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Neil Evans' Tips For Hawkesbury (Thursday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely improving to Good 4 & rail True

Race 1 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

Four-year-old Snitzel stallion 2. Nasturtium has been held back by a leading metropolitan stable, having not been seen publicly since a nice heavy track trial in mid July. Reportedly been working strongly, and debuts with important gear applications.

Dangers: Rival mare 8. Kyalla stuck on okay from a wide draw in that same provincial race; while 4. Classy Gal leads the remainder.

How to play it: Nasturtium to win. Odds and Evens: Evens.

Race 2 PROV & CTRY MAIDEN HCP (1100m):

Very competitive maiden. Resuming provincial mare 1. Starboreta looks hard to beat first-up from a handy draw off the back of two tidy trial wins. Bred to fly, and blinkers have been removed.

Dangers: Trained on the track, Dissident filly 5. Hayami also resumes after two progressive trials, and the rider sticks for race day. Big market watch on provincial filly 3. Changing Lanes who debuts from the inside draw behind a couple of improving trials, and stable loves to get them ready fresh; while local 7. Italian Informant fifth-up; and 6. Holy Tycoon first-up; both go in wider exotics.

How to play it: Starboreta to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 3 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1800m):

Plenty of chances in this at set weights, but keen and very forgiving of four-year-old mare 4. Al Sahara who pulled up with a slow recovery rate after failing at Warwick Farm two weeks back. Had previously swept home for a dominant country CL1 win, and despite only one success and eight placings from 13 starts, she's capable of winning much deeper races than this.

Dangers: Another mare well on the rise is 5. Bedford Square coming off a smart second-up maiden win at Wyong over the mile. More depth here, but she's still improving and draws to park right behind the speed. Keep safe improving filly 6. Beenvane who steps up from a narrow maiden win in heavy ground here at just her second start; while 3. Socrates is hard to follow and well beaten in a tougher grade last start, but he's capable of running home into a place.

How to play it: Al Sahara to win and box exacta 4,5,6. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Progressive metro three-year-old 3. Famous Pedrille should have won third-up at Newcastle when held up for a long time before hitting the line late. Suited over more ground now, with a little fitness edge, and a stronger rider takes over.

Dangers: Talented three-year-old 5. Roma Avenue did plenty wrong on debut at Warwick Farm but still managed to run into a place, and this is a nice follow-up assignment on a suitably bigger track. Watch the betting on Helmet three-year-old 2. Crown Duke who debuts in blinkers behind a string of quiet trials.

How to play it: Famous Pedrille to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1400m):

Tough eight-year-old 7. Nicochet has chased home valiantly in his last three at this track, and back on firmer ground can finally snap a drought that stretches back to July 2019. Hard fit for this trip, and he'll position back in the field with cover and produce a surging finish.

Dangers: Metro three-year-old 3. Catapult gets the class drop he needs deep into the prep. Has done his best work last three in tougher city grades, and looks well placed at the weights after the claim back in this company. Honest seven-year-old 2. Safado has lacked a turn of foot in four runs back, but he'll find this easier than his last couple, and the 2kg claim is vital. Gap to the rest headed by local five-year-old 1. Mr Bond first-up off a trial under a big weight with blinkers removed.

How to play it: Nicochet to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 6 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1400m):

Now the girls' edition, and sticking hard with provincial three-year-old 1. Sweet Ruby down in grade after failing fourth-up on the Kensington track where she copped a savage check just before the turn. Rider also claimed she resented racing inside horses, so expect her to sit wider here, and she gets back in okay at the weights after the 2kg claim.

Dangers: Had to like how promising home track three-year-old 5. Short Shorts tracked the speed and took over for an easy win on debut beating a handy one who should have saluted at the Beaumont track on Monday. Winkers have been added, and bred to get further. Expecting sharp improvement fourth-up from metro three-year-old 4. My Snow Queen back on a firmer surface; while a pair of four-year-olds, fit local mare 3. Borsalina and 2. Little River fourth-up, both go in exotic plays.

How to play it: Sweet Ruby to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 7 BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1100m):

Not a strong race for this grade, and that augurs well for lightly raced mare 8. Passistas who has been close-up in three straight BM 64s at the provincials, and gets significant weight relief. Has more scope than the rest, and little drop in distance is also a plus. Finished less than four lengths from Sweet Ruby a month ago, and she goes around in the previous so the formline can present. Was scratched from Wyong on Wednesday to be saved for this.

Dangers: Big watch on provincial mare 7. Oakfield Arrow who resumes off a solid trial, and has good credentials for this. South Coast four-year-old 3. Dragons Breath is a shade over the odds after a tough first-up win at country BM 66 level. Watch the betting on ex-Qld mare 1. Lepreezy having her first start for the new Warwick Farm stable. Won a stack of weak races at Rockhampton and Mackay much earlier in her career, and this will test.

How to play it: Passistas to win. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R3 4. AL SAHARA
R6 1. SWEET RUBY

BEST VALUE:
R7 8. PASSISTAS

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Hawkesbury meeting

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