By Neil Evans
Track likely Soft 5 and rail out 2m from 100m to 450m & true the remainder:
Race 1 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):) |
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Provincial-based three-year-old 3. Kissing Supido is well placed here second-up with first use of the inside. Wasn't beaten far when resuming at Gosford, and fitter now, he can track the speed before being produced over the final stage.
Dangers: Naturally, drawn right alongside and also coming off an encouraging fresh run at the provincials, 8. Miss Adamas is a big threat. Went close second-up in only previous prep, and drops 3kg for this. Keep safe too 2. Flying Birds back in distance third-up.
How to play it: Kissing Supido to win and quinella 3 and 8
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 2YO MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):) |
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Handy depth and potential in this juvenile maiden, and plenty of chances. Like the value around country-based 3. Ferro Vero who worked to the line okay behind a smart metro winner 18 days, and that horse has since saluted again. That came after missing by a whisker on debut, and from a lovely trailing gate here with a superior jockey going on, he's comfortably over the odds.
Dangers: Must respect 5. Godzilla from a soft draw with blinkers coming off after an improved run at Randwick second-up off a nine week break. Big watch too on progressive 1. Ashfall, a son of superstar The Autumn Sun, who was close-up at Kembla on debut, and stays at the trip. Both 6. Highborn Harry rises in distance for his second start and can run into the minor money.
How to play it: Ferro Vero each way
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1500m):) |
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Still with the maidens over a touch further, and home tracker 5. Queen Astrid is primed to break through third-up from an ideal trailing draw. Just missed fresh before heading into town and finding the line well through slightly inferior ground. Back on the bigger track over 100m further shapes beautifully.
Dangers: Despite the wide barrier, 1. Afterboomer can strike at his third start up significantly in trip after beating all bar the winner in two provincial runs to start his career. Must keep safe 2. Jack Of Aces who draws to get cover, and also progresses off two provincial runs. Big ratings gap to the rest.
How to play it: Queen Astrid to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 4 PROVINCIAL MAIDEN HCP (1300m):) |
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Provincial only gallopers here. Keen to back progressive 3YO from the same stable as the previous on top selection 8. Harry Tudor second-up over 100m further. By unbeaten UK superstar Frankel who found one better on debut as a short-priced fancy, but returning home to a bigger track where he had previously trialled well is the ticket to win. Naturally bred to get further, and doubt anything will be finishing stronger. Was scratched from Saturday's Newcastle meeting to be saved for this.
Dangers: Scissor Kick three-year-old 1. Community debuts behind two improving trials; while 6. Missile Max; 9. Deelbreaka and 14. Sidenay; all go into trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Harry Tudor to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 MIDWAY CLASS 1 HCP (1300m):) |
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Another one trained on the track, five-year-old 7. Gorshin can make light of his poor winning strike rate resuming off an 11 week break. Was close-up in a string of races against similar opposition through early autumn, and looks nicely weighted here getting a soft run a few lengths off the speed.
Dangers: Progressive metro filly 3. Terra Mater dropped in quality to beat a country maiden field third-up, and should relish the long run home here over 100m further. Tough 6. Donegal Lights has beaten all bar the winner in three from four starts this prep, and draws to get a cosy run just off the speed, but more depth here and would like it a bit wetter. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Gorshin to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 6 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m):) |
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Small field, but tricky affair with plenty of short course quality on show. Like progressive local filly 6. Meod to go back-to-back at home stepping to this grade-up. Showed her liking for this shorter trip when showing speed and defying all the challengers, and prefers it dry.
Dangers: Got plenty of time for home track five-year-old & strong finisher 2. Akaka Falls who beat a similar field three weeks ago, but tougher draw here and up 2kg in weight. Keep safe 1. Capital Reign third-up; while both 3. I Am Brazen resuming and trained on the track; and 5. Laroupe who drew the fence fourth-up; are also capable of running into the money.
How to play it: Meod to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1800m):) |
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Plenty of chances here in a similarly graded race out past the mile. Underrated Rubick four-year-old 6. Gigantic can peak fourth-up getting out to this journey. Liked the way he hit the line in similar company 19 days ago, and again drawn to settle well back and off the fence under the same weight.
Dangers: Smart first-up BM 58 country winner 7. Prefer To Smile looks nicely treated carrying 1.5kg less and is bred to stay by Group 1 Victoria Derby winner Preferment, but wouldn't be diving into too short a quote in a provincial line-up with far more depth to overcome. Big market watch on 3. Akahata who drops significantly in class from a BM 72 metro affair, and draws to get a more economical run. Include 9. Bowery Breeze and 12. Clear Blonde in all exotic bets at bigger odds.
How to play it: Gigantic each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 CLASS 1 HCP (1500m):) |
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Testing middle distance contest to finish. Like progressive filly 13. Two Aye who charged home to thrash a country maiden field third-up, although again will be forced a long way back from the wide draw.
Dangers: Keep safe 3. Decimus off a last start provincial maiden win; while 10. Gold Pattern ran home best to claim a provincial maiden second-up.
How to play it: Two Aye to win
Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R1 3. KISSING SUPIDO
R3 5. QUEEN ASTRID
BEST VALUE:
R5 7. GORSHIN
All the entries, form and replays for Sunday's Hawkesbury meeting