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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 2 $1 million Newcastle Herald Hunter (1300m) at Newcastle on Saturday.

1. Private Eye (Joe Pride): You’d have to go back a fair way in his career to find a race that’s more suitable on paper than this one. The question is, how is he going? Hasn’t won since last year’s Shorts but he’s been largely competitive in everything, just lacking that right set up most of the time. He ran well in the Everest and while you’d say he had every chance in the Russell Balding he still stuck to it and held fifth with Bella Nipotina, Sunshine In Paris, Lady Laguna and Mazu ahead of him. The wide gate is no issue if he can jump well and hold a position because the field should break up a little, considering his record 60kg is fair and he’s been doing some schooling to sharpen him up. The best version of Private Eye is your winner, the gamble is whether he’ll produce it.

Coal Crusher (Pic: Bradley Photos).

2. Coal Crusher (Joe Pride): Winner of this race in record time last year, leading throughout, and also won a Benchmark 88 two years ago over the same course. You’ve got to be forgiving of his beaten margin in the Russell Balding after he became involved in a high speed duel up front and was eased down from the 200m. Up 2.5kg on the win last year and showed he was tracking well, prior to last start, with a gallant effort in the Premiere Stakes and when he chased Overpass home in the Sydney Stakes. That effort puts him right in the game. He’ll offset the wide gate without any worry and either lead or track Felix Majestic you’d imagine. You’ve got to have a question mark after that last run but if you forgive it he’s a major chance of going back-to-back.

3. Rustic Steel (Kris Lees): The lone Newcastle trained galloper in the race and he’s bringing a strong record on his home track into it. His only unplaced run here was in this race last year when he was only second-up, he’s fourth-up this time and drawn to get a similar sort of run that took him to victory last start at Hawkesbury. That was at 1500m so the drop in trip is possibly against him but his previous win was here over 1400m by a big space. Honest and rarely runs a bad race so he’s not going to disgrace himself.

4. Far Too Easy (David McColm): It all went to script in The Kosciuszko and after stalking Front Page to the corner he was able to outsprint him and that form stacked up well with the runner-up going down bravely at Flemington last week. Different set up from a wider gate but if the intention is to go forward to a degree again then things may well open up for him and he can slot in for the trail behind what should be a solid enough gallop. He’s third-up so at peak fitness and when there’s a bit of give in the track he really excels (five from six on soft). It’s certainly not going to be a firm track. He's already won at stakes level and there’s no class query here. Wouldn’t surprise if he bowls them over again.

5. Royal Merchant (Ciaron Maher): Group 1 winner in mares company last year but have to say not too many excuses can be made for her recent efforts. They’ve been fine, again in mares grade, but don’t scream coming winner. Sat second and boxed on okay in the Nivison to run third then had a soft run on the fence in the Invitation and made some ground for fifth but was never getting near the quinella. In her favour are another soft draw and a 4.5kg drop in the weights. Can only mark her a place chance.

6. Phearson (Brad Widdup): Kicked off the prep with a plucky third at big odds behind Joliestar in the Show County but not a long has gone in his favour since then. Was back and wide in the Russell Balding and he didn’t do a bad job to box on and collect $35,000 for running eighth in a race a notch at least above his fighting weight. But this race is winnable for him and he’ll get the advantage of barrier one so he can settle handy without doing any work. Only run here was a third in the Benchmark 94 over this trip at this meeting a year ago. Not without some hope.

7. Coastwatch (Richard & Will Freedman): Freshened up since two runs at Caulfield, didn’t have the greatest of luck behind Jimmystar and Big Dance placegetter Suparazi but disappointed last time out behind Mighty Ulysses though he was eased over the last 200m when well beaten. His form earlier this year would have him in the mix, good efforts around the likes of Yellow Brick and Freedom Rally, who both placed in the Five Diamonds last week, and his Luskin Star win at Scone. But that wasn’t this prep so you’ll have to take him on trust.

8. Charm Stone (SCRATCHED).

9. Cotehele (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): He’s been off the scene for just over a year since running third in the Little Dance of 2023. And he’s an interesting runner because he usually performs well fresh and his two trials have seen him hit the line quite pleasingly. Kicked off last prep with a slashing second in the Alan Brown over 1400m and with a performance like that he’d be playing some part in the finish of this. May just be in need of the run off such a long break but if the support is there and he presents well he’s a knockout chance.

10. Chrysaor (Chris Waller): Hit and miss customer who revelled in a heavy track to win fresh at Flemington but has been among the also-rans in the Epsom and the Golden Eagle. Granted they’re much stronger races. Happy to forgive those to a degree but there’s still some depth to this field and there aren’t any flashing lights to suggest he could rebound within two weeks. He has drawn well though so he will have his chance to perform.

11. Diamond Diesel (Adam Duggan): He’s been safely held in two runs back this spring, he hasn’t been smashed but he’s not been hitting the line at all. Was in outstanding form in the winter graduating to a Listed win on a heavy track but have to seriously question whether he can recapture that form on the evidence of what he’s delivered this prep. Back to the limit is a plus but win would be a surprise.

Felix Majestic (Pic: Bradley Photos).

12. Felix Majestic (Gary Nickson): Generally around 1400m is his sweet spot so he wasn’t far off the mark when leading and holding fourth at Hawkesbury over that 100m further. Game in the Bill Ritchie which produced the Big Dance winner and from his middle gate he’ll probably be first to find the lead. From there it’s down to how Molly Bourke rates him and what pressure is applied. We’ve seen him do remarkable things at times but there’s no room for error here. Expect to get a sight at the least.

13. Danny’s St Darci (Matthew Dale): Seems an unlikely runner given lack of jockey and an interstate acceptance but if things change and she’s here then she does have some form to suggest she could acquit herself well. Possibly should have given the Nivison a shake when runner-up there at big odds then backed it up at Flemington two weeks ago running a game third back to 1100m. Nicely drawn and a place chance if she’s here.

14. Briasa (Michael, John and Wayne Hawkes): Probably the hardest one to assess and he’s come up favourite on the back of five wins from six starts which has resulted in a mini-boom. Granted he could be unbeaten if not for a torrid second-up run. He’s the lowest rated horse by some margin in this race but the one with the most potential to lift it. With a versatile racing pattern he’ll have options to offset the tricky draw, but he could also be well drawn being between Felix Majestic and Coal Crusher who will both press forward. It comes down to whether he’s ready for this level, all five editions have been won by proven performers but is he different? Every chance to measure up.

15. Uzziah (SCRATCHED).

SPEED MAP: Little doubt that there's going to be good speed on, Coal Crusher sweeps across from the outside gate and Felix Majestic kicks up from the middle and they'll likely find the front. Phearson has gate one and his own natural speed that could keep that pair busy but more likely see him box seat. Briasa, Far Too Easy and Private Eye would likely be jostling for a spot just off the tempo and slot in for a trail. Royal Merchant and Rustic Steel have the ability to hold their spots and make that trio's job tougher.

SELECTIONS:
4 FAR TOO EASY
14 Briasa
1 Private Eye
3 Rustic Steel

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Newcastle meeting