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By Ray Hickson

There’s an air of confidence from co-trainer Mitchell Kearney that consistent gelding Carlisle Bay has found the right race at Newcastle on Wednesday to improve on his winning record.

But there’s just one variable he can’t control, and that’s how the four-year-old leaves the gates, which will be vital to his chances in the TAB Long May We Play Handicap (1500m).

“I think if he jumps he should win,’’ Kearney said.

“He’s had a few issues jumping, sometimes he’ll jump perfectly and sometimes he’ll fall out.”

Carlisle Bay, $5.50 with TAB on Tuesday, has won two of his 14 starts and broke through with an all the way second-up win over 1300m at Scone on December 21 where he jumped with them then did some work to find the lead.

Carlisle Bay wins at Scone on December 21

He wasn’t quite so dynamic out last start at Kensington on New Year’s Day, settling midfield, but Kearney was satisfied with his effort beaten under three lengths by For Valour in a race he says was effectively throwing the horse in the deep end in a 1550m Benchmark 78.

“We just wanted to see where he was at,’’ he said.

“I thought the tempo wasn’t the best for him, they didn’t go as hard as they could have and made it a sit and sprint for him to the line.

“He’s a high cruising speed horse and keeps going that same speed at the end.”

Some rain forecast for Wednesday doesn’t faze Kearney, Carlisle Bay has five placings from eight starts on soft and heavy tracks including his first-up half-length third on a heavy 10 at Wyong.

The four-year-old rises 8kg for the class drop to a provincial Benchmark 64 but Kearney said Josh Parr’s booking is a plus given his prowess with on pace horses.

“He rates them pretty well. Our plan for Josh would be to lead or sit up outside the lead,’’ he said.

Of the others in Mitchell and Desiree Kearney’s Hawkesbury team, in-form front-running sprinter Heza Gentleman is enjoying a break after a hat-trick of Canterbury wins in November and December.

Last start Newcastle maiden winner Lady Shenanigans heads to Kembla on Saturday and Kearney feels eight-year-old Spin Bowles is close to a win after three runs back and is looking for some rain ahead of Canterbury on Friday night.

All the fields, form and replays for Wednesday's Newcastle meeting