impressive fourth-up maiden win can run into the minor money.

How to play it: Deep Voyage to win

BEST BETS:
R2 1. ENOTIS
R3 10. DECISIVE LASS

BEST VALUE:
R7 8. STARS AND BARS

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Kembla Grange meeting

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