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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's $1 million Illawarra Mercury Gong (1600m) at Kembla Grange. Updated Friday morning with track now rated soft 6.

1. Cepheus (Matthew Dunn): How do you fault his performances this spring? Though aided by favourable barrier draws he’s had to carry weight and under the 62kg in the Big Dance he was game chasing Attractable who had 5.5kg less. He drops 1kg into this race and again draws to effect, so you know he’ll be in the first half of the field doing no work and is impossible to ignore. Soft and heavy stats aren't great, that's the only concern but he's flying so it may not matter.

2. New Mandate (Chris Waller): Found the right part of the track and powered home in the heavy conditions to win the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury. Is it a coincidence that both his Australian wins have come at that track? Prior to that last start win he’d been thereabouts without really threatening to score so he may be one to take on trust. If he can reproduce that last effort then he’s in the mix.

Osipenko (Pic: Steve Hart)

3. Osipenko (Chris Waller): Brings easily the strongest form into the race having mixed it with Mr Brightside and Alligator Blood in the Makybe Diva at this trip. Raced below expectation in the Turnbull out to 2000m and was meant to run in the Golden Eagle but withdrawn when found to be lame on race morning. So he’s seven weeks between runs in what is clearly an afterthought. But he’s found James McDonald to ride and, as mentioned, has the depth of form on his side. Hard to beat, but beatable.

4. Surf Dancer (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Not really suited first-up in the Giga Kick, couldn’t get anywhere near the speed and followed them around. No doubt he will be fitter for that run and the mile suits a lot better. He ran sixth in this race last year at his fourth run from a spell. Imagine he will push forward to a degree with the wide gate but perhaps he’s still a run or so short of his peak.

5. Skyman (Chris Waller): Been knocking around honestly this time in and probably wasn’t suited by the downgrade to heavy when placed in the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury. Tried hard in the Craven Plate at 1800m before that. He’s ideally drawn to race near the speed here, has six wins at the mile and while he does tend to find one or two better he’s an each-way chance.

6. Kirwan’s Lane (John O’Shea): Specialist miler whose chances haven’t been helped by the wide barrier but it’s not unusual for Kembla to play down the outside, especially if a bit of rain falls. Best run this prep was last start at Randwick in a messy race where he boxed on well for fourth behind Unspoken. Tickover trial since. Needs luck but not out of it with the fire out of the track.

7. Palmetto (John Sargent): He’s had a pretty successful spring, winning the Five Diamonds Prelude, but he did have his chance in the $2m Five Diamonds two weeks ago as a $31 shot. It’s safe to say he’s not going to run a bad race but at the same time if he wins he’ll be generous odds again. If you like him, no reason to sway especially now with a bit of rain around but does look an outside chance only.

8. Communist (Michael Freedman): Has been disappointing this spring but did show something in what has to be one of the stronger form references for this race with his cheeky run in the Golden Eagle. He was a rank outsider there, off a five week break, and sat wide on the pace but was still fighting at the finish beaten under three lengths. That was with the blinkers on, too. Draws kindly here and if he can bounce off that he’s far from the worst.

9. Detonator Jack (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Super consistent type who was one of few to make ground from the on pacers to run third in the Five Diamonds two weeks ago. He’s been thereabouts without being able to snare one this time in. Back to a mile probably suits if it’s truly run and if he’s able to be saved for the last shot he’s a winning hope, the sting off the track helps his cause too.

10. Banju (Lyle Chandler): Normally as honest as they come but hasn’t been himself since he bled in the Scone Cup back in May. He hasn’t always had the favours, granted, and he was a lot better in the Big Dance third-up without being a threat. Will have to press to lead from the outside gate but his form this spring doesn’t appear good enough. If he happened to find his best he could give cheek.

11. Waterford (Chris Waller): Get back-run on horse who is dictated to by the tempo and pattern for the most part. Wins the Five Diamonds Prelude in one more bound then never able to make an impact in the Five Diamonds given the way the race was run. He’s run very well to finish fifth at a trip that’s probably at the top of his powers. So coming back to a mile suits. Last three wins have been at Rosehill. More than capable of winning if the race pans out for him.

12. Wild Planet (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Ran fourth in this race last year as a $31 chance after leading them up. Broke a very long run of outs when scoring in the Rosehill Cup at 2000m three weeks ago as a $26 chance, and the runner-up has since won, coming from worse than midfield. With gate one he’ll likely be closer and can certainly be in the finish somewhere if he repeats that last effort.

13. Spangler (SCRATCHED).

Wicklow (Pic: Bradley Photos)

14. Art Cadeau (Terry Robinson): Great effort second-up in the Barn Dance and arguably should have finished a lot closer in that race. His form has been mixed since his last win over 18 months ago and he’s yet to prove himself at a mile. But he did run a sound third in the Winter Stakes at Listed level last prep and has drawn to get a nice passage. Won’t know himself with the 52.5kg but he’s entitled to be decent odds.

15. Wicklow (Chris Waller): Looked ready to win when he resumed with an eye-catching third behind Unspoken but was a huge disappointment in the Big Dance second-up where he seemingly had a nice run. Perhaps he was too close from the good draw? That racing style of his can bring him unstuck but you have to forgive good horses a bad run. While he may be wanting a touch further the rain around helps him so there’s no way he should be left out.

16. Cuban Royale (Robert & Luke Price): Grand campaigner who won a Benchmark 78 at this meeting last year and has proven to be competitive at a good level this spring. Chased Rediener home in the Bill Ritchie and he wasn’t disgraced at Randwick two starts back when a long way off them into the straight. Forgive last time with the track downgrade, he was only beaten a bob of the head for third. Loves his home track and it wouldn’t shock if he ran into a placing.

17. Superium (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Well placed to win the Taree Cup then ran on without threatening back to the mile in the Big Dance. Where he’ll get to in the run will be dictated by the barrier, imagine it will be the second half, so will need some luck. Record says he’s hit and miss and should be taken on trust.

18E. Loch Eagle (Kris Lees): He’s run back into form this time in and backed up his handy effort in the Big Dance Wild Card with a dominant win over 1500m at Randwick fourth-up. Drops 7kg on that win and has a versatile racing pattern. There are others more proven at this level than him but if he gains a start, with the soft ground a huge plus for him, it wouldn’t surprise if he's able to rise to the occasion.

SPEED MAP: This is a tricky one speed wise and track pattern by race seven will be crucial. Watch for any change of tactics notices. Natural front runner Banju has the outside gate so he'll roll forward, Surf Dancer more than likely does the same up to a mile. That leaves Wild Planet in barrier one and Skyman in six as the only other possible on pacers. Cepheus can again get a perfect trail, Palmetto is generally handy. Osipenko tends to race in the first half so there's an option from a middle gate to be put into the race.

SELECTIONS:
9 DETONATOR JACK
3 Osipenko
8 Communist
18 Loch Eagle

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Kembla Grange meeting