By Neil Evans
Track likely Heavy 9 and rail out 3m from 1100m to 450m and True the remainder.
Race 1 2YO MAIDEN HCP (1400m): |
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Very testing assignment for the youngsters on a track well into heavy range, although all but one debutant have had invaluable experience on rain-affected ground. Trained on the track Deep Field colt 1. Deft Leopard can improve enough to break through second-up after working home okay behind a promising winner at Warwick Farm who led all the way.
Dangers: By So You Think, 2. Monastery comes out of that same race when making late ground, and blinkers can sharpen him further, but rises 2.5kg. Watch the betting on provincial-based Turn Me Loose colt 3. Extreme Freedom who debuts behind two improving trials, and bred to handle the going. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Deft Leopard to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1300m): |
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Small but competitive field of maidens headed by metro filly 7. Misty Dreams who worked home well first-up at Kembla when solid in the market. By prolific wet track sire Sebring, and sneaks down to the limit weight. The one to beat.
Dangers: Progressive filly 6. Sequin Dress showed good improvement at her second start, hitting the line late in that same provincial maiden, and the extra 100m is a plus.
How to play it: Misty Dreams to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m): |
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Promising Tavistock filly 9. Tavi L'amour will likely jump a short-priced fancy second-up, and it's hard to make a case against her rising to the mile. Returned with a strong closing effort in deeper metro company, and looks well treated carrying 1kg less back at the provincials.
Dangers: Sebring-sired 2. Maralago didn't fire a shot on a big track second-up after being bumped at the start, and then overracing. His previous effort, though, in heavy ground was solid, and he's been given four weeks between runs. Country filly 8. Stella Glow is clear best of the rest second-up behind a solid closing return run.
How to play it: Tavi L'amour to win and quinella 2 and 9
Odds and Evens: Split a special
Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1500m): |
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Local mare 4. Coppersonic is fit and honest enough fourth-up, and her best form including a maiden win last spring is clearly at home.
Dangers: Keep safe at bigger odds metro three-year-old 2. Roccaforte who gets nice weight relief stepping up from a narrow maiden win at the provincials; while stablemate to the top selection 7. Luna Eagle can run into a place.
How to play it: Coppersonic to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 5 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m): |
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Unbeaten ex-Qld four-year-old 1. King Charming is the one to beat, resuming for a new metro stable off two forward trials. First time in heavy ground, but is bred to handle it.
Dangers: Watch the betting too on provincial mare 4. Black Jacamar who dug deep to win first-up in a weaker country grade.
How to play it: King Charming to win and quinella 1 and 4
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1300m): |
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Progressive mare 6. Buba chased hard when resuming at Kembla. Right at home on heavy tracks, and race severely weakened by scratchings.
Dangers: Consistent mare 9. Irish Kisses is overdue to score a second win ahead of her 10th start, but also thrives in the wet, and hit the line into a place in weaker grade last start.
How to play it: Quinella: 6 and 9
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1300m): |
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The most open race of the day is saved for last, and there's a stack of value aboard improving metro four-year-old 5. Marvelous who can go back-to-back third-up. Worked home okay resuming at Canberra before charging over the top in a handy maiden at Kembla in heavy ground, and drawn to get ideal cover around midfield.
Dangers: Provincial three-year-old 3. The Bullring is a threat second-up after finishing on from the back in a similar race here 19 days ago; while four-year-old 1. Tick Tock Boom is second-up.
How to play it: Marvelous each way
Odds and Evens: Odds
BEST BETS:
R1 1. DEFT LEOPARD
R2 7. MISTY DREAMS
BEST VALUE:
R7 5. MARVELOUS
All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Hawkesbury meeting