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Neil Evans' Tips For Hawkesbury (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track improving to Soft 7 and rail out 3m from 1100m to 450m and True the remainder

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

We start on a track that has improved into soft range. Smart Deep Field three-year-old 3. Assiduity looks ready to go for a second prep off a forward trial. Hit the line from well back in two runs last spring, and stable has always had a healthy opinion.

Dangers: Resuming mare 4. Bel Suono has had two improving trials, and trainer has shown his hand scratching the more fancied stablemate; while 5. Elusive Birdie heads the rest second-up.

How to play it: Assiduity to win and quinella 3 and 4
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1500m):

Competitive and tactical middle distance contest. Liked the way four-year-old 6. Mandalorian hit the line from near last, resuming in a handy provincial CL1. Steps up now to his pet trip, and down a significant 2.5kg for this slightly stronger field. Over the odds.

Dangers: The leading metro stable has shown a confident hand resuming ex-Kiwi four-year-old 4. Za Ceibas over this distance, and only win so far came on debut across the Tasman nearly a year ago. Mixed performances against tougher opposition in his first prep here, but top jockey takes the ride off a quiet trial. Provincial three-year-old 3. Shorebreak dug in hard to claim his maiden here at third start. Improving four-year-old 1. California Lynx defied a longer-price betting drift to sweep home and land his maiden on heavy ground at third outing, and 100m further only looks a plus; while local 2. Riviera Blue struggled last time out at BM 64 level, but will find this a touch easier from a better draw.

How to play it: Mandalorian each way and first four 3,4,6/1,2,3,4,6/1,2,3,4,6/1,2,3,4,6
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):

The best is still in front of Ocean Park three-year-old 6. Toesonthenose who resumes for a second prep. Showed good progression from off-speed in two provincial runs to start his career in spring, and well prepared for the journey here trialling strongly over 1050m.

Dangers: Keep safe tough three-year-old 1. Baranof who drops back sharply from metro class and has a big fitness edge on the rest. Improving 8. Vaneto can peak third-up drawn to get better cover; while 9. Calm Down resuming behind two trials heads the rest.

How to play it: Toesonthenose to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 2YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

The babies lock horns here over the sprint trip, and exciting colt 1. Captain Bond looms as the clear one to beat on debut. Another one by 2016 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist who has won both trials in smart fashion and draws to get a charmed run.

Dangers: Watch the betting on beautifully-bred colt 4. Csar who debuts for a leading metro stable off progressive trials, and with key gear additions. Is by dual Group 1-winning sprinter Russian Revolution out of a Teofilo mare. I Am Invincible colt 3. Compelling Truth switches back closer to home after a fair debut at Ballarat in heavy ground. Written Tycoon gelding 8. Long Tycoon also faces the starter for the first time off two handy trials; while local Sooboog colt 2. Chain Of Gold can fill a place on debut.

How to play it: Captain Bond to win and quinella 1 and 4
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m):

Progressive filly 3. Chimes led for a long way first-up in a handy provincial Cl1, and can peak dropping in weight. Was preferred here to Wednesday's metropolitan meeting.

Dangers: Lightly raced three-year-old 4. Mr Burgundy resumes off a nice trial, and is clear best of the rest; while included in exotics lightly raced country filly 9. Brief Statement second-up.

How to play it: Chimes to win.
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 6 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000m):

Promising provincial three-year-old 8. Lukey Luke is ready for this longer trip third-up. Stalked the speed here two weeks ago before careering away to win by more than four lengths, and dropping 1kg for this he's the one to beat.

Dangers: Another three-year-old 7. Anythink Goes is a threat fifth-up. Went too hard in front last start at Newcastle and was gunned down late, but if he takes a sit behind them here will take some holding out. Expecting sharp improvement second-up from high class staying four-year-old 4. Let's Karaka Deel who did next to nothing first-up from a long break in a CL1 at Canberra when an easing short-priced favourite. Better suited here, although still may need the run. Included in wider exotics 12. Great Mystery.

How to play it: Lukey Luke to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m):

Competitive closer which may prove to be a strong form race. Got a stack of time for exciting and unbeaten three-year-old 4. This'llbetheone who resumes for a second prep. Was strong through the line winning both starts last prep, and looks well prepared for this trip finishing close-up in two searching trials.

Dangers: Progressive three-year-old 2. Devil's Throat (also accepted for Canterbury) has been given six weeks via a nice trial since bursting through late to beat a good quality metro maiden field third-up. Gap to the rest headed by 1. Derbari third-up from a softer draw; and 9. Zelady Luck who led all the way in dominant fashion second-up in a country BM 66.

How to play it: This'llbetheone to win
Odds and Evens: Evens

BEST BETS:
R3 6. TOESONTHENOSE
R6 8. LUKEY LUKE

BEST VALUE:
R2 6. MANDALORIAN

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Hawkesbury meeting

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