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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 2 $2 million The Invitation (1400m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Zougotcha (Chris Waller): Clearly the best performed and best credentialed mare in this race but that last run is a real head scratcher. Failed to beat one home in the 7 Stakes and the only excuse that seems plausible is after sitting on speed she didn’t react well to having to chase Major Beel who went for home before the turn. Fresh and a month between runs with a tickover trial seems a good set up. If you consider her on her first-up run in the Winx Stakes, nabbed late by Via Sistina, she’s a worthy favourite and on that run the horse to beat. On the subsequent run she’s little to no chance. But you have to always forgive a horse, particularly a Group 1 horse, one bad run.

Zougotcha (Pic: Bradley Photos)

2. Magic Time (Grahame Begg): The barrier gods haven’t helped her cause but she’s been set for this race all preparation and her first-up run was more than acceptable. Was winding up nicely to be breathing down the winner’s neck when she was chopped out and had to be checked, which accounts for a lot of the 1.17 length margin. She was most unlucky in this race last year finishing third after sitting three deep the trip. Group 1 WFA winner at the Randwick 1400m. From the gate it’ll need to be a Nash Rawiller special but it doesn’t look strongly run on paper and if she can slot in she’ll be hard to stop.

3. Belclare (Bjorn Baker): Still a little hard to assess her on her two runs since coming across from New Zealand. Went way too hard in the Sheraco first-up then took on all comers in the Alan Brown where she sat third on the fence, got out in plenty of time but didn’t hit the line with any gusto. She was a Group 1 winner over a mile before switching stables so she does have some talent, and the blinkers come off here. She has the option to be the leader from gate three, but is one to take on trust.

4. Royal Merchant (Ciaron Maher): Didn’t fire a shot when resuming in the Sheraco when ridden back behind a fast pace. Sat up outside the leader, hit the front in the straight then boxed on well to hold third in the Nivison. Her form is a bit mixed, she is a Group 1 winner at 1200m but the 1400m is a bit of a question mark. On her side is that the blinkers go on and she’s drawn to get a nice run somewhere near the speed. The Maher stable can do little wrong in the big races at present so she’s not without a hope but probably more as a place chance.

5. Olentia (Chris Waller): Contested this race last year at the end of her preparation and only beat a couple home but it’s a completely different set up now. She was strongly supported when winning the Nivison first-up from a spell so hits this race well and truly on the up. Showed a nice turn of foot to round them up there and the distance is no problem for her. If the race isn’t run at a quick tempo she’s capable of settling that little bit closer and has the middle barrier to allow that. She put two wins together a couple of times early on when going through the grades, hasn’t done that since she’s gone full time in Group company. But that’s probably looking for a negative. Definite chance.

6. Roots (Chris Waller): The wide barrier suggests a negative ride, though she’s never really been an on pacer anyway. There’s a good case to say she should have finished a lot closer in the Nivison, she only beat one home but was climbing over their backs on two occasions in the run on and went down three lengths. She was solid first-up in the Tibbie at this trip. So the return to 1400m is in her favour, she’s going to need her share of luck to overcome that barrier.

7. Makarena (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): She’s always dangerous when she draws well as she has that racing style that means she’s always handy in the run and if the tempo isn’t there she’s able to get a break. That happened in the Golden Pendant two runs back at this trip where she sat second, hit the lead and held them off. Didn’t love the strong tempo first-up and raced wide last start in the Alan Brown so can excuse that. Needs everything to go her way and if that happens she’s in the mix.

8. Terra Mater (Jarrod Austin): Notched two well deserves stakes wins in the Mona Lisa and the Tibbie, beating Roots in the latter, but it just didn’t happen for her in the Alan Brown. She had a reasonable run in transit, copped a bump when swinging to the outside on the turn then weakened. Inclined to be forgiving of that and coming back to mares company is a plus. What does Josh Parr do from that barrier? Generally she’s an on pace or first half of the field type so perhaps he tries his luck and goes forward. More than capable of placing at least if things go her way.

9. Roll On High (Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman): Interesting runner who attacks this race first-up since a handy effort behind Everest winner Bella Nipotina in the Group 1 Tatt’s Tiara. Beat Stefi Magnetica into third place in the Fred Best in Brisbane three runs back. All three career wins have come at 1400m and she’s had two jump outs at Pakenham leading into this, the latest clear the best as she closed in nicely late. A little hard to line her up but clearly has some ability.

10. Coco Jamboo (Peter Snowden): Excellent performance when resuming in the Nivison two weeks ago and considering she was only beaten 1.5 by Olentia, and was held up for a good portion of the early straight, she seems over the odds. All her form is at 1300m and 1400m so she will relish the extra distance and she has an ideal draw to look for a spot just off the speed. She just has to lift off that promising return, whereas in her first prep she regressed a little second-up off a fresh win, and she could be the dark horse in the race.

11. Queues Likely (Bjorn Baker): A real mystery horse, makes her Australian debut after a Group 3 win on a heavy and Group 2 placing on a soft track in Germany. Three of her five career wins have been on synthetic tracks so we’ll have to be guided somewhat by the market which at this stage is telling us she’s an outsider. She made some late ground into third behind Felix Majestic and Amor Victorious in her only local trial, that was over 1200m at Warwick Farm on a heavy track. She has been a leader or raced right on pace overseas so may hold the key to the pace in this race from her wide gate.

Terra Mater (Pic: Steve Hart)

12. Arctic Glamour (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): It’s been 12 months since her last win in the Reginald Allen last year where she beat Joliestar. In that time she’s run some excellent races, including her last start where she was beaten two lengths by Ceolwulf in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap. A mile does stretch her so coming back to 1400m against the mares is a nice formula but that outside barrier hurts her chances somewhat. She does have a big finish when saved up for the last call and that might be her best hope unless she can find some midfield cover.

13E. Miss Hellfire (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): First run for the new stable was a promising one as she settled last in the Nivison and charged home into fifth behind Olentia. That effort would suggest the 1400m is in her favour but to date she’s not won past 1200m, to be fair she’s only tried this trip once and much earlier in her career. Last win was in a Benchmark 78 for fillies and mares in December. If she gains a start would have to say only a place chance.

14E. Danny’s St Darci (Matthew Dale): Should she have won the Nivison? She’s only had three starts for the stable and has been improving with each, jumping from a Canberra Federal into that Group 3 where she had no luck at all and was only able to warm up once Olentia had already sprinted past them. All six wins are at 1200m, if she does sneak into the field she’ll get every chance from a soft gate.

SPEED MAP: It's a tricky speed picture and probably hinges on what Queues Likely does from gate 10 given her front-running/on pace style overseas. If she doesn't then it's left to the likes of stablemate Belclare, Makarena, Zougotcha and Royal Merchant to sort it out. Magic Time and Terra Mater have decisions from wider out. Potential for this to be very tactical and stop-start, which looks more likely that being solidly run.

SELECTIONS:
2 MAGIC TIME
1 Zougotcha
5 Olentia
10 Coco Jamboo

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting