By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail true.
Race 1 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1100m): |
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The older maidens get us rolling over a sprint trip on a track that is likely to improve back into Good range. After being run down late in his last two, metro four-year-old 2. Exsensible rates on top. Draws nicely to roll forward and again take control at only his fourth start in a race with less depth, and the eight day back-up is a further pointer.
Dangers: Big watch on 3. Hamaki, who resumes with gear adjustments for a leading metro yard behind two forward city trials. Keep safe too 4. Mr Kennedy first-up for a new Randwick stable from the inside draw behind two progressive trials. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Exsensible to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1800m): |
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Keen to take on the early short-priced favourite here with improving and consistent metro mare 12. Calm Down third-up. Has finished off well in two provincial runs back from a five month spell, and she can peak over a furlong further. Draws to get nice cover off the speed, and is clearly over the odds with blinkers back on.
Dangers: Improving 2. Count On Me is suited up 300m in distance second-up; while 8. Mikasa goes in trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Calm Down to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1400m): |
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Liked the provincial debut effort of Warwick Farm-based 1. Amor Victorious who sat behind the speed before missing narrowly. Draws okay again, and should be adaptable anywhere up to a mile, being by super Northern Hemisphere sprinter Caravaggio. Had previously trialled in smart fashion. Was scratched from Wednesday's Wyong meeting to be saved for this.
Dangers: Big respect too for 10. Always In who was even more impressive on debut the same day as the top selection, flooding home from last to miss by a long head. The extra trip is a big plus, but again will have to slide back from a wide gate. This shapes as a nice trip too for improving 14. Zip On By dropping in weight at her third start; while watching the betting at big odds on Reliable Man gelding 5. More Saintly who makes his debut with key gear additions, and behind three trials in 24 days.
How to play it: Amor Victorious to win and quinella 1 & 10
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 MIDWAY MAIDEN HCP (1100m): |
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One of the tougher and widest battles on the program, with many chances. Hard to ignore the value of Randwick-based American Pharoah colt 5. Pharoah Magic who starts his career behind two eye-catching and forward trials, the latest ridden hard to find the front and again pushed out late, suggesting he's ready to race.
Dangers: Provincial-based 6. Sir Tom has more improvement after chasing home a smart winner at only his second start. Honest filly 10. Bubba's Bay stuck on okay at her second start after tracking the speed here 11 days ago. Must include in exotics Rubick three-year-old 9. Pudacious resuming as a gelding off two tidy trials; and 12. Majeedis who draws wide first-up for nearly six months, but comfortably won a trial on the track and has plenty of natural ability.
How to play it: Pharoah Magic each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 BENCHMARK 64 HCP - HEAT OF THE RISING STAR (1000m): |
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Back to the shorter trip for a Heat of the Rising Star, and it lines up nicely for exciting three-year-old Hellbent filly 2. Luna Rocks resuming off a seven month break. Bolted in from the front at his second start against metro opposition back in autumn, and looked sharp winning the second of two recent trials. Wraps have always been big, and she looms as the one to beat.
Dangers: Godolphin four-year-old 1. Oryx also has his share of ability, and can make a fresh statement here, resuming for a second prep behind a nice trial win. Another metro 1st-up player is 9. Extraweird who returns from the inside barrier off two impressive open class trials, and with blinkers coming off. Gap to the rest headed by 7. Paper Daisy third-up; while 6. Lambdoma Energy fourth-up from a softer draw is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Luna Rocks to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 SUMMER PROVINCIAL SERIES FINAL (1600m): |
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Typically there are plenty of chances in the feature over a mile at set weights and penalties. Keen at the value of five-year-old mare 5. Galaxy Belle who is right at her top fifth-up this prep behind a dominant off-speed heat win 12 days ago. All her best form is on firm ground, and she loves to settle back behind a solid speed and finish over the top.
Dangers: Rival Novacastrian 6. Awesome Lad also shapes well deep into his prep. Beat a small heat field here two runs back as an odds-on fancy before just fair to the line in the BM 94 Mudgee Cup. Capable six-year-old 1. Bethencourt loves this trip and comes off an impressive heat win, but still faces a big task carrying 60.5kg from a wide draw. Trained on the track, 9. Showtime Lady led all the way to win her heat before an even effort against BM 72 metro opposition. If she gets across okay from the tricky gate, will be right in the finish. On-speed stablemate 11. Sonic Tycoon is over the odds third-up from the inside draw, with blinkers coming off; while last start heat winner 12. Burning Need loves dry ground, and goes into exotic bets.
How to play it: Galaxy Belle each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1400m): |
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A likely three-horse battle looms for favouritism in the finale. Like underrated Randwick four-year-old 3. Baranof who is ready to pounce again fifth-up. Scored a dominant maiden win at the provincials three starts back before driving late to miss by a head in a CL1 here 11 days ago. More effective when he's ridden a little quieter, and winkers replace blinkers for the first time.
Dangers: Emerging three-year-old 4. Bat Out Of Hell has won two from three to launch his career, and has been given three weeks since a solid CL1 win at Wyong.
How to play it: Baranof to win
Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R5 2. LUNA ROCKS
R7 3. BARANOF
BEST VALUE:
R2 12. CALM DOWN
All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Hawkesbury meeting