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By Mark Brassel

Hawkesbury is rated a Soft 6 with the rail in the TRUE position. Tuesday's forecast is the possibility of rain with a top of 24 degrees.

Going with the half-brother to mighty grey Chautauqua, 2. I SAY BOOM ($6.50 on TAB). In the strong Snowden camp and had a sprinkling of support when resuming at Gosford, hitting the line hard for a close-up fourth. Will improve with that run under his belt and should relish the additional 100m here.

Dangers: 1. PEACE OFFICER ($2.70) has undergone arthroscopic surgery on both front fetlocks since his last race start in August but trialled impressively at Warwick Farm for his return with an easy win. Looks the logical danger although 6. RUSSIAN ROSE ($7) did well on debut when runner-up at Kembla Grange after being trapped wide in the small field. 5. MOONFLOWER ($2 favourite) was narrowly edged out at Wyong and continues to improve.

How to play it: I Say Boom for the win
Odds and Evens: Split

Topweight 1. HIGH PLATEAU ($2.10 fav) is the one to beat after finishing powerfully to score on debut at Kembla Grange. He sat back last until straightening then unwound a big burst to score. With the field now reduced to just five runners, there's no place to hide and it's likely he will run over the top of them late to maintain his unbeaten record.

Dangers: Lightly raced filly 3. JUKEBOX FLYER ($6) won on a Soft surface at Newcastle on debut and just ran out of steam first-up at Orange in her first run since September and will be fitter here. 4. SCREAM ($5.50) won well at Nowra but then pulled hard and was trapped wide at Canberra and the run can best be overlooked. 7. THINKING RAIN ($3.10) hasn't raced since December and trialled nicely. She did run in the Group 2-Wakeful Stakes last campaign so certainly has ability.

How to play it: High Plateau for the win
Odds and Evens: Odds

2. BARMERA ($1.35 fav) has been runner-up three times from his past four starts and is head and shoulders above this lot. Grabbed near the post at this course two runs back with the winner Sequestered scoring again. Last start was again nabbed in the shadows of the post and has beaten a couple of his rivals here pointlessly – is now extremely short in the market following scratchings.

Dangers: 1. ABUSE OF POWER ($10) has raced twice and done little but resuming from a spell here. Sat wide yet stuck to his guns when placed in a recent trial and could be the surprise packet in a race with few chances. 5. SAVVY SMART ($6) was placed here in December and ran home OK when fourth here last time, but finished four lengths behind the favourite and hard to see him turning the tables.

How to play it: Barmera to win clearly but too short now
Odds and Evens: Split

Locally trained 7. I’M A SHAKER ($7) was nosed out at Port Macquarie but made amends with an authoritative win at that course last time. He sat outside the leader then put pay to them quickly scoring with ease from Fine Example who went on to win at Taree at her next start. Will be on the pace and sure to take running down.

Dangers: Favourite 2. CLEAR CHOICE ($2 fav) finished fourth at Warwick Farm on debut then led and kicked away to win convincingly at Newcastle. Smart but prepared to take the better value with the top pick who gets a 2.5kg weight advantage on the favourite. Scratched from Canberra (Monday) for this. 1. BY NINE ($11) won at Hawkesbury last May and has had a let-up since a couple of ordinary efforts. Not let go when last in a trial so keep a watch on the betting. 6. GORSHIN ($7.50) is an honest fellow but has won one race from 23 starts.

How to play it: I’m A Shaker each-way
Odds and Evens: Split

Kembla-trained 2. CANDLELIT ($4.60) was a drifter on debut around his home course and tired late. The gelding sat outside the leader and keep whacking away down the straight to gain the minor placing. Sure to be more tuned up for this and makes each-way appeal with an in-form Brock Ryan (four winners at Kembla last Friday) aboard.

Dangers: 3. JEDIBEEL ($2.80 fav) is making his debut but has trialled on four occasions and is from the strong Brad Widdup stable. Won a Hawkesbury trial then Brett Prebble seemed to have a lapful of horse when fourth in a Randwick trial. Sure to perform well first-up. 6. SEPARATIST ($4.80) gave a good sight at Kembla (1400m) and only tired late so coming back to the 1100m looks an advantage. 10. SIR TOM ($7) has been placed four times in eight appearances and last start ran home gamely when runner-up at Port Macquarie and can figure in the finish.

How to play it: Candlelit each-way
Odds and Evens: Split

Going with 11. MOUNTAIN GUEST ($6.50) who should have plenty of upside after two runs from a spell. The filly was shunted back to last on the home bend and had to switch across heels when a closing third (beaten less than a length) at Gosford with 3. SILVINCIBLE ($7.50) running second. Meets that horse 4.5kg better and the additional 200m looks tailor made.

Dangers: 9. GORGEOUS ZARA ($1.50 fav) hit the line strongly when placed at Kembla on debut before flashing home when runner-up at Warwick Farm. Takes a while to wind up so she will relish the step up to 1800m and has an undeniable chance, but now looks at very skinny odds. Grey galloper 3. SILVINCIBLE has been runner-up at his past two outings and is rock-hard fit so he can't be underestimated. 13. SHOWSUMGRIT ($9.50) held on OK at Warwick Farm last time and should be nearing her peak.

How to play it: Mountain Guest each-way
Odds and Evens: Odds

Banking on a race-to-race double for the John Sargent stable. 3. CASUAL CONNECTION ($5) belted down the outside to score impressively at Newcastle then beaten less than three lengths in a handy Midway at Randwick. The step up from 1600m to 2000m should suit and he’ll be rattling home late with Keagan Latham the pilot.

Dangers: 5. ZAMBRERO ($9.50) finished well when runner-up at Newcastle then found the right lane and zoomed over the top of his rivals there to win pulling away last start. Going great guns and looms as a definite danger here. 8. WHETU ($4.60) is another that found the right spot down the straight when an easy winner at Canberra then doing his best work late at Kembla. Keep safe. The favourite 7. FIELD MARSHAL ($3.70 fav) won his first two starts before changing stables and his two runs back have been sound so must be kept in the mix.

How to play it: Stand-out quinella – 3/5-8-7
Odds and Evens: Odds

A number of scratchings has changed the complexion of the race. Topweight 1. ANYTHINK GOES ($5.50) showed enough last year to compete in the Qld Derby. Has had one run back and it was an eye-catcher. Was certainly allowed to find his feet when resuming at Gosford, being three lengths from the second last horse approaching the bend. Cramped for room down the stretch and went to the line untested when beaten just 1.7 lens. Well drawn and appeals as value here.

Dangers: 9. TRANSPLANT ($7.50) has been supported (in from $15) and after winning easily at Dubbo, held on gamely when runner-up to a horse that has won his last two. 2. THE EMPIRE ($3.50 fav) was having his first start for a new stable and battled on solidly along the fence when just out of the placegetters at a Canterbury Park night meeting and has won twice on a Soft surface. 5. BLACK DUKE ($5) is racing well and had to be steadied a couple of times at Warwick Farm when he ran onto heels and looks suited here. Should run boldly.

How to play it: Box a quinella 1-9-2-5
Odds and Evens: Odds

BEST BETS
R2 – 1. HIGH PLATEAU ($2.10 fav), R7 – 3. CASUAL CONNECTION ($5)

BEST VALUE
R6 – 11. MOUNTAIN GUEST ($6.50), R9 – 1. ANYTHINK GOES ($5.50)

View the final fields with full form & race replays for Hawkesbury here