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Neil Evans' Tips For Kembla Grange (Thursday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail out 3m from 1100m to WP & true the remainder:

Race 1 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):

Not much between the leading contenders in the opening sprint, but settled on promising filly 5. Invincible Madison who is out to make it two straight this prep. Was heavily backed before bouncing to the front in a handy maiden at Canberra and giving nothing else a chance. That was only her third start coming off a five month spell, and staying at the distance and dropping 2kg for this, there's a tonne of progress on offer.

Dangers: Similarly, well bred 2. Majestuoso Phoenix was very impressive on debut sweeping home from midfield to beat a decent maiden field at Wyong. Small gap to the rest headed by 4. Art's Alive resuming from a soft draw behind two progressive trials; while lightly raced 3. Stormfield bolted in a country maiden when resuming running a slick time, but this is much tougher. Include in trifecta and first fours, 1. Cryptonic who draws the inside third-up.

How to play it: Invincible Madison to win

Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1600m):

Out to the mile in a similar class, and it shapes as an ideal race for improving 1. How Much Better who has beaten all but the winner in two runs back from a break. Hits peak fitness now in a race with a little less depth, and the extra 100m is a further plus.

Dangers: Plenty of respect for 2. Lucky Bay who is hard fit and working towards an overdue second career win, and crucially winkers replace blinkers. Keep safe 5. Sir Sublime who was very weak after leading comfortably at the Sapphire Coast, but much better suited on firmer ground, with a sharp drop in weight. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: How Much Better to win

Race 3 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000m):

Can't go past progressive four-year-old 2. Tastula who is hard fit, draws the inside, and reloads off a dominant metropolitan win when rock solid in the market. Had previously rushed home late behind the winner at this course before the easy win at Canterbury, and drew to get a lovely trail in behind, only needing a clear run from the top of the straight. Boosted further by one of the few rivals in the race coming out.

Dangers: 10. Sacro Catino gets blinkers on third-up coming out of that same race as the top selection; while 3. Unowho improves significantly second-up off a long break.

How to play it: Tastula to win

Race 4 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

An older maiden battle looks the ticket for emerging four-year-old 6. Shambretta who was close-up on debut at Hawkesbury right in the market. Fitter now, and is nicely drawn to get a similar run tucked in behind.

Dangers: Progressive mare 10. Oh Diamond Lil almost defied a significant market first-up when beaten under a length at Canterbury. Bred to get further, and should also obtain a lovely run just off speed with cover. Be surprised if one of those two doesn't win, but 1. Altair I Am can improve further third-up with winkers back on. Don't dismiss home tracker 8. Montigo Bay at good odds after charging home from the back at Hawkesbury into a place second-up, and gets further weight relief here.

How to play it: Shambretta to win

Race 5 MIDWAY MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

One of the more testing races on the program, but there's plenty to like about lightly raced three-year-old 3. Dark Gleam who resumes off a 22 week spell and forward trial. Rushed home late to beat all bar the winner in a handy provincial maiden in mid July before spelling. That was only his third start coming off a month-long freshening, and he's always shown an ability to react when on the fresh side. Starts this campaign first time without blinkers, and subsequently should settle comfortably off the speed and be taken to the middle of the track at the top of the lane.

Dangers: Big watch on 4. Tikiroo, resuming for only his third start off two progressive trials. Included in all exotic plays, both 1. Artifactx fourth-up with weight relief; and home tracker 2. Donwon who draws the fence deep into his first full prep.

How to play it: Dark Gleam to win

Race 6 SUPER 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Plenty of chances here, headed by exciting Randwick colt 13. Walk The Pier who shapes to go one better over 100m further after charging home from the back at this track on debut to miss by a long neck. Was backed from $3.40 into $2.70 that day, and the winner of the race was then beaten narrowly in a handy CL1 at Hawkesbury next start. Had spent much of the year being educated and trialling, and given 26 days between runs, he's very well placed here.

Dangers: Naturally, big watch on debutant filly 14. Mama Joy, a stablemate of the top selection from the John O'Shea and Tom Charlton yard. Fitted with two easy trials, carries key gear additions, and bred to get much further being by Dundeel out of a Street Cry mare. 1. Carnegie Hill is good value third-up after finding the line well in two runs back, and winkers replace blinkers for the first time. Keep watch too on 15. Secure reloading for only his second start from a low draw and via a nice trial after a fair debut at Canterbury; while 7. Overland can improve off a tidy closing debut effort and run into minor money.

How to play it: Walk The Pier to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1400m):

Like talented and lightly raced 14. Pocketing who is well placed to strike second-up at just his fourth start in what is now a weakened race. Came off a three month break to power home, only missing by a neck at Hawkesbury in a race run in much quicker times than two others over 1300m on that day.

Dangers: Keep safe 10. Pure Hydrogen who resumes off two progressive trials with gear changes. 5. American Starlet is over the odds back in grade third-up with a gear change; while 4. Toes In The Water is the best of the rest second-up over a furlong further.

How to play it: Pocketing to win

BEST BETS:
R3 2. TASTULA
R4 6. SHAMBRETTA

BEST VALUE:
R6 13. WALK THE PIER

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Kembla Grange meeting

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