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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday’s Hawkesbury meeting. Selections based on a soft track with possible showers forecast. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Import 2. Funambulist resumed as a gelding this preparation and hit the line hard in a high rating race at Goulburn on his Australian debut. The four-year-old then had excuses when running second at Kembla 12 days ago, where he wasn’t suited in a farcical tempo. Further, he was outpaced when the tempo quickened, then was checked/blocked at a critical stage and lost momentum, but once he balanced back up, he savaged the line. The Annabel Neasham trained galloper gives every indication he is ready to peak third-up over a further distance, and a repeat of either of his last two figures will make him hard to hold out.

Dangers: 5. Stormy Legend was wide and had to work early, albeit leading at a very slow pace when racing at Canterbury 15 days ago. The four-year-old gelding has a strong starting price profile and drops from the metropolitan company. 7. Aunt Bridge led at a very fast tempo last start at Nowra 9 days ago and tried hard to the line. She is rock-hard fit and will map to control the pace. 6. John Of Lancaster is fit and brings a different form-line.

How to play it: Funambulist WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Funambulist runs second at Kembla on April 23

Lightly raced improver 3. Thousand Years was 46 days between runs last start at Kembla and ran on well in a high-pressure race. The three-year-old ran second to Samarkand, who has since placed in stronger grade at the metropolitan level. The Peter & Paul Snowden galloper will undoubtedly improve from that run, maps to get all favours and the drier ground suits. In addition, Sam Clipperton has a strong association with the filly for one win and two placings when riding.

Dangers: 2. Tavi Lamour resumed at Warwick Farm 17 days ago and tried hard in defeat with a big gap to third. The three-year-old filly produces all her career peak figures on rain-affected ground that align with her opposition and James McDonald sticks. 6. Aurora Florentina is rock-hard fit and 4. Myeyesadoreyou was a big winner last start, but some query back to a wet track.

How to play it: Thousand Years WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Thousand Years runs second at Kembla on April 16

7. Nyota was brave in defeat and tried hard all the way to the line when running second at Canberra 13 days ago in a high rating race. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. Further, there were decisive margins throughout to confirm the quality of the race. The three-year-old filly indicates that she is ready to peak third-up over further distance and represents value.

Dangers: Trainer Chris Waller has a strong hand here with multiple chances and three-year-old 4. Vaneto is ready to win. The gelding was heavily backed last start late in betting $4.5-$3.8 at Canterbury 15 days ago and just got too far back in a very slow pace. He is coming out of time/sectional merit races all preparation, and James McDonald rides for the first time. Forgive 1. By Nine’s last start, where the race was run in torrential rain, and he battled away in the extremely testing conditions. The freshen-up suits and expect him to be hitting the line hard. 6. Isla maps to control the pace and market watch 2. Mojo Classic who has past ratings that can win this.

How to play it: Nyota E/W ($11 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Nyota runs second at Canberra on April 22

1. Avvertimento led at an even pace first-up at Wagga 11 days ago and battled on well to run third in a high rating race. The three-year-old gelding improved significantly between runs last preparation on figures and maps to get complete control with the blinkers coming off. In addition, he receives a metropolitan grade jockey for the first time and will give a sight.

Dangers: 6. Queenmaker resumes at her home track and recently had a quiet trial at Rosehill. She chased a strong tempo before spelling and stuck on ok against some city class gallopers. The three-year-old filly has a tricky draw but is a key late market watch. 4. Promise The Moon has raced well in her debut campaign, and a repeat of either of her last two efforts will put her in the finish. 9. Bondadosa is the knockout.

How to play it: Avvertimento WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Avvertimento runs third at Wagga on April 24

Open maiden. Leaning towards 2. Foolish who resumes without an official trial but raced well in proven form races last preparation that had time/sectional merit. Further, he was well fancied in the market in his first three runs. The three-year-old gelding is a consistent type, proven on rain-affected ground, has multiple winning ratings, and will roll forward from the soft draw.

Dangers: 5. Oryx resumes as a gelding and has trialled well in a fast time heat relative to the morning. The three-year-old ran the second-fastest 400m-200m split of the entire meeting in 11.28 on debut at Echuca, and a repeat of that effort can put him in the finish. Add 10. Firstluv and 11. Lushfields to all exotics.

How to play it: Foolish WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Foolish first-up last preparation at Newcastle on October 25

2. Assiduity is a nice type and on an upwards ratings spiral. The three-year-old gelding resumed this preparation at this track/distance and was an impressive winner starting a well-fancied $1.40 favourite. Further, he ran the fastest final 200m split of the entire meeting in 11.55 and went through the line full of energy. He then was brave in defeat in a strong time race at Warwick Farm 17 days ago, and there were decisive margins to confirm the quality. Expect an aggressive ride from Sam Clipperton, and a repeat of either of his last two figures will make him hard to beat.

Dangers: 7. Moon Reader resumes and has trialled well enough on the Randwick Polytrack in preparation for this assignment. The three-year-old filly draws well, is trained at the track and looms as the main danger. 5. Bullinachinashop resumes and has trialled well at Muswellbrook. 4. All Girls hit the line well to win at Kembla 19 days ago and is fit.

How to play it: Assiduity WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Assiduity runs third at Warwick Farm on April 18

3. Toesonthenose was given no peace early last start at Kensington 10 days ago and proceeded to overrace in a very slow pace and battled on to finish third. He was a dominant winner at this track and won in style when resuming before that start. Further, he ran one of the fastest final 200m splits across the entire meeting in 11.46 and went through the line full of energy. The three-year-old gelding who can bounce back has a strong starting price profile and can build into a rhythm with an anticipated genuine tempo.

Dangers: 2. Norman raced greenly last start at Kembla 19 days ago and hit the line well. The four-year-old gelding is a progressive type and will be suited up in distance. 8. Marakopa hasn’t won in a long-time but has ratings that align well with his opposition and is down in grade. 5. Real Peace had no luck last start at Canberra and must go in all exotics.

How to play it: Toesonthenose WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Toesonthenose runs third at Kensington on April 25

2. Brillar was honest second-up at Wyong 21 days ago, running third in a strong time race. Prior to that start, he resumed at this track, and although having all favours throughout transit, he sprinted the second-fastest final 200m sectional of the entire meeting in 11.32. The three-year-old is relatively lightly raced and improves throughout a preparation. Further, the blinkers go on for the first time, and his profile indicates that he is ready to peak third-up.

Dangers: 9. Straya Pride resumed at Nowra 18 days ago and hit the line hard at an unsuitable distance to finish second. He raced consistently last preparation, the bigger track suits, and he may have the last shot. 6. Beenvane and 3. Vyner can sprint fresh. Some query 1. Camaguey who is second-up off a long break but does receive some key gear changes.

How to play it: Brillar WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Brillar runs third at Wyong on April 14

Best Bet: Race 6 # 2 – Assiduity

Next Best: Race 1 # 2 – Funambulist

Best Value: Race 3 # 7 – Nyota

Quaddie:

Leg 1: 2,5,10,11
Leg 2: 2,7
Leg 3: 3,2,8,5
Leg 4: 2,9,6,3

Combinations = 128

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday’s Hawkesbury meeting