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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $500,000 The Coast (1600m) at Gosford on Saturday.

1. Welwal (Chris Waller): Came to Australia with a solid reputation to run in the Golden Eagle in the spring and so far he’s yet to prove to that level. However, his last three runs have been honest and a sign he’s settled in now and is racing consistently. Runner-up to Bandersnatch in the Doncaster Prelude, with Diamil third, after racing wide with cover then scrambled into second behind Tamerlane at Randwick back to 1400m. First time he’s drawn a soft gate and he should be competitive.

2. Military Expert (Annabel Neasham): Forgive run when resuming in the same race as Welwal three weeks ago where he sat wide near the speed and gave ground. Clearly he was expected to run well given his $6 starting price. Different set up for him here from gate one on a good track and he was Group 1 placed in the Toorak Handicap (with 52kg) in the spring. On that kind of performance he must be hard to beat though safely held in three subsequent starts in a Group 2, the Golden Eagle and that BM100.

3. Thalassophile (Chris Waller): Found her best form in the past few months and comes here on the back of a freshen up since her second to Gin Martini in the Epona over 1900m, where she may have been a touch unlucky. Ticked over well in a trial just over a week ago. She’s been here twice for two placings including a second in the Group 3 Belle Of The Turf back in December where she came from near last. Had a five week gap when coming back from 2000m to a mile and winning the Group 3 Aspiration two starts ago. Hard to ignore.

4. Zoe’s Promise (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Sent out a $5 chance in the Carbine Club on a heavy 8 and clearly didn’t like the conditions as she led and dropped out to be beaten 11 lengths. Her previous two wins were on wet tracks so the Randwick heavy definitely not to her liking. While that last win was in a Group 2 at Moonee Valley the placegetters haven’t managed to win since so the form not strong. Only placing on good ground was first-up and it's hard to make a strong case for her.

Palmetto (Pic: Steve Hart)

5. Palmetto (John Sargent): Strong winner second-up at Hawkesbury when coming back 100m on his first-up placing. Hasn’t started in single figures in seven Australian starts but those two runs back suggest he’s in excellent touch at the moment. Not sure where he finds himself from a tricky barrier and while there is more depth in this field he comes down 3kg and if he can get the right run he’s an each-way chance.

6. Loch Eagle (Kris Lees): Talented galloper though tends to be a backmarker and that leaves him dictated to by things like pattern and tempo. Booming win to qualify for the Provincial-Midway Final then did a great job from the back in the Final making his run wide while the winner stole ground along the inside. Thought he was just okay in the Tamworth Cup, he raced midfield there and just held his ground. The outside barrier isn’t so much a concern for him as he would get back anyway, so his chances come down to those tempo and pattern factors.

7. Pretty Amazing (Chris Waller): Charged through the grades 12 months ago but didn’t come up in the spring and had a limited prep. She’s back to her best this time around, though, with successive easy wins at Hawkesbury and she won’t know herself down on the 52kg. She’s another backmarker but perhaps from a handier draw she can be that little bit closer. While last start was 1800m she has an excellent record at a mile and should be respected.

8. Bellatrix Black (Kris Lees): Unplaced in all three Australian starts to date at Group 3 level though fair to say she hasn’t been disgraced in a couple of them. A look at her New Zealand form suggests she’s probably better at 2000m and above and on what she’s shown here she will settle in the second half of the field despite the good gate. Prefer to wait until she hits her straps.

9. Razeta (Kris Lees): Impressive stakes winner at Randwick on heavy ground a month ago then went to the Hawkesbury Guineas on a soft 5 and started favourite. Managed to snatch third but she was outsprinted after tracking the winner into the home straight. Prepared to forgive her only other attempt at a mile as she’s put a couple of good runs together. There’s no doubt she’s talented enough to win this race if the circumstances work out in her favour.

10. Pervade (Chris Waller): Import who attracted some specking at his local debut at Hawkesbury finishing midfield behind Palmetto. He did race wide without cover for most of that race so he didn’t do a bad job to be beaten under four lengths. From a price perspective he started $9 vs Palmetto’s $16 at Hawkesbury and was around three times that horse’s price when markets opened for this race. No doubt he’ll be better for the run, not sure whether Gosford will suit him but can see him improving with a more favourable run. Upset chance.

11. Attractable (Sara Ryan): Ran his best race in three runs for the new stable when leading and holding off all but I’ve Bean Tryin’ over a mile at Warwick Farm. Drops 8.5kg on that but from the wide gate will likely have to make use of the light weight and look to get across on the speed. Wonder whether his form is a rung below what’s needed to win this race but if he finds the lead he could give some cheek.

Kayobi (Pic: Bradley Photos).

12. I’ve Bean Tryin’ (Matthew Kelley): Progressive galloper who was able to run down Attractable to win at Warwick Farm on the back of his eye-catching run in the Country Championships Final. He meets the runner-up 2.5kg worse for that win but given the dominance it probably accounts for it satisfactorily. If this happens to be a truly run mile and he finds a back to follow there’s a case to be made that he could put himself in the finish as he appears to still be on the way up.

13. Kayobi (Sam Kavanagh): With only seven starts against his name he’s the least exposed horse in the race but clearly has potential. Found his way around Gosford without any issues to win his way into the Provincial Midway Final before a heavy track brought him undone in that Final where he started $3.60 favourite. He didn’t disgrace himself running fourth but never looked comfortable. That was a month ago and he drops to the limit weight. He’s shown he can make some use of a good barrier and is simply the wild card in the race.

SELECTIONS:
13 KAYOBI
3 Thalassophile
2 Military Expert
10 Pervade

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Gosford meeting