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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1 million Winx Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Expecting a track in the soft range.

1. Think It Over (Kerry Parker): It’s a big ask for any horse to come back from over a year off the scene and win at the highest level first-up but you wouldn’t put it past this fellow to run a big race. When he last contested the Winx he was beaten half a length and romped in with the Apollo (the autumn equivalent) at the start of his last prep on the way to his Queen Elizabeth win. Everything he’s done in his trials says he’s in good order and will run a cheeky race.

2. Zaaki (Annabel Neasham): Time hasn’t caught up with Zaaki just yet and he brings ominous stats fresh and at the Randwick 1400m into this race. His only defeat over the Winx course was to Giga Kick in the All Aged earlier in the year, also first-up. Just the one trial leading in where he sat outside the lead and was run down by Shinzo. We know what to expect from him, he’ll be prominent from a handy draw and will likely strike the front at some point in the straight. From there it’s up to something to defy him.

Zaaki (Pic: Steve Hart)

3. Mo’unga (Annabel Neasham): Won this race two years ago and that was his last victory but in the interim he’s run some cracking races and bumped into some stars like Anamoe and Dubai Honour. Trialling well enough and has an excellent record at the trip. Tactics will be interesting with him, he’s shown he’s able to be effective going forward or back and from one of the wider alleys here connections are faced with a choice. Each-way chance.

4. Arapaho (SCRATCHED).

5. Francesco Guardi (Chris Waller): Another stayer resuming and he’s coming off a 10 month break and is coming off surgery on his fetlock following his last start. He actually doesn’t have bad stats at the shorter trips but that’s from a while ago so not reading too much into it. His two recent trials have been fine for the type of horse he is and expect he’ll be a factor over more ground.

6. Communist (Michael Freedman): Randwick Guineas winner kicking off at 1400m for the first time and that might be significant. He has tactical speed to offset a slightly wide alley and put himself near the speed and is more suited to the trip than many of his rivals. His trials haven’t been eye-catching but he’s followed around Alligator Blood in both of them and that horse looks to be humming at the moment. Seems over the odds and wouldn’t surprise if he’s somewhere in the finish.

7. Golden Mile (James Cummings): This shapes as an interesting race for the Godolphin entire who had significant excuses for his 59 length beaten margin first-up in the Missile. He was right behind Big Parade when that horse was injured and Golden Mile basically took no part from that point. He was travelling very nicely at the time and you could argue he’d have been right in the finish. It says he’s likely come back well and if that’s the case he’s worth considering.

8. Osipenko (Chris Waller): A little tricky to work out where he’ll end up in the run given his gate, the assumption would be second half of the field, but he showed in the autumn he’s a horse with a big win in him one day. Kicked off at 1200m last prep then won second-up at 1400m in the Hobartville before his Randwick Guineas hopes ended with a temperature on race morning. Quiet trial, he’s a big market watch.

9. Lindermann (Chris Waller): The wide gate isn’t as significant for the Rosehill Guineas winner whose pattern is to roll forward and you’d think that’s the plan here. There isn’t high speed in the race so it might be that he gets across into a handy enough spot to get his chance. Led the Doncaster from gate 16 but weakened out of it. His trials have been excellent, particularly the latest one, and if he’d drawn a single figure he’d surely be shorter in the market.

10. Major Beel (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Rocketed through the grades in the autumn from a Class 1 win (over Hawaii Five Oh no less) to a gutsy success in the Australian Derby. Given his on pace pattern he’s shown up in his trials so he will probably look to be somewhere near the speed. He did start $31 in the Derby so it’s up to him to make the step up to open age. Like to see what he produces here.

11. Duais (Edward Cummings): Looks back on track after she missed the bulk of the autumn before resurfacing in Brisbane with two solid efforts over ground. Generally over the short trip she’ll be a bit outpaced but can’t judge her on her last spring campaign where she didn’t quiet race to her best. Will find it too sharp but plenty of interest in how she hits the line.

12. Montefilia (Chris Waller): We know this class mare pretty well and first-up she’s going to find 1400m not far enough for her to get warm. She’s commenced her past four preparations at a mile and she hasn’t raced at this trip since the Surround Stakes in 2021 when she was a three-year-old. Her second trial was quite nice and she rarely puts in a bad one so expect her to be running on handily late.

13. Fangirl (Chris Waller): Every bit of improvement the track makes up to race day will be in her favour as she’s most effective on ground closer to good than heavy. Outstanding mare who chased Anamoe home in this race last year and was third behind him in the Apollo in the autumn before chasing him home in the Chipping Norton and George Ryder. Considering her heavy track stats she ran very well in the Doncaster and with even luck in running she should be taking part in the finish.

Fangirl (Pic: Steve Hart)

14. Going Global (Chris Waller): Not expecting to see her line up given she had an exhibition gallop between races at Canterbury on Wednesday and she sweated up quite noticeably there. Only Australian exposure came in the Doncaster and she likely didn’t love the heavy ground. While her American record is impressive she’s not in Kansas anymore and happy to watch her go around for now.

15. Princess Grace (Chris Waller): This American mare has adjusted quite well on the evidence of her two local runs, in lesser company, back in April against the mares. Wasn’t out to do anything in her second trial after performing well when second to Lindermann in her first so happy to say she’s come back well. Saw a soft Randwick in the Sapphire Stakes and ran well, gate one gives her a chance to see if she measures up.

16. Hinged (Chris Waller): Split Anamoe and Fangirl in the Apollo first-up last prep which is a credential that says she shouldn’t be overlooked. Didn’t really run up to it after that though there was merit in her last start before a break where she found herself back last before running into fourth in the Queen Of The Turf. She’s a natural on pacer drawn to be prominent and that gives her a chance to cause some trouble.

17. King Colorado (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Where does he line up? Only had the three starts and went from a Kembla maiden win to taking out the Group 1 JJ Atkins in the space of a couple of weeks. Lone three-year-old and you’d have to say his trials have been promising. The market is keeping him safe but he is taking on some serious horses with a lot more exposure, so if he’s good enough to win this he could be anything.

18E. Navajo Peak (David Payne): Made his way to stakes company over a middle distance at the end of last preparation. If he makes the field here he’ll find Group 1 weight-for-age a bit beyond him at the short trip. Nice trial behind King Colorado but wait for him over further under handicap conditions.

19E. Attrition (Mitchell Freedman): Lightly raced Victorian who was in BM64 company in January before starting $7 and running second in the Australian Guineas in March. Obviously has some ability and drawn well but happy to let him go around at this level.

SPEED MAP: There are a few natural on pacers but not high speed. Zaaki won’t be far away, Hinged has drawn to be right there, Major Beel even at 1400m should roll forward. Think It Over is capable of landing in the first half dozen too. From wider out Communist, Mo’unga and Lindermann can make bids to get across. Imagine Golden Mile settles just behind the pace as he did in the Missile.

SELECTIONS:
9 LINDERMANN
2 Zaaki
13 Fangirl
6 Communist

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting