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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Listed $3 million Big Dance (1600m) at Royal Randwick on Tuesday.

1. Here To Shock (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Couldn’t be going better this time in with a second to Another Wil then his wins in the Cameron, which qualified him for this, and the Alan Brown. That’s why he has the 62kg to carry. On his side is that Nash Rawiller has been on board in both wins and he might feel a sense of déjà vu as a year ago he rode Cepheus into second placing with 62kg and barrier one. He’ll need a nice run to see out a strong mile under that weight but there’s no way you should be leaving him out.

2. Detonator Jack (Ciaron Maher): The Epsom was a bit of a non-event for him as he finished last after never really getting into the race. Prior to that he was shaping up pretty well beaten just over a length in both the Winx Stakes by Via Sistina and the 7 Stakes by Fangirl. Pretty serious form lines. He does have the wide gate to contend with but he’s a strong mile, he won The Gong late last year to gain his eligibility, and any rain would help his cause. Each-way hope.

3. Lion’s Roar (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Outclassed at Group 1 weight-for-age in the King Charles III Stakes so we’ll overlook that one. Form prior was solid with a close second in the Rowley Mile and his Wyong Cup win, which saw him eligible for this race. He did run second in the Little Dance last year. Another with a wide gate but we know he’s a good Randwick horse and he’ll be running on strongly.

Gringotts (Pic: Bradley Photos).

4. Gringotts (Ciaron Maher): Won the Tamworth Cup earlier this year to lock away his eligibility and his two runs back show he’s right on target for this race. He has some work to do with that barrier, however. It’s said ad nauseam though that the Randwick mile is a very fair start for wide gates so if Tommy Berry can find his right spot the gate won’t be an excuse. He is flying, he should have won the Bill Ritchie then solid behind Here To Shock in the Alan Brown. Only gets half a kilo advantage at the weights. He’s hard to beat no doubt.

5. Sky Lab (Paul Perry): Scone Cup winner back in May and his preparation into this is eerily similar so he commands a bit of respect. He was first-up off four barrier trials at Scone and that’s the preparation he’s been given to tackle this race fresh. Only won one from 14 at Randwick but his last run over this course was a handy third back at the end of December and he’s drawn well for the style of horse that he is. Dark horse of the race for sure.

6. Hezashocka (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Ploughed through the wet to win the Gosford Cup back in May which saw him eligible for this. Comes into the race fresh since a Brisbane winter campaign where he won the Premier’s Cup over 2400m. He has two problems coming here, one is he’s far superior on wet ground (zero from 16 on good) and a mile is right at the bottom end of his powers. If it’s a wet mile he’s in the mix but on a relatively dry track probably gets outsprinted.

7. Redstone Well (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): Port Macquarie Cup winner a month ago which gets him into this race and he has to handle the drop to the mile from the 2000m there. Fair to say he’s right at his best when he’s at that trip and beyond but he does have some good stats at the Randwick mile. If it becomes something of a test he might come into his own but place claims with the drop in trip at this stage of his prep.

8. Suparazi (Ben Brisbourne): One of the first to be eligible for this race via his Snake Gully Cup win last year. He’s been around the mark without winning this season, was placed at Rosehill over 1400m three runs back behind Willaidow then chased home Jimmystar at Caulfield. Ran on without threatening in the Crystal Mile at the Valley last time out. Has a consistent record so is one of the each-way hopes.

9. Time Quest (Matthew Smith): Coffs Harbour Cup winner (that race produced last year’s Big Dance winner) back in August and he improved nicely at his second run from a freshen up to place behind Tavi Time at Warwick Farm. Is worse off at the weights against that horse but gets the blinkers back on. Yet to win on a good track, though placed four from five, with his best form coming on soft ground. A good track wouldn’t rule him out of the chances.

10. Floating (Matthew Smith): Won the Nowra Cup late last year so has been eligible for this for some time and his form this time in says he’s shaping up quite well for his target. Brilliant winner over this course two runs back with 59kg then solid behind St Lawrence here on Epsom Day. Nice weight drop though the wide gate could see him a bit further back that ideal. Any rain would assist but he doesn’t necessarily need it to be competitive.

11. Ducasse (Michael Freedman): Won his way here with a popular Wild Card win on Everest Day. Vastly different scenario for him this time though from the wide gate where if he runs to pattern he will be giving away a tidy start. While that last start win was expected to a degree it was also something of a breakthrough so he will need to back it up. If he gets the right run he can make his presence felt but suggest he’s a place chance.

12. Tavi Time (Kris Lees): Promising type who has been set for this since winning the Mudgee Cup in December by a big space and his second-up win at Warwick Farm under 60kg says he’s hitting his peak. Only defeat at the mile came at the end of his autumn prep in The Coast on a heavy track and he still ran well in the Provincial-Midway Championships. Winkers on, right down in weight, right at his top it’s hard to believe he wouldn’t be right in the finish.

13. Overriding (Nathan Doyle): Consistent mare probably at the top of her distance range but earned her spot winning the Muswellbrook Cup. Recent form has been handy, placed in the Tibbie after leading though was a shade weak at the mile here on Epsom Day. Back to her best with a close third to Willaidow at 1400m last time in a good form race. That wide gate will make it tough but she could give some cheek.

Tavi Time (Pic: Bradley Photos)

14. Cranky Harry (Matthew Dunn): Cantered home in a Highway over this course back in July and won the Murwillumbah Cup two starts later in similarly easy fashion. This is a big step up but he’s ready for the mile again after two runs at 1400m leading in, the latest running on into second behind Yellow Brick. Same weight here and there’s more depth so he’s a place chance.

15. Sneak Preview (Peter Nestor): Upset winner of the Dubbo Cup to get him here running pretty slick time. Since then he dropped to 1200m and hit the line as you’d want to see into a close fourth out at Coonamble. Have to treat the Dubbo win as an anomaly as he’d been out of form for a while prior to that so he’s likely to struggle here.

16. Green Shadows (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Always been a bit on the hit and miss side but things went his way when scoring easily in the Goulburn Cup to gain eligibility. Two runs since then have also been at 1400m and the latest the best of those but there’s a lot more depth in this race and from the outside barrier he’ll need plenty of favours. Best of luck to connections.

17. Vivy Air (Ciaron Maher): Her last start second in the Wild Card gained her a start after she was a beaten favourite in the Dubbo Cup. Both wins to date have been at 1200m and she is only lightly raced so there’s likely to still be some upside to her. The draw gives her every chance to get an economical run but would need to put in a career best to be winning.

18. Prince Of Helena (Craig Weeding): Won the Narrandera Cup back in July and was freshened up after one more run to target this race. You’d have to say he’s tracking the right way with a handy effort at Sandown then improved into a placing at Caulfield both at big odds. He finished second last in this race last year, having also won at Narrandera, but he seems to be going a bit better in his two lead up runs in similar races so he can improve on 2023’s position.

19. Zouatica (Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones): Generally a bold on pace type of horse but he’s been a bit inconsistent in recent months. Won the Moruya Cup in easy fashion to become eligible and was a Benchmark 78 winner at Kensington two starts back. Disappointed at Warwick Farm after that but does drop 8.5kg, against that he’ll have work to do to get across from near the outside. Stable produced a placing in this race a year ago but he’ll need luck to replicate that.

20. Money From The Sky (Sara Ryan): Pretty much the definition of enigmatic but when he produces his best he’s a smart horse. He did just that in his easy Bathurst Cup win two starts ago to earn his ticket and have to say he was sneakily good off a freshen and back to 1400m on Everest Day. He ran the second fastest last 600m of the race coming from near last. Mile and a wide-ish barrier suit him and if he finds the right back to follow he can beat more home than beat him.

21E. Sharp Shock (Rodney Northam): Had a bit of an unorthodox lead up given after he won the Coonamble Cup to gain eligibility he dropped to 1100m and carried 63kg to victory at Scone. That was clearly to keep him ticking over and to win was probably a bonus. Almost $14,000 for a barrier trial as it were. He's drawn well and showed with a Group 3 placing earlier this year that he's handy on his day and if he found his way into the field could easily place at odds.

SPEED MAP: With a 20 horse field you'd have to think there'll be some early pressure and it likely comes from wide out with Zouatica looking to offset his gate. Overriding and Cranky Harry can follow across and this might give the likes of Gringotts and Detonator Jack some chance of slotting over as well. Here To Shock lands behind whoever leads and Tavi Time can be better than midfield. Not expecting a high speed contest, however.

SELECTIONS:
12 TAVI TIME
4 Gringotts
1 Here To Shock
5 Sky Lab

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday’s Big Dance meeting at Randwick