By Nick Berney
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday's Kembla Grange meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 1:15PM 4 PINES BREWING COMPANY MAIDEN HANDICAP (1600 METRES) |
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2. Eau De Vie has raced consistently all prep in strong time/sectional merit races and gets her chance to break through for her maiden win here. The three-year-old got too far back last start at Warwick Farm but ran on well, clocking one of the fastest final 400m splits of the entire meeting. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and the margins throughout confirm the quality. She brings the clear best last start figure and expect her to be savaging the line.
Dangers: 11. We Don't Roam was slow away last start at Mudgee and had too much to do. She can settle closer and will appreciate the rise in trip. 1. Burnt By Bernie is 44 days between runs but has trialled well in between runs. He will roll forward and will give a sight. 3. Mindspace raced in the inferior ground last start and is ready to peak third-up.
How to play it: Eau De Vie WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Eau De Vie last start at Warwick Farm on February 22
Race 2 - 1:50PM BALTER PROVINCIAL MAIDEN PLATE (1400 METRES) |
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14. Zarni is well placed here and finds a winnable race at her home track. The filly was run to suit on debut but ran on well in a high-rating race. Further, she was brave in defeat last start after racing in the inferior ground at this track/distance and was only narrowly beaten. She brings a dominant ratings profile and is set to peak third-up. Expect a bold showing.
Dangers: 13. Vancouvers Gem resumes and trialled well recently at Hawkesbury. She raced well fresh last prep and can be within striking distance with the perfect draw here. 3. Vegas Outlaw is rock-hard fit and receives a senior rider in Tim Clark for the first time this prep. 2. Riley Park should've won last start and 12. The Mooch is a knockout chance.
How to play it: Zarni WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Zarni runs second at Kembla Grange on February 23
Race 3 - 2:25PM CARLTON DRAUGHT MAIDEN PLATE (1200 METRES) |
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1. Givara is a nice type and returned a career peak first-up at Warwick Farm 16 days ago. The four-year-old drifted back from a tricky draw but ran on hard, clocking one of the meeting's fastest final 400m splits. He finally strikes a dry track, brings the best last start figure and with the anticipated genuine tempo engaged, expect him to be savaging the line.
Dangers: Forgive 13. I Am Jade's first-up run where she didn't handle the rain-affected ground. She can bounce back and maps well. 7. Joyrider resumes and has trialled well enough in preparation for this assignment. He is a proven first-up performer and can rate to win. Add 2. Noble Attack to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Givara WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Givara runs third at Warwick Farm on February 22
R4 - 3:05PM PFD FOOD SERVICES A J 'BERT' LILLYE MEMORIAL HCP BM94 HCP (1200 M) |
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Leaning towards 2. Flying Crazy who returned well first-up at Rosehill and produced one of his career peak figures. Moreover, the gelding raced in the inferior ground throughout transit, hit the line well and ran solid closing splits. He must carry a hefty weight, but he brings a slight fitness edge over some of his key rivals, and the rise in distance is ideal.
Dangers: 5. Bacchanalia resumes and won a recent trial in style at Hawkesbury. The Godolphin galloper brings strong form lines/figures to this event. He maps to have all favours, and expect him to be right in the finish. 4. The Face is wound up for this after winning two trials and will take some catching. 7. Ita can sprint fresh.
How to play it: Flying Crazy WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Flying Crazy last start at Rosehill on February 18
Race 5 - 3:40PM ASSETT PROFESSIONAL SERVICES STAYERS CUP BM68 HCP (2400 M) |
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9. Auspicious Cloud profiles well for this with a strong platform and is ready to peak fourth-up. The four-year-old was well backed $4.5-$3.5 late in the trade last start at Canterbury and ran on well into second, beating the rest easily. She gets key factors in her favour with a positive map; the bigger track suits and all key indicators suggest she will improve over more ground.
Dangers: 12. Lord Desanimaux got too far back in a farcical tempo last start at this track and had to make a long-wide sustained run. Further, he ran on hard and made significant ground. 1. Essential Sky has multiple winning figures and gets in well at the weights after the astute claim for apprentice Jasper Franklin. Forgive 4. Mikasa's last start, and she can bounce back on a dry track. Add 11. Ausbred Bluebird to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Auspicious Cloud WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Auspicious Cloud runs second at Canterbury on February 24
Race 6 - 4:20PM TAB MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1600 METRES) |
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Forgive 4. Savvy Legend's last start where nothing went right, and he started a well-fancied $3 favourite. Prior to that, he has been solid in stronger races and brings multiple winning figures to this event. The gelding receives a significant barrier change allowing him to settle closer in the run and the dry surface suits. It's worth noting the Trainer/Jockey partnership between Les Bridge/Brock Ryan is striking at 22.6% with a 57.4% profit on turnover. Each-way.
Dangers: 1. Pure Hydrogen won dominantly last start at Canberra over this distance, and he sprinted one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. He is still relatively lightly raced and can go on with it now. 5. Sizzler had all favours when breaking through for his maiden win and market watch on 2. Spats Pav Bowie, who has a positive map.
How to play it: Savvy Legend E/W ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Savvy Legend last start at Newcastle on February 11
Race 7 - 4:55PM PERONI KEMBLA GRANGE CLASSIC (1600 METRES) |
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7. Call Di wasn't suited last start after getting too far back in a moderate tempo. However, to her credit, she flew home and ran strong closing splits relative to the day. She is on an upwards ratings spiral, has a strong platform and an SP edge over key rivals. Expect a bold showing.
Dangers: 6. Pavitra was solid first-up in a proven form reference, and she will relish the step out to 1600m. NZ filly Polygon showed a sharp turn of foot to score last start and has since trialled well. 3 Pierossa is a knockout hope.
How to play it: Call Di WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Call Di first-up at Kensington on February 3
Race 8 - 5:30PM CANADIAN CLUB BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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8. Bindi's Choice is on an upwards ratings spiral, and she bolted in at this track 15 days ago. The three-year-old had every chance, but she put her rivals away easily, posted one of the fastest final 400m splits of the meeting and went through the line full of energy. Moreover, all key indicators suggest the rise in trip will be ideal, and she can make the step-in grade.
Dangers: 4. So Sneeky is 43 days between runs, but he had no luck last start in a proven form reference that has since produced three subsequent winners. He drops in grade and is a key late market watch. 7. Toesonthenose is an intriguing runner who has had a long-time off but has trialled up well. He has the ability and is a major player. 1. Standing Order was wide first-up and can improve here.
How to play it: Bindi's Choice WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Bindi's Choice wins last start at Kembla on February 23
Best Bet: Race 3 # 1 – Givara
Next Best: Race 1 # 2 – Eau De Vie
Best Value: Race 4 # 2 - Flying Crazy
All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Kembla Grange meeting