By Nick Berney
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday's Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a soft to good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 12:50PM BOWERMANS PLATE (1100 METRES) |
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2. Coincide, who returns as a gelding, has had two solid hit-outs at the trials, and he profiles well for this assignment. He has produced both of his peak figures when resuming and brings superior form lines to most of his rivals. Further, he was honest first-up last prep after leading at a genuine tempo and battled on well to hold third behind subsequent Group 1 placegetter Don Corleone. The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott galloper has a race experience edge and will take some catching.
Dangers: Debutant 6. Hanau is a nice type and has trialled well. The Godolphin galloper has gone through the line full of energy in both of his heats, and he wasn't extended in his latest trial. He must contend with a tricky draw but expect him to be savaging the line. Another first starter 11. Undivided has trialled well and won a recent heat at Canterbury in slick time relative to the morning. He has natural pace and will have a tactical map advantage over some of his opponents. Forgiving of 1. Bojangles debut run where he had no luck and arguably should've won. Add 4. Encap to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Coincide WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Coincide runs third in a trial at Rosehill on July 4
Race 2 - 1:25PM FURPHY PLATE (1100 METRES) |
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Leaning towards 3. French Endeavour who resumes and represents value. The filly has trialled well enough, and her debut run last prep had merit. The Matthew Smith trained galloper was blocked for a run at a critical stage, then checked, becoming unbalanced and wanting to get on the wrong leg. Moreover, she picked up well to her credit and found the line solidly to run second behind Bases Loaded. She races at her home track, and with an anticipated genuine tempo, expect her to be running on strongly.
Dangers: Forget 14. Stefi Magnetica's first-up run at Hawkesbury, where the filly reared at the start and then set herself an impossible task. She has since trialled well and maps to have all favours. 5. Love And Light was heavily backed late in the trade on debut at Wyong and tried hard into second in a high-rating race with decisive margins to confirm the quality. Add 13. Sky Artist to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: French Endeavour WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
French Endeavour runs third in a trial at Rosehill on July 4
Race 3 - 2:00PM TAB HANDICAP (2130 METRES) |
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6. Jamrock started favourite last start at Hawkesbury, and he tried hard in defeat when running second. The three-year-old travelled well throughout but was forced into the inferior ground at the top of the straight, but to his credit, he kept trying to the line. Prior to that start, he broke through for his maiden win in style, and his effort was full of merit. The gelding had to make a long-wide sustained run, hit the line hard and recorded one of the meeting's fastest final 200m splits. He is now suited to stepping up in distance, maps to have all favours and is proven on the rain-affected ground. Additionally, his ratings/sectional profile supports he can fight out the finish. Each-way.
Dangers: 10. Venetian Blue brings superior form lines and has multiple winning figures. The filly chased a fast tempo last start at Randwick and battled on well behind improving galloper Aristonous. She has had a tick-over trial between runs and Tim Clark rides. 7. Okatina and 5. Socrates are honest on-pace types and will be hard to catch. 9. Sugoi Legend is on a 10-day backup, proven at this distance range. Add 2. Tudor Prince, whose peak figure came at this track last prep.
How to play it: Jamrock E/W ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Jamrock runs second last start at Hawkesbury on June 29
Race 4 - 2:35PM HEADWATER @ VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1000 METRES) |
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Forging of 10. Pinnace's last start in a high-rating race behind subsequent winner Omni Man. The filly travelled well but was blocked for a run for most of the straight, and she had no luck. She maps to have all favours and gets in well at the weights after the astute claim for apprentice Zac Lloyd.
Dangers: 9. Bubba's Bay and 6. Secret Revolution both drop back from Saturday metropolitan grade and have raced well this prep. Expecting improvement from 11. Boss who will be fitter and maps well.
How to play it: Pinnace WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Pinnace last start at Kensington on July 5
Race 5 - 3:10PM ROBRICK LODGE HANDICAP (1600 METRES) |
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5. Thousand Years, who profiles well for this assignment, has come in on a strong figure, and she can bounce off her first-up effort. The Peter & Paul Snowden gallopers run had hidden merit at Rosehill in a stronger grade last start after she had to sprint through the inferior ground, and she kept trying to the line. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and the market has since respected this form reference. The mare will be suited to the anticipated genuine tempo and has a solid second-up record; Sam Clipperton rides, who has a great affiliation with her, and any improvement on her first-up figure will make her hard to beat. Good each-way.
Dangers: 4. Good Omens is an honest on pace type and rock-hard fit. Market watch on 9. Outsider who drops in grade, and 3. Lovetheinvasion has a favourable map.
How to play it: Thousand Years E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Thousand Years last start at Randwick on June 24
Race 6 - 3:45PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1600 METRES) |
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6. Ruby Flyer has gone to a new level this prep and is on an upwards ratings spiral, excluding a forgive run two starts ago. The gelding bolted in last start at Newcastle by a dominant 3.5 lengths, and he built through his gears well to score in style. He follows his usual race pattern, having a break between runs and has a favourable map. Further, repeating his last start figure will make him hard to beat.
Dangers: Forgiving of 10. Just A Brother's last start effort. He is a knockout chance, and his run had sectional merit two outings ago. 9. The Replicant is an honest type. Market watch on 2. The Milkybar Kid and 11. Alfano who raced well to win last start.
How to play it: Ruby Flyer WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Ruby Flyer wins last start at Newcastle on June 24
Race 7 - 4:20PM RACING FOR GOOD ON JULY 29 HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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Keen on 1. I Am Lethal to bounce back after a forgive run last start where nothing went right, and he wasn't suited to the race shape. Prior to that start, his run was full of merit behind Iowna Merc and Kibou in a high-rating race, with him recording some of the fastest closing splits of the meeting. The gelding has since returned to the trials at this track and won in style with the blinkers/tongue tie applied. Further, when the blinkers went back on last campaign, he produced two peak figures that would win this upcoming race. The John O'Shea galloper has a strong platform and is ready to peak third-up with a much more favourable race setup. In addition, although he hasn't won in a long-time, he drops significantly in grade and has a strong profile relative to his rivals.
Dangers: 6. Powerful Peg has been ticking over ok and is now ready to improve third-up. She must contend with a tricky draw, but her turn of foot can overcome that. 13. Nana's Wish wasn't suited first-up over 1100m, and the late market trade supported this where she was a savage drifter in the betting. Expect her to improve over a more suitable distance, and she maps well with a senior rider going on. 11. Star Impact is an honest on-pace type.
How to play it: I Am Lethal WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
I Am Lethal wins a trial at Warwick Farm on July 7
Best Bet: Race 7 # 1 - I Am Lethal
Next Best: Race 5 # 8 - Thousand Years
All the fields, form and replays for Wednesday's Warwick Farm meeting