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By Ray Hickson

Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a heavy track.

1. Adversity is bred to be a swimmer and there was so much to like about his debut third at Newcastle, powering home in what looked a handy 2yo maiden running 33.93 for his last 600m (Punter's Intelligence). Extra trip a plus and if he has any of his mother’s wet track ability he should take some beating.

Dangers: 5. Much Much Better is a nice looking grey and while he has a bit to learn based on his trial win he found the line with gusto on a soft 6. Heavy track is a different story but on what we’ve seen he is a threat if he handles it. 4. Jerle has appeared to have every chance in his four starts in Victoria to date so he’s a little under the odds for mine. His dam is a full sister to Lonhro, he’s in the mix but this isn’t any easier. 2. Bazooka might have run last at Canterbury at his second start but he had no luck in the straight. Seemed to handle a soft 7 okay on debut and wouldn’t shock if he jumps out of the ground.

How to play it: Adversity WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Adversity runs third on debut at Newcastle on January 25

1. Encountabull is an unknown on a wet track aside from winning a trial on a soft 7 and his pedigree isn’t much help. Eye-catcher at both starts to date and didn’t wear blinkers in his recent trial so they are an addition for what might be his grand final. Commands respect.

Dangers: 4. Marnix looked the goods on debut at Geelong rounding up his rivals with plenty left in the tank. Since trialled quietly on a heavy track and if he gets through the ground is a decent chance. 15. Fayerra had a bit against her last start at Randwick, not least the classy all the way winner, and she loomed as a chance in the straight before knocking up. Breeding suggests she’ll handle a wet track and is a good each-way chance at odds. 7. Charming Pat probably finds it tough on form but when it comes to heavy tracks he has just about the best pedigree to say he could sneak into a place. Only failure was in the Inglis Nursery but only beaten four lengths or so. Throw him in the trifectas.

How to play it: Encountabull WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Encountabull runs second in the Inglis Nursery in December

3. Strasbourg is very good each-way odds first-up in conditions he handles off an excellent trial. He’s a Group 2 winner and ran second on a heavy 10 last autumn. So long as they’re able to run on down the outside he can put himself in the finish.

Dangers: 5. True Detective did what True Detective does when he slid home nicely late first-up behind Pandemic at Randwick. His last win was on protest and he just hasn’t attacked the line like a winner as yet. That said a heavy track is no worry, this is his second start as a gelding off a nice return so it’s D-day for him. 14. Heart Of The Oak is a very promising filly who chased down a very much in-form mare, a winner twice since, when winning first-up a month ago at this track. Question mark in the heavy but have to be including her. 12. Rubisaki is a real winner and has a soft 7 win to her name at Flemington back in June so that suggests a heavy should be okay. Hard to line up her form but is another who can’t be left out of the chances.

How to play it: Strasbourg E/W ($19 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Strasbourg runs second in a trial at Randwick on January 23

5. Shared Ambition is the best horse racing at this meeting and the one with the most promise too. Unbeaten in three Australian runs, he’s looked very good in trials and an exhibition gallop leading in, a mile fresh suits and no reason why he won’t handle a heavy on what we’ve seen. Clearly on top.

Dangers: 3. Gaulois is an accomplished wet tracker and he was a month between runs when hitting the line well at Randwick at 1400m. He just knocked up the last 50m so will be fitter and a mile is no issue. Good chance. 1. Wu Gok is one of the better wet trackers engaged and he’ll be an improver on what he showed in the Carrington on a good track. No surprise at all to see him in the finish out to the mile second-up. 6. Hallelujah Boy didn’t come up last time in but does generally perform well fresh. Both trials have been solid and he has won on a heavy 10. That keeps him in mind.

How to play it: Shared Ambition WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Shared Ambition runs second in a Warwick Farm trial on January 21

2. Bedtime Stories is unknown on a heavy track but she looks the leader and has been very competitive in two runs back from a spell. Drew wide in the Queen Of The North at Port Macquarie, led and was run down but held the rest at bay. Good chance in a winnable race.

Dangers: 1. Voila has been going through the motions somewhat this time in with solid efforts but she hasn’t looked like winning. Much less depth in this than what she’s been meeting and is back to 1100m. Has a heavy 10 win to her name from 18 months ago but her last win was eight runs ago. This is her chance but hard to be confident. 4. Perfect Pitch carried a big weight first-up for the new stable at Canberra and battled on well over a trip short of her best. Still wants further but handles the wet and is up to this level. Keep in mind. 7. Kentucky Wildcat started big odds first-up and wasn’t disgraced on a good track and is back to mares company. If she likes the wet she could find herself in a placing.

How to play it: Bedtime Stories E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Bedtime Stories runs second at Port Macquarie on January 24

8. High Low Bet doesn’t win out of turn but she does like a wet track and her two runs back on good ground have suggested she’s going particularly well. On the back up after a closing fourth last week and with the limit weight should be competitive.

Dangers: 2. Dio D’Oro is on the back up after revelling in the heavy ground at Canterbury last Friday night and carries the same weight. No issues with 1400m and as we saw on Friday he loves the wet. Goes well again. 5. He’s A Given is never far away when he strikes a wet track and he was excellent running a close fifth on a good track first-up from a spell. Must be considered. 1. Agassi has a win and a placing on heavy tracks and showed he’s come back in good order with a close second at Canterbury. Down 0.5kg and fitter here, more than capable of featuring.

How to play it: High Low Bet E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

High Low Bet runs fourth at Randwick on February 5

2. Maddi Rocks is up in weight but back against her own age after finished over the top of them to win first-up at Canterbury. Competent in the wet, only run this track and distance was on the heavy and she kept trying. Looks the horse to beat.

Dangers: 3. Chat is racing well and not sure he was suited to leading when a close fourth here two weeks ago. Form around his previous win is strong and well worth another chance. 5. Promotions posted a soft maiden win when resuming at Kembla and he might be ready to go on with it. Beaten less than half a length on a heavy 10 here in September, in a maiden, so the ground shouldn’t be an issue. Definite chance. 4. Hey Mighty has a win over Celestial Falls from his maiden back in June then run down by that horse on a soft 6 before a break. Trialled nicely and could give a sight here.

How to play it: Maddi Rocks WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Maddi Rocks wins at Canterbury on January 31

3. Merlinite is racing in such great form at the moment she’s worth staying with despite a wet track question mark. Overcame troubles to win at Wyong and the form has held up okay. She’s a horse on the way up and being by Pierro is some hope of handling the wet. Go well.

Dangers: 2. Seeingisbelieving wasn’t disgraced in a fast run race at Randwick a month ago and his form prior suggested he wasn’t far off a wet. Has to get the middle distance on a heavy track but if he can get up on the pace he’s at his best. 5. Agosto drops 5kg and gets blinkers on after showing some improvement second-up at Gosford over this trip. Placed on a heavy here in September, appears a bit one paced but chance to see him measure up. 4. Sea Spirit was no match for Merlinite two runs back but did beat Agosto when winning last week so has to be included in the chances.

How to play it: Merlinite E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Merlinite wins at Wyong on January 26

6. Knickpoint showed plenty of promise in the second half of last year winning his first two starts, including on a heavy track, before a beaten favourite in a Listed race at Flemington where he had too much to do. Quiet trial and expect him to be rounding them up late.

Dangers: 9. Rover is an interesting runner we haven’t seen since he was a bit unlucky in running second at Randwick back on Boxing Day. Trialled okay on a soft track and if all is in order he could be the forgotten horse as he shows his share of talent. 2. Grand Bernini isn’t the silliest chance at odds here. Found 1400m a bit far at Newcastle last time but only weakened late. Huge winner before at sitting wide and has wet track form. Worth throwing into the exotics. 10. Epic Dan is generally a very good wet tracker, he hasn't been beaten far in three runs back and no surprise to see him find a placing in his preferred ground.

How to play it: Knickpoint WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Knickpoint runs third in a Warwick Farm trial on February 3

All the fields, form and replays for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm