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By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 5 and rail True:

The stayers get us rolling on a surface likely to slip back into soft range, with rain forecast. Progressive five-year-old 1. Fleet Commander gets first use of the inside, and looks ready to win again third-up. Has attacked the line impressively in two runs back, the latest coming from near last at Canterbury to beat all bar the winner. Back to provincial company now over a furlong further, and carrying only 1kg more, all make him the one to beat.

Dangers: Got plenty of time for improving 2. Owen Country who strikes peak fitness fifth-up, and stuck on okay from on speed in that same race as the top selection. Right down in the weights with a claim, 7. Love Rules is in the hunt from a nice trailing draw, despite rising in class. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Fleet Commander to win

Merchant Navy filly 8. Merchant Lady makes her long-awaited debut for the Snowden stable behind two metro trial wins. Starts with key gear additions, and the breeding suggests the more rain arrives, the better placed she is.

Dangers: Well bred 4. Luna Field drifted in the market on debut before settling further back than anticipated and running on only fairly. Draws inside this time, and can improve sharply. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Sleeping Lion on debut as a gelding who has won both lead-up trials.

How to play it: Merchant Lady to win

Plenty of chances here despite a moderate-sized field. Progressive filly 1. La Freccia was very strong from the front despite being challenged before the turn when breaking through at Warwick Farm third-up in only her second prep. Had previously stuck on well in heavy ground, and from a draw where she can comfortably roll forward again, will take plenty of beating.

Dangers: Plenty of them starting with lightly raced 4. Parabellum who swept home to win a provincial mares maiden first-up, and is down 2kg for this. Over the odds is 3. Apollo Mission who has been in and around the money all prep, charging home late to miss narrowly at Kembla 12 days ago, and draws to get plenty of cover. Keep safe 2. Mad Deel third-up who did his best work late here last time, and jumps up significantly in distance.

How to play it: La Freccia to win

Now the older maidens go over a mile, and it shapes well for honest and fit 3. Different Road who can peak finally getting out over this trip. Has been working home well from generally the second half of the field, and gets a soft run here from the inside barrier just off the speed.

Dangers: Emerging metro mare 2. Aquatica is the clear threat, and likely headed for better races. Did her best work late here into a place over the same trip eight days ago, and the quick turnaround is a strong sign she's done well since. Keep safe 6. Himeros having his first run for the new Hawkesbury stable with weight relief off a seven week break; while 8. Oakfield Zena is the best of the rest deep into her prep, with blinkers coming off.

How to play it: Different Road to win

A distance drop of 100m from tougher metro company, and in likely soft ground, are all keys to provincial mare 4. Everyone's A Star landing her second win in three starts. Finished best from midfield to claim a CL1 at Wyong just before Xmas, then tackled Midway BM 72 grade at Randwick when not having the best of runs from a tricky draw. Much better off back in this line-up, and draws to get a cosy run just off the speed.

Dangers: Keep watch on 6. Orthie's Girls who can improve sharply third-up from a soft draw; while both 5. River Frost who progresses off a third-up CL1 win; and 9. Spirit Of Varanasi second-up with weight relief; are capable of running into the money.

How to play it: Everyone's A Star to win

Improving mare 8. Ausbred Mimosa is well paced here third-up coming back from a metro maiden. Hit the line well at Warwick Farm two starts back before running home only fairly at Canterbury, although it was tough to make up a lot of ground that day. The extra 100m and a lower draw should allow her to settle a bit closer, and while untried on rain-affected ground, she's bred to handle it.

Dangers: Honest 10. Layin' Four can run a race fourth-up; so too 3. Helinda who draws off the track, but comes through a handy provincial race, and a much more senior and stronger jockey takes over. Include 1. Maximum Ride at his third start on an eight day back-up in exotics bets.

How to play it: Ausbred Mimosa to win

Any number of chances in this sprint, especially if there's a soft track pattern in play well into the card. Leaning that way with tough four-year-old 4. Sir Artie who has been up for a while, but in and around the money, including a dominant CL1 provincial win two starts ago when surging home from midfield. Has been freshened up since doing it tough from the gate under 60.5kg on Boxing Day, and can bounce straight back here with some weight relief and coming back 150m in distance.

Dangers: From an ideally trailing draw, 12. Pennypacker is an immediate threat fourth-up. Worked home okay last start in a similar graded field despite coming through a slower part of the track, and the gear change is a show of confidence. Deep into the prep 11. Grand Crusader is an each way chance drawn low off a six week break, and back from deeper metro opposition; while 2. Oakfield Mahogany can run into the money fourth-up, and also down from deeper city opposition.

How to play it: Sir Artie to win

The girls' edition to close the card is just as open, although stacks up well for tough metro mare 2. Flying Shelly second-up off a lengthy break. Got through the line well from just off the speed when resuming at Wyong, and she nearly always improves at this point of the campaign. Has a liking for soft tracks, and is drawn to get to the outside.

Dangers: Plenty of them starting with 4. Missouk who disappointed here second-up, but already has plenty of experience around this course, and comfortable on soft ground. Watch the betting on resuming country filly 10. Leggy Point who draws wide, but has trialled well and normally fires early in the prep. Include 5. Tidal Impact third-up; 7. Our Lady Stardust peaking fourth-up; and emerging filly 8. Disney Castle who comes through a deeper city race and preferred here to the Kensington meeting on Wednesday; in all trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Flying Shelly to win

BEST BETS:
R2 8. MERCHANT LADY
R5 4. EVERYONE'S A STAR

BEST VALUE:
R8 2. FLYING SHELLY

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Gosford meeting