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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.

The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a heavy track.

1. Tycoonist has been a heartbreaker for punters all preparation. It all looked perfect for him last start but we know it that ended. The three-year-old led, had his chance, before stablemate Papal Warrior peeled off his back and grabbed Tycoonist on the line to record his second win from 19 starts. There was three lengths back to third, running two lengths quicker time than the fillies and mares 1300m on the same day. They did go two lengths quicker in the early stages. Tycoonist tackles the same track and trip as last start with the obvious difference being a drop back from BM78 to BM72 which sees him jump to 60kg (up from 55.5kg). Drawn the inside again, expect Tommy Berry to be positive but play the stalker this time. Gets another chance.

Dangers: 3. The Empire has never been beaten when he has found the front. There’s a chance he controls this race as he did at Warwick Farm last start before putting three lengths on his rivals. Fit, flying and makes his own luck. 8. Bazooka will improve on what he did first up when finding 1100m too sharp. Was well supported in betting and has a Group Three placing over 1300m on a heavy track to his name. 11. Honeycreeper is the untapped improver coming off a dominant maiden win at Newcastle first up.

How to play it: Tycoonist WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Tycoonist running second last start

The Rosehill 1100m is a perfect kick off point for veteran sprinter 1. I Am Capitan. The fact he presents here first up suggests he is ready to go fresh for trainer Dean Mirfin, who also owns him, and his fresh record reads 7:1-5-0. His record over this trip is 10:1-6-2. The eight-year-old had retirement plans shelved last preparation with the speedster pulled out of a paddock and back to the races after a 42 weeks break. He hit the ground running with a first up second at Warren where the winner broke the track record before placing in three of his subsequent four runs. Should have the speed to lead this field up and give a sight from in front. Looks to be the one that the early market has missed.

Dangers: 3. Hellenism ran second to Mirra Vision first up flagging that she was back as well as ever despite a year on the sidelines. Happy to forget her subsequent seventh in BM72 company as don’t think she was at home leading – let her chase this time. That was her first try on a heavy track too so a drying track on Saturday would perhaps enhance her claims. As it would for 4. Anethole. He’ll give away a start and be thundering home again. The draw looks awkward for 12. Moetta but she warrants respect after her Highway placing last start. 13. Lady River has won two straight this time back, and brings 1100m form, not 1000m and 900m lead ups like a few others.

How to play it: I Am Capitan EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

I Am Capitan trialling at Bathurst recently

2. No Compromise is well found in the market but he is the horse to beat. The four-year-old is creeping up in the weights, now carrying 60kg, but he can’t have done much more in his three starts for Chris Waller since coming across from New Zealand. He cleared out with Stockman two starts ago, winning over 2400m, with Stockman since winning the McKell Cup, before dropping back to 2000m yet still outstaying Lackeen. It was courtesy of a tactically brilliant ride by James McDonald to take off when he did but No Compromise sustained a long run. Back out to 2400m suits, as does the run of wet tracks he has found since being transferred. Tommy Berry jumps back on having steered the son of Pins to victory when beating Stockman.

Dangers: 9. Admit It was disqualified last start after the jockey weighed in light. 6. Brown Thomas and 5. Kaapfever were promoted to first and second so it’s an important form reference here. Drops to 51.5kg which gives him the chance to atone for Graham Brown. Swap the rides and you get a different result in last Saturday’s Stayers Cup over two miles where Kaapfever ran on into second. The wetter the better. 1. Approach Discreet hasn’t really looked likely in his two Sydney runs this time back but is a 2400m Rosehill winner, beating Parry Sound. 4. Desert Path sets up to improve sharply.

How to play it: No Compromise WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

No Compromise winning last start over 2000m

Impossible race. 3. Magic Ruler hasn’t been given his due respect in the market despite winning over this track and trip last start, easily accounting for 4. Fastconi. It was a ground-saving ride from Jason Collett that saw him get home but it was a dominant margin at the finish. Has shown this campaign that he loves it wet, winning first up on a heavy track at Canterbury. The Matt Dunn-trained gelding has obviously returned in fantastic order. He showed glimpses of ability early days but couldn’t put one away with seconds to Mr Colourful and 8. Yardstick, which ties in well here. Should have the speed to offset the wide draw. There’s deadest 10 chances in this so want to be with one at odds.

Dangers: It’s easy to mount a case that 2. Joviality is the best horse in the field but she isn’t the best suited. She’s first up over a trip short of her best and drawn wide over the Rosehill 1100m. Keep her safe but it’s a big task. 1. Vreneli hasn’t done a lot wrong in his career, winning three of his four starts. Has trialled three times ahead of his return so looks ready to go and should find the front. 9. Ibaraki is untapped and wanted to find him in this but his figures weren’t very strong on debut. That said, he did it with gears up his sleeve. Want to see him again, however, and the draw is tricky. Fastconi might want further to turn the tables on Magic Ruler. Then there’s 7. Sixgun, 5. Kinloch and Victorian 6. The Big Easy.

How to play it: Magic Ruler EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Magic Ruler winning last start

There is a lot of speed in this capacity field but countering that is the fact it’s Rosehill 1100, a track and trip you don’t want to be giving away five lengths at the top of the straight at. 2. Catapult maps to find that sweet spot in between if he can hold some sort of position from the low draw. He won two races at the backend of a busy preparation last campaign, his dues for an incredibly consistent five months. In 11 starts he never finished further back than fifth, and there were a couple of near misses in there too. Richard Litt has tuned up the five-year-old with a recent Warwick Farm trial and although this distance is as short as he wants it, the map, and his class, provide him the chance to overcome it.

Dangers: No knock on 9. Our Bellagio Miss as the favourite. She is an honest on pacer that just keeps stepping up every time Greg Hickman raises the bar. Was only beaten two lengths by Malkovich first up despite travelling deep throughout. The winner has since won again while the runner up Hulk ran a subsequent luckless second. 15. Kawakini is a knockout now she has made the field. Likes it wet and will appreciate a fast tempo up front. 8. Just Field lost her rider last start but has since been back to the trials where she looked sharp. The knock is where she’ll get to from the gate but her recent form warrants plenty of respect.

How to play it: Catapult WIN ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Catapult trialling at Warwick Farm recently

Can 9. Cisco Bay hold his form second up? He backed up a couple of brilliant trials with an eye-catching fresh win that was backed up on the clock. Punters Intelligence shows that the six-year-old recorded 34.21s for his last 600m, which was 2.5 lengths quicker than the next best in the race (Blondeau). He sustained a powerful closing sprint all the way through the line despite settling last and being first up. This is deeper but off that win he has got 8. Canasta covered and has a 2-1 head to head verdict over 3.New Arrangement which ties in the other obvious form line rather neatly. There isn’t a lot of speed on paper, so that’s a tick for Canasta, but the kinder draw will give Tommy Berry the chance to be midfield in the run.

Dangers: New Arrangement got the better of 1. Grand Piano last start but there’s a 4kg swing here and Grand Piano only has to hold his form to be in the finish again. Out to 1500m suits now and the wet track won’t stop him. That’s no knock on New Arrangement. Resumed a winner and rarely runs poorly. Don’t expect him to go backwards. 7. Oscar Zulu is building a picket fence winning his last two. The latest of those on the back of a clever Hugh Bowman ride to land outside of the leader in the run. It was a dominant win and you get the impression we still haven’t seen the best of the three-year-old.

How to play it: Cisco Bay WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Cisco Bay winning from last first up

Lighting to strike twice for 5. Papal Warrior. It took the four-year-old a long time to bring up an overdue second career win a fortnight ago beating stablemate Tycconist. That was on the back of a perfect Kerrin McEvoy ride, who sticks. The constant throughout Papal Warrior’s 19 start career is how comfortable he is on wet tracks. Would be even more confident about his chances if the track stayed heavy but a soft deck is fine. He has had four previous tries over the Rosehill 1500m for one placing. That was the only one of the four on a wet track, the other three were all on good surfaces, and he ran second to Montefilia. He’ll hold his form. Have absolutely no doubt about that. Has to be in the finish again.

Dangers: 4. La Chevalee should have won last start. She was held up in the straight, unable to build through her gears. Watching the replay, 100m past the post she is two lengths in front. From the wide draw and apprentice Louise Day on, expect her to be fired out to settle in the first two. 10. Wild Chap will come across with her. He was dominant at Canterbury last start and strikes the right kind of race at the right time. If you’ve been with 11. Key this preparation, only to be left disappointed, this is the most suitable race she has run in all campaign, out to 1500m, with the winkers on. Don’t think 1. Badoosh is as far away from another win as his form suggests. 15. Buba, 6. O’Mudgee and roughie 9. McGeehan are hopes too.

How to play it: Papal Warrior WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"He's so well placed that he has to be in the finish again."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray expects lightning to strike twice for this last start winner @rosehillgardens @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/X1M7oBAklg

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) July 2, 2021

14. Mollycoddle sneaks into this down near the limit. The Godolphin three-year-old resumed a winner at Canterbury first up before two subsequent forgivable efforts. Two starts ago she stayed at 1100m in the Listed Denise’s Joy where Ballistic Lover ran her rivals into the ground. That can happen at Rosehill over that trip. Then she stepped out to 1300m on the Kensington track at midweek level, carrying 59.5kg, but was forced to switch back to in the inferior inside going. Hoping that the low draw gives Kerrin McEvoy the chance to park midfield as opposed to last. The Lonhro filly charged through the grades last preparation and on rain affected ground. Don’t overlook her in this.

Dangers: 6. Vitesse is an honest on pacer and Nash Rawiller rides her well. She won last start on the back of a clever James McDonald ride to find the right part of the track. Should lead. 12. Starla is close to another win and like the small field for her as she has a habit of finidng trouble but she hasn't been at home on heavy tracks in the past. Keep an eye on how the market reacts to this late in betting. The same can't be said for swimmer 8. Epic Dan.

How to play it: Mollycoddle WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Vitesse and Mollycoddle last start

A dozen here have their hoofs on the till but want to side with 6. Harpo Marx at the odds. Loved the return of this five-year-old at Rosehill a fortnight ago behind Oscar Zulu. The Bjorn Baker-trained import was held up in the straight yet Punters Intelligence shows he still clocked the fastest last 600m home (35.45), which was a length quicker than the next best. For a horse with a 5:0-0-0 fresh record, it was a fantastic first up run. Second up it’s a different story as the son of Galileo comes to hand quickly, having never missed a place at his second run back (3:0-2-1). Rachel King sticks and drawn perfectly, should give him his chance. Looks overs.

Dangers: 13. Wicklow is charging through the grades at the moment, chasing four straight. This is by far his hardest test, however, so reluctant to dive in at a short price. Was entitled to win like he did last start at $1.40 against that field. 7. Lackeen has been pipped at the finish at his last two. Only has a two week turnaround here and draws awkwardly. 9. Accountability has run well over 1500m twice and the timing is right to get out in trip. He can improve enough to give this a shake. Respect the different form line of 2. Maseratie Bay. 1. Berdibek has a whopping 66kg to lump!

How to play it: Harpo Marx EACH WAY ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

9. Steel Diamond resumed off a 38 week break at Randwick three weeks ago and odds on favourite Gravina scrambled home to beat her. It was a slowly run race and the form from it since, via Ulysses, Brazen Gem and Bluff ‘N’ Bluster, hasn’t stood up but she’s always had the talent and can only improve second up. That was her first start for Chris Waller. The other significant pointer to her chances here is the wet track. The four-year-old mare is yet to run a bad race on soft or heavy ground. It’s a very different story on firmer tracks. Like the step out to 1400m now, the three weeks between runs and the booking of Nash Rawiller. She’ll camp midfield and be allowed to finish off, which is how she’s most dynamic.

Dangers: 8. Expat was entitled to win the way she did last start after Sam Clipperton rode her perfectly. She can win again but she goes up in weight, out in trip and there looks to be more pressure in this. Cautious about her chances as the early favourite. 12. Miss Einstein finished less than a length off Expat and gets a 2kg swing. Wet tracks are definitely her go. 1. Invinciano will be applying pressure to Expat. For a mare that typically doesn’t fire fresh, there was plenty to take away from her first up run behind Dream Circle and Canasta. It’s the strongest form reference of any of these mares. The worry is her wet track record. 3. Saigon is in the mix too.

How to play it: Steel Diamond WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Steel Diamond first up for Chris Waller

All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday