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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.

The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a good track.

There has been a huge gulf between the very best of 2. Katalin and the very worst in her six start career to date. However, on the two occasions she has struck good tracks she has won by margins of 3.8L and 2.9L and did it in the manner of a mare destined for Group success. She started $2.20 favourite at Flemington in a Group Three in her first preparation yet ran midfield on the soft deck. She resumed last campaign, after spending over a year on the sidelines, with a brilliant midweek win on the Kensington track producing a turn of foot that was just as impressive on the clock as it was to the eye. Four weeks later she reappeared at Rosehill but floundered in the heavy conditions, finishing fifth behind Expat. Doubt we’ll be seeing this five-year-old on another wet track anytime soon. Has trialled well and there’s plentiful speed for her to park in behind before powering home over the top.

Dangers: 3. Selburose got better and better the deeper she got into her campaign last time in and ran a big race behind King Of Sparta two back in a very deep form race. Has been at her best when she can dictate, which she’s unlikely to get in this. 6. Newsreader never looked likely at Warwick Farm first up. Her subsequent trial suggests that she might be back on track but it’s concerning that her two last runs have been among the worst of her career. 1. Georgie's Pride is a speedy Queenslander that should find the fence and give a sight.

How to play it: Katalin WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"There's plenty of speed for her to park in behind before having too much firepower late."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray is looking to get the day off to a winning start at Rosehill on Saturday @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/2JXjTALCbM

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 28, 2021

2. Mightybeel looks the most likely here to go on to bigger and better things. The four-year-old had shown glimpses of ability in his first two campaigns but it all looks to have clicked now. He savaged the line first up at Gosford clocking an 11.11s final 200m. He then gave his rivals a galloping lesson over this same track and trip second up. That again saw him start a near even money favourite on the Kensington track and despite lumping 60.5kg and having to switch back to the inside, he still had too much fire power. This is a slight rise in grade but it isn’t a whole lot deeper to be fair. The biggest obstacle he’ll need to overcome is having to settle out the back, on a track that could favour those on top of the speed and in a race that doesn’t look to have another designated leader outside of 4. Margie Bee.

Dangers: That scenario makes Margie Bee dangerous and her trainer Kristen Buchanan has had 13 winners from just 53 runners this year, which sees her on track for her best ever racing season. That said, Margie Bee was beaten on her merits by 5. Solar Apex at Gosford back in early September. There’s every chance one of Chris Waller’s four runners goes forward to sit outside of the leader. Suspect it could be Solar Apex. Kept closing behind Yiyi at Randwick last start when third. Dream Runner ran second, however, and Mightybeel went straight past that horse at his subsequent run. Expecting 6. Lord Ardmore to improve sharply out to 1900m.

How to play it: Mightybeel WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Mightybeel overcoming trouble last start

A lot hinges on the first couple of hundred metres for 5. Private Agent but he could get a free ride across from the speedy 16. Testator Silens to land outside of the lead. If it plays out like that, the four-year-old becomes very hard to beat. Going off his starting price’s he was expected to win his second race well before his sixth career run but the son of Nicconi appeared much more comfortable out to 1200m at Wagga last start, leading all of the way. He won with gears still up his sleeve. Prior to that he’d found one or two rivals a touch too sharp over 1000m. That included first up when third to Leo in Highway Handicap company, where he jumped a well backed $6 pop. The barrier is the knock but that could be offset. It’s a gamble we’ll have to take.

Dangers: 6. Blow Dart was posted deep throughout in a Highway two weeks ago won by Ten Bells yet he boxed on bravely to finish third. That was on the back of a dominant 900m win at Newcastle. 2. Ice In Vancouver was prepared purposefully for a first up tilt at the Kosiuszko where he wasn’t left with any excuses having sat outside of a moderate tempo. 4. Ceasefire didn’t fire a shot in the Kosiuszko either. Both are much better placed in Class 3 company at this stage of their careers and have drawn well. 3. Casino Kid was great first up over 1100m for getting out to 1400m and beyond later in his campaign. Might find 1200m a touch sharp too but will run well. 9. Brave Enough will be charging.

How to play it: Private Agent WIN ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Private Agent winning at Wagga last start

4. Different Strokes strikes this race still on the up, unlike many of his rivals. The four-year-old only won his maiden at Wyong in early September with his latest two wins being better again. It’s easy to forget that this is still all in his first racing preparation. Two back he trounced his Class 1 rivals at Wyong before backing that up with an equally dominant win in Midway company. Trailing the speed in a slowly run race he produced a strong close to win by 2.2L going away. Hugh Bowman was on his back in both of those victories and barrier 1 should see him park in a similar stalking position. Perhaps he won’t be quite as close with four or five genuine speed horses engaged in this but he’ll turn for him well within striking distance. He’s the worthy favourite.

Dangers: If 19. Canyonero happens to make the field, by some minor miracle, look out! Richard Litt has him flying, beating Yiyi and Akihiro in his latest two wins. Last start he took ground off Zoushack. 14. Kobestar has drawn off the track but he’s another great roughie having run on behind Delexo at Kembla over 1000m at his first start for the Price yard before winning at Gosford. It’s hard to see 17. Divine Breath turning the tables on Different Strokes but her best is still ahead of her too. 12. Conrad is arguably the most talented horse in the field but his preparation hasn’t been ideal and the bar plates stay on. Then there’s 2. Dalaalaat, 6. Highly Desired, 11. Daralina Belle and even 8. Cream Rises on the back of two forgives.

How to play it: Different Strokes WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Different Strokes winning a Midway last start

2. Think It Over will collect a $1m bonus if he completes the Craven Plate-Rosehill Gold Cup double but he’ll be made to earn it with 61kg. Instead of the weight-for-age scale, which saw him so well suited, he faces different conditions which sees plenty of significant weight swings in favour of his rivals – but will it matter? The six-year-old put two lengths on his rivals a fortnight ago, making it three wins from his last four starts and that was his most dominant one yet. The loss was a 0.9L defeat to Verry Elleegant where he was posted deep throughout on a track favouring those hard on the fence. Nash Rawiller has been aboard on that entire stretch of good form and he draws a perfect barrier to park in behind the speed. Have said it before, but he’s a very hard horse to justify tipping against in this company.

Dangers: 6. Sky Lab hit the line powerfully behind Think It Over in the Craven Plate finishing second despite being unsuited by the tempo. Gets a 4kg swing at the weights to make things interesting, particularly if Josh Parr can use the gate to park closer. 3. Shared Ambition’s best two runs of his past seven have been when he has led, albeit dictating slow run races. Didn’t fire a shot from outside of the leader in the Craven. 5. Lion’s Roar was the leader in the Craven Plate and he had his chance but like the steady improvement he has made throughout the preparation. Anticipating this one to be better again.

How to play it: Think It Over WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Think It Over winning the Craven Plate

Would be very surprised if Nash Rawiller hands up on 1. Eduardo in this. There’s nothing that can match his early speed drawn inside him, unlike in the TAB Everest. The evergreen sprinter now comfortably sits in the very top echelon of sprinters in the country and this field will all need to chase him down. That’s a fair start. The obvious obstacle is the 1300m. The common knock on the eight-year-old ahead of the TAB Everest was whether he could sustain his speed over 1200m. Looking at his splits, he clocked the fourth fastest last 600m and the sixth quickest last 200m. That’s certainly better than a pass mark. Few would argue that 1100m is Eduardo’s best trip, however, and now he has to stretch it further again. He ran fourth in this race last year but wasn’t at his best.

Dangers: 2. Masked Crusader sizzled to the line in the TAB Everest, with a last 600m a whopping 3.5L faster than the next quickest. However, Tommy Berry produced a beauty of a ride, ducking and weaving through the pack. Even then he still only beat Eduardo 0.2L. It’s far from a repeatable racing pattern. The extra 100m is in his favour given the query over Eduardo. Can most certainly win but he’s always a risky proposition and is unsurprisingly well found on the back of his booming Everest run. 10. Big Parade’s Sydney Stakes win was only a few lengths inferior to that of the TAB Everest and the scratching of Prime Candidate helps offset the wide draw. Not sure where 13. Lost And Running finds himself. The defending champ 3. Gytrash had the excuse of pulling up lame after the TAB Everest. 4. Trekking never runs poorly!

How to play it: Eduardo WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Masked Crusader and Eduardo in the TAB Everest

It’s hard to ignore 9. Ellsberg’s two runs over the Rosehill 1500m. He has run over the track and trip twice for a totally dominant four length romp, albeit in benchmark 72 company, and a second to Kirwan’s Lane, with a whopping seven lengths back to third. It was a race Ellsberg wins nine times out of 10 with a performance equal to that but Kirwan’s Lane just happened to jump out of the ground, surpassing anything he’d ever done in the past, and since. Ellsberg was taken off his line in the Silver Eagle yet he knuckled down to finish a narrow second, coming again through the line. The set up for 1400m back to 1300m was hardly ideal but was the run he simply had to have. Sets up to run somewhere near his best which sees him become a player from up on top of the speed. Maps to be in the second pair if Josh Parr let’s 16. Vangelic and 4. Apache Chase cross him.

Dangers: Apache Chase has form through all of the right horses and takes luck out of the equation with his free-running style. He knocked off Ayrton in the Fred Best last preparation and the start prior to that he started $2.40 in the Queensland Guineas only for 1. Private Eye to run him down late. No horse will be finishing harder than the last start Epsom winner. The past two winners of the Golden Eagle, Kolding and Collette, both ran in the Group One handicap prior. Love how Private Eye attacked the line in his trial too. Will be giving away a big start which is the query. 2. I’m Thunderstruck is also a last start Group One winner and profiles as a rising star winning five of his eight starts. 11. Count De Rupee and 10. Love Tap map to get the runs of the race while big watch on the imports, in particular 13. Maximal.

How to play it: Ellsberg EACH WAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Ellsberg in the Silver Eagle

If 6. Delexo finds the fence this race could be over, given the history of the Rosehill 1100m. It’s very hard to peg back talented leaders and he is exactly that. The four-year-old has won three of his four starts this preparation including last start over 1000m on the Kensington track. It looked like a barrier trial for him such was the ease of it yet he broke the track record! You just have to get your head around the fact that his one loss this campaign came to 12. Fox Fighter and he meets that horse 3kg worse off for a 1.5L defeat. In Delexo’s defence he carved across from a wide draw and never really found a rhythm outside of the lead as opposed to making the running himself. Stretches to 1100m for the first time this preparation but wouldn’t think that’ll stop him given the upward spiral he finds himself on.

Dangers: With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps the drop back from 1100m to 1000m was against 4. On The Lead last start but we’re starting to run out of excuses for this frustrating sprinter. Leo jumped out of the ground last start, in his defence, but he didn’t exactly savage the line behind him. Another dry track, draws well. Gets a lot in his favour again. The form guide isn’t a fair reflection of how well 5. Dunbrody Power is going at the moment. Should have finished closer in a deep race at Gosford last start. 2. Flat Heaven raced too keen in the Sydney Stakes and dropped out. Can bounce back with a more conservative ride back sharply in grade. 3. Liberty Sun has some claims while a newly gelded 9. Monte Ditto has trialled sweetly.

How to play it: Delexo WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Delexo breaking a track record last start

5. Ma And Pa is an easy horse to oppose given the form around his three wins this preparation hasn't subsequently been franked. This is also his first time tackling Saturday company. However, in his favour is that he is hard fit now, draws barrier 1 in a race that he looks to get complete control of and Nash Rawiller sticks. He becomes even harder to beat if there is any pattern favouring those on speed. With Dear Demi his dam, there is every chance he'll be better again out to 2000m. Rawiller, who has been aboard the four-year-old in his last two wins, will know Ma And Pa's strengths. Control the first half before pinching a break. His early price is nowhere near what his starting price will be. Expect him to drift to a more backable quote late.

Dangers: 7. Golly I’m Lucky is belying his name this preparation. He hasn’t got a clean crack at his rivals in four runs. He was only momentarily held up last start behind Promise Of Success and pinched third. That’s a key race to decipher as it also provides 10. Heza Gentleman. The former hasn’t looked the same horse as the one we saw last preparation and every bit a miler this time back while the latter had absolutely no luck and may have run a hole with clear running. Don’t sell Heza Gentleman short at odds, even on a good track. 3. Easy Campese is an underrated horse.

How to play it: Ma And Pa WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Ma And Pa winning last start at Warwick Farm

16. Dynamic Impact hasn’t been done any favours by the draw but there’s no shortage of speed drawn right across the track so he could still get his chance. We’re getting the right price to find out, anyways. The four-year-old was knocking around in country races not that long ago but in typical Bjorn Baker fashion, he builds up his horse’s confidence. After winning a Bathurst Class 1 first up last preparation he was two starts later convincingly beating Fastconi at Canterbury. In between those two runs was a fifth at Scone which has turned out to be a deep race. He was last sighted running a luckless eighth behind the likes of Oscar Zulu and Tycoonist at Rosehill going to the line untested. He had something to offer too. Two trials back and gets in very light after Jenny Duggan’s claim.

Dangers: 11. Promotions was on the receiving end of an aggressive Nash Rawiller special on a wet Warwick Farm last start but it might prove to be the shot of confidence this five-year-old was in desperate need of. Had been running well prior without winning. 4. Zoushack will be driven forward by Rawiller but he’ll cop a lot more pressure than last start and is coming back to 1300m. 7. Dancing Gidget travelled into the straight like the winner first up but blew out late to finish second last. Perhaps with the run under her belt she improves sharply second up. The market might be out best guide. Anything goes in this race.

How to play it: Dynamic Impact EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Dynamic Impact winning at Canterbury last preparation

All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday