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By Ray Hickson

It's all come down to this. Twelve horses, pretty evenly matched, vying for bragging rights in the $20 million TAB Everest (1200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Here's an in-depth look at the chances of every runner.

1. I Wish I Win (Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman/Trackside Media): He’s been to Sydney twice for wins in the Golden Eagle and TJ Smith Stakes so it would be quite a treble if he can add the TAB Everest as well. Nothing wrong with his first-up run in the Memsie at 1400m where he did look the winner early in the straight but just tired to run third behind Mr Brightside. Not seen since in a race but that’s the same formula used by Vega Magic back in 2017 and he arguably should have gone close. Where he gets to from barrier one, and how long it takes to get into the clear, will dictate his winning chance which on paper is a big one.

I Wish I Win (Pic: Bradley Photos)

2. Private Eye (Joe Pride/Max Whitby & Neil Werrett): Last year’s runner-up and shrugged off a disappointing autumn to announce his arrival as a live chance again with a strong win in The Shorts over 1100m a month ago. You had to like the way he moved in his tickover trial and it all points to him being in a prime position to produce a big Everest performance again. He tracked wide in The Shorts from an identical barrier so whether he faces the same passage here is possible. But he is tough and has a turn of foot, he’s timed well to fire and has undeniable claims.

3. Think About It (Joe Pride/Newgate & GPI): How do you fault a horse that has 10 wins from 11 starts and probably should have won the other? He’s won eight in a row including two Group 1s over the Brisbane winter and stepped up to the plate first-up to win the Premiere Stakes over this course two weeks ago. On that occasion he was left in front a fair way out and looked a sitting duck for Hawaii Five Oh but still prevailed. Draw is perfect for him, he seems to know how to win and that means we still don’t know how good he is. You’d be brave to suggest he couldn’t win again.

4. Mazu (Peter & Paul Snowden/The Star & Arrowfield): Was a gallant third in this race last year and filled the same placing behind I Wish I Win in the TJ and Giga Kick in the Doomben 10,000. That says he’s good enough. What is against him is a less than ideal lead up to this year’s race having drawn wide and being forced right back in The Shorts, he did run home in handy sectionals but was never in the race, then missing the run in the Premiere with minor lameness. Then he draws gate 11, which is the same gate he jumped from in 2022. It’s probably unfair on the horse to see him such a big price but it would be quite a performance and training effort if he was to win.

5. Overpass (Bjorn Baker/ATC & RAM Racing): The expected leader and that’s something he’s proven very good at particularly in his past few runs. He managed to hold off Amelia’s Jewel to win The Quokka back in April over in Perth then gave a big sight in front before Giga Kick ran him down in the Doomben 10,000. Looked to have them held early in the straight first-up in The Shorts but Private Eye managed to get past him despite a tougher run. That could be his fate again out to 1200m but you know he will give a big sight and a win wouldn’t surprise at all.

6. Buenos Noches (Matthew Smith/TAB): Burst onto the scene this spring with an impressive first-up win in the Show County over the Randwick 1200m before he dropped 100m and hit the line hard into third behind Private Eye in The Shorts. That run proved he measures up to this company and having drawn one inside Private Eye he could do some dictating to that horse’s chances. If he has a fault it’s probably that he is expected to be in the second half of the field and if it’s hard to make ground, either due to tempo or pattern, that’s his big issue. Certain he’s good enough to win the race if things go his way.

7. Hawaii Five Oh (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Aquis): Brother to two time Everest runner Libertini and earned his spot in the race with his narrow defeat behind Think About It in the Premiere. Can he turn the tables? What happens from barrier 10, does he roll forward onto the speed or look for a back to follow into the race? Small question on whether that Premiere run was a bit of a grand final to get into the Everest and the winner of that race will be fitter. Plenty of questions, but a repeat performance would put him in the finish.

8. Alcohol Free (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Yulong Investments): High profile former UK mare whose last win was in the July Cup at Newmarket last year, a race that requires a tough performer to win. She’s hard to line up because her local debut back in April was at a mile and she knocked up there after looking a chance on the turn and her run in the Premiere was sound without having the best of luck. She doesn’t win that race but she could have finished closer. Do they push the button with her and make it a strong 1200m? Hard to be confident about her but at the same time she could give some cheek.

9. In Secret (James Cummings/Godolphin): Started favourite in The Shorts and was clearly looking for 1200m as she ran on into fourth placing there. That was on the back of a sound return in the Concorde where, again, 1000m was too short but she just missed. There’s nothing wrong with her Randwick 1200m credentials, her only failure was in the TJ Smith on a heavy track, though there is a suspicion she’s better down the straight. They may ride for luck from the wide barrier, surely she doesn’t burn forward, so will be relying on the race being run to suit. Of course she’s good enough if that occurs.

Espiona (Pic: Steve Hart).

10. Espiona (Chris Waller/Chris Waller Racing): Talented mare who has the sort of turn of foot you need to be competitive in an Everest. She enjoyed a perfect run and, while still wanting to get her head to the side, dashed away to win the Golden Pendant against the mares three weeks ago. The draw is huge for her chances of being in the finish, she should be able to be smothered away with plenty of cover and if she does find a gap at the right time she might well surprise a few and cause a big scare, if not blouse them.

11. Shinzo (Chris Waller/Coolmore): How do we assess the Golden Slipper winner on the back of his first-up unplaced run in the Golden Rose? On face value he was ordinary but a closer look shows he did run some very nice sectionals late and was only beaten 2.6 lengths. He also pulled up 2/5 lame so that’s also an excuse. He’s been back to the trials and went around safely and drawing the middle isn’t bad for him. His jockey has won three Everests so that’s a tick and this year might be a good opportunity for another three-year-old to measure up.

12. Cylinder (James Cummings/James Harron Bloodstock): Aside from his heavy track failure in the ATC Sires’ earlier this year this colt has done nothing wrong. Thought he was a bit average in winning the Vain Stakes first-up but clearly took benefit from it when running the Run To The Rose after overcoming traffic. Gallant as they come in the Golden Rose where he was stuck wide following a quick getaway but he still surged at the line late. Again, could be a good chance for a quality three-year-old to strike and he has blinkers on and an ideal gate for his style of horse. Has to be a big chance.

SPEED MAP: This is the million dollar, or $20 million you could say, question. How will the race be run? Overpass appears the leader, he's drawn to lead and he races best when he can run along at his own speed. If there are no moves from the likes of Hawaii Five Oh or Mazu from out wider, or even In Secret, then it could be left to Overpass and probably Cylinder to be the first couple in running. Three back on the fence wouldn't be the worst spot for I Wish I Win if he found it and it's unlikely the Pride pair of Private Eye and Think About It will be in that leading few. Perhaps midfield in the latter's case. Shinzo raced fourth and fifth at his second start but has largely been in the second half, Buenos Noches generally is middle to back too. Alcohol Free is another query as to where she lands. The only certainty is that Overpass leads, whatever happens after that depends on what early decisions the jocks make.

SELECTIONS:
1 I WISH I WIN
12 Cylinder
3 Think About It
6 Buenos Noches

All the fields, form and replays for TAB Everest Day at Randwick on Saturday