By Neil Evans
Track Soft 5 and rail out 4m from 1100m to 450m & True the remainder:
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m): |
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Small and tactical field of maidens over the middle distance to kick us off. Metro mare 3. Princess Rayaa has continued to improve creeping up in distances this prep, and is ready to peak fourth-up. Like she's done in her last couple against deeper opposition, should park right behind the speed with cover, and be given her head from the 400m.
Dangers: Two Chris Waller-trained runners can mount a challenge, starting with progressive 1. Gago who worked home nicely resuming in that same provincial race as the top selection when backed from $4.80 into $3.90. Stablemate 2. Yet He Moves resumes for only his third start off a strong city trial win, and gets first use of the inside. Big gap to the rest headed by 8. Supreme Command who also steps up in trip fourth-up having beaten all bar the winner in his last two.
How to play it: Princess Rayaa to win and quinella 1 and 3
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1100m): |
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Back to the maiden sprint trip, and this could prove to be a handy form reference. Like Winning Rupert mare 3. Struff resuming for only her second start. Has won both lead-up trials narrowly on Soft 5 ground, although was ridden out through traffic to claim the latest, but this is a weakened affair with one of the main rivals coming out.
Dangers: Keep safe 9. Just Gisella also first-up for just her second start, with gear changes behind two improving trials; while debutant Zoustar mare 4. Alvina's Luck; heads the rest.
How to play it: Struff to win
Race 3 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1300m): |
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The older maidens now over further, and metro four-year-old 4. Crazy Russian is well placed to hit the ground running off a four month spell. Continually found the line through last prep in deeper provincial races up to 1500m, and off a quiet trial he can launch fresh here.
Dangers: Peaking fourth-up, progressive 7. Prince Of Wales gets blinkers added. Improving 2. Avonview was sound on debut when finishing off well at Kembla, but under the set weight conditions and drawn wide is under the odds. Both 3. Charlie Foxtrot second-up over more ground; and 11. Harper's Siren third-up from a soft draw with winkers added; can run into the minor money.
How to play it: Crazy Russian to win
Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1500m): |
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On an 11-day back-up, metro four-year-old 5. Reggie's Folly can improve significantly after hitting the line late in a similar graded race at Newcastle.
Dangers: Last start provincial maiden winner over the mile 1. Dancemania is also at peak fitness fifth-up, and gets a charmed run behind the speed. Gap to the rest headed by 3. Marvelous who drops in weight off a fair effort at country level. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Reggie's Folly to win
Race 5 MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1800m): |
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Tricky affair over this distance. Honest provincial mare 7. Nautical Miss gets her chance here from the inside draw over a furlong further. Has been just behind the placegetters all prep in races with generally more depth, and naturally can sit closer from this gate, and be saved for one last surge.
Dangers: Plenty of them starting with improving 5. Celestial Fury who chased home dominant winner Satness second-upin that same race as the top selection, and desperate now for more ground. Keep safe too 6. Kozluca who did it tough well back from a wide barrier in that Kembla race, but better suited here over further and back on home track. Honest 1. Jack Duggan and 8. Nyota, both third-up and also coming out of that same last start formline, can run into the miney and pump value into exotic bets.
How to play it: Nautical Miss to win
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1300m): |
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Lightly raced provincial three-year-old 5. Broadway Bouncer can make it two straight this prep over 100m further. Was heavily backed before finishing best to win a handy maiden fresh, and carrying a kilo less here from the same draw, he's ready to take the next step up.
Dangers: Provincial mare 4. Never Sorry was a certainty beaten second-up at Newcastle on that same day when badly held up and checked in the straight. Still picked up and found the line, and gets a nice 2.5kg weight drop; while 1. Lady Harlem and honest 9. Bully For You; both improving second-up; go into exotic plays.
How to play it: Broadway Bouncer to win
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m): |
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Like progressive metro mare 4. Elegant Empress to pounce third-up from an ideal trailing draw. Boxed on from the front in a tougher metro race when resuming before tracking the speed and finishing well enough at Gosford against similar opposition.
Dangers: Big market watch on stablemate mare 1. Glacier Queen who returns off a long absence via two progressive and recent trials, bolting in the latest, and has plenty of ability. Keep safe 7. Los Padres second-up; while 9. Clovelly gets an economical run from the inside draw second-up; and 3. Sunzou also improves second-up.
How to play it: Elegant Empress to win
BEST BETS:
R3 4. CRAZY RUSSIAN
R7 4. ELEGANT EMPRESS
BEST VALUE:
R5 7. NAUTICAL MISS
All the entries, form and replays for Tuesday's Hawkesbury meeting