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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for more Group One racing at Rosehill Gardens.

The rail is out 6m, the track expected to be in the soft/heavy range and the first set to go at 12:30pm.

This race looks ripe for an upset. There is not a lot of exposed wet form being a field of two-year-olds and they are coming from everywhere. Bear with me as I make a case for 11. Persan at triple figure odds (has been well supported since then!) This David Payne-trained colt was a hidden run on debut at Newcastle. He was shuffled back but found the line as well as the winner Bullet Fly. Punters Intelligence reveals a 11.45s last 200m (Bullet Fly was 11.46s). Bullet Fly finished third behind Deep Chill and Still Single on debut so that ties into city form. Hoping that Glyn Schofield can use the middle draw to be a touch closer in the run. On his pedigree, Pierro out of Group One winner Ofcourseican, he should have no trouble in the going. Breeding offers no guarantees but it certainly counts for something.

Dangers: 5. Fortress Command also brings provincial form but he has won both starts in dominant fashion. In the latest of those he beat Bullet Fly comfortably. The Gerald Ryan-trained colt really runs through the line. Staying at 1400m for his third run in a row is some query given Ryan thinks the horse will get out to the mile and beyond in time but the wet track negates that. 1. Bellevue Hill’s second to Yes Yes Yes in the G2 Todman jumps off the page here as a form reference and if this was also 1200m on a dry deck, the short odds would appeal but he faces a very different task here. 2. Strasbourg also comes out of the Todman and did enough late to suggest that 1400m suits now. 6. Autocractic and 9. Dawn Too Good handled the wet well in the Pago Pago.

How to play it: Persan EACH WAY ($21 TAB Fixed Odds) and Fortress Command ($10)

Fortress Command winning at Newcastle last start

10. Main Stage finds a suitable assignment out to 2000m with the sting out. The four-year-old, last seen in Sydney when fifth in the ATC Derby behind Levendi and Ace High, should be at his top now fourth up. First up at Pakenham off a 40 week break he drove through late to run a close up third before being cut out in the G2 Blamey at Flemington. His run was better than it reads, with Craig Williams forced to take hold and throttle down. He was a touch disappointing last start but got a long way out of his ground from the wide draw and never figured. Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young have managed to snare James McDonald for the race and am hoping he drives forward. There isn’t a great deal between these so he can’t afford to give away a start.

Dangers: 2. Moss ‘N’ Dale is a swimmer and looks very well in here with 55.5kg off a 108 rating, giving just 2.5kg to the bottom weight. He hasn’t fired a shot in his two runs back, the latest in the All Star Mile, but he gets onto a wet track, with his stats reading 16:7:4-1 on soft and heavy ground. He won the Craven Plate beating Doukhan and Egg Tart over the spring at Randwick on a heavy 9. Not convinced he is going as well as last preparation but he swims. 8. Goathland was only 1.5L off Red Cardinal last start in heavy ground.

How to play it: Main Stage EACH WAY ($12 TAB Fixed Odds)

Moss ‘N’ Dale winning at Randwick last preparation

1. Madison County missed last week’s Rosehill Guineas after suffering a minor float injury but by all reports, there wasn’t much in it. Don’t hold that against him. Murray Baker has already won this race four times, the latest of those being Jon Snow two years ago before he went on to also win the Derby. Madison County was certainly suited by the breakneck speed in the Randwick Guineas the last time we saw him but he savaged the line as well as anything, including The Autumn Sun. Punters Intelligence highlights his last 600m was only 1.5L inferior to The Autumn Sun while there was very little between their last 200m splits (11.51s vs 11.55s). He was flattered by the tempo and won’t get anything near that here but this is a couple of pegs back on what he had to chase down last time out.

Dangers: We got a look at the NZ Derby form last week in the Rosehill Guineas where Arrogant gave The Autumn Sun a scare. Surely Sacred worked home into fifth while Crown Prosecutor knocked up. It was a mixed bag. 2. In A Twinkling finished a brace second in the NZ Derby and has the advantage of being able to settle closer, unlike backmarker 3. Platinum Invador. He had no luck in the Avondale Guineas before it was the same story in the NZ Derby. He charged to run third. Of the rest, if they let 10. Shaman free roll out in front like when he bolted in at Gosford two back, on a heavy track, he can pinch this! Blueblood 9. Carif (So You Think x Norzita) relished the staying trip last time out.

How to play it: Madison County WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds)

Murray Baker has won the Tulloch Stakes four times already.@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to show how strong Madison County was through the line behind The Autumn Sun last start. pic.twitter.com/g4lbcWm5lQ

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) March 27, 2019

8. Dyslexic looked the winner in the G2 Ajax last start but felt the pinch late with Fifty Stars revelling in the ground to scoot home over the top. Dyslexic produced a similar sprint first up in the Guy Walter. Perhaps it isn’t fitness but instead she possesses a lethal, yet short sprint? Her best chance will be by sitting in the first two with Brenton Avdulla cuddling her for as long as he can. She isn't at her most dynamic on wet tracks but as she showed last start, handles it well enough to still give this a shake. The four-year-old is flying this time in.

Dangers: 2. Daysee Doom will lead this field and although her most recent runs have been down on her best form, the scratching of Alizee opens this race right up. Wet track no issue and will be the horse to run down being fitter second up. 4. Noire sprinted quickly from the 400-200m in the Coolmore but couldn’t sustain it (Punters Intelligence). She’ll be in a stalking role from barrier 1. 7. Princess Posh is always underrated and is at home in heavy ground.

How to play it: Dyslexic WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)

11. Maximus is racing out of his grade but respect the placement of the very astute Snowden stable. He gets weight relief from last start where he had no luck at all behind Renewal. With 53kg on his back and a freshen between runs, which is how he does his best racing, he's right in this on the wet track. Has shown in the past he scoots through the ground without any trouble. If the five-year-old is ever going to pinch a Group race, this is the day.

Dangers: There wouldn’t be too many shocks in this, even after the scratchings. 1. Manuel won a Group One just three starts ago but he is sharply back to 1200m from the mile. That will take away his dash as he heads to the G1 All Aged Stakes back out to 1400m but this will be a very testing 1200m. The last time he ran on a wet track he was 1.5L off Fifty Stars.  5. Fiery Heights, speedy Kiwi 4. Ardrossan and 6. Estijaab, from her wide draw, will pour on the pressure.

How to play it: Maximus WIN ($12 TAB Fixed Odds)

This is a very deep crop of middle distance three-year-old fillies! We can be grateful for it as it’s the only reason we are getting black odds about 3. Verry Elleegant. How do they beat her out to 2000m on a wet track? She was brilliant winning the Phar Lap Stakes by a widening 3.5L and did it on the back of a month between runs after a setback ruled her out of the Australian Guineas. Her racing style makes you wonder whether it is just one of her quirks, throwing her head around, but it certainly didn’t detract from her finish first up. She has drawn perfectly in barrier 5 for James McDonald to relax her, the best he can, before unleashing that lethal turn of foot we know she possesses. Best bet of the day.

Dangers: 1. Nakeeta Jane hasn’t really put a foot wrong this preparation and in most years would be a very warm favourite herself. She collected the Light Fingers and Surround prompting Mark Newnham to run her in the Randwick Guineas where she ran a brave third chasing a brutal speed. Excited to see what she can do out to 2000m for the first time. Expecting 10. Frankely Awesome and 11. Scarlett Dream to close the gap on 8. Pohutukawa from the Kembla Grange Classic. She’s all class but have my doubts about the Godolphin filly staying a strong 2000m. 12. Autumn is the value for exotics off a very strong win.

How to play it: Verry Elleegant WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)

Verry Elleegant gapping her Phar Lap rivals

If the same 1. Avilius that strolled home in the Ranvet last week turns up here, he’ll win comfortably. You have to take the very skinny odds of $1.60 to find out though. He did SP at $4.40 last start having flopped as a $1.65 favourite in the Australia Cup. That’s enough to make punters a touch nervous. The five-year-old is seven from 10 in Australia but undefeated in his four Sydney starts. He skipped through the wet without any trouble in the Ranvet so that won’t stop him. Nor will the 2400m. Punters Intelligence reveals a 400-200m of 11.66s before a last 200m of 12.12. That last split was so strong and two lengths superior to the next best. He won the Bart Cummings over 2500m, albeit narrowly, and boasts a 3.5L second to Cracksman over 2400m. The biggest query for me is how he’ll cop the quick back up. That’s something he has never faced before.

Dangers: 6. Patrick Erin was badly interfered with soon after the start in the Sky High. The Metrop winner pulled up 3/5 lame post-race. Pen that run completely, then pen it again. He has been back to the trials and was full of running after the line. Don’t write him off! He is massive odds to bounce back. 3. Red Cardinal is flying for Kris Lees and again will get a wet track. 8. Big Duke has been giving away plenty of weight to WFA suits. 11. Rondinella has finished in the money her last five starts and the latest of those was third, albeit beaten four lengths, behind Melody Belle and Danzdanzdance. Roger James is of the opinion she is the best he has had since Silent Achiever. 10. Yogi next best after rattling home in the Australia Cup.

How to play it: 1,3,6,8,14 BOX TRIFECTA

Stewards vision of Patrick Erin soon after the start

Originally had Mister Sea Wolf on top but now the track is a heavy 10, it plays into the hands of 5. Mask Of Time. He is a grinder over this trip and probably wants a touch further now third up but he is so well suited after the rain came. The five-year-old will roll along out in front and be running right through the line. His Good track record is 15 starts for two placings. Get him onto wet ground and he is a completely different beast! Right race, right time. Very hard to beat.

Dangers: Five of 1. Mister Sea Wolf’s eight wins have been on the back of a short let up or first up. The seven-year-old is at his best when fresh. His form can be a little patchy but he did string two together last year before hitting the line in the G1 Epsom behind Hartnell. If he turns up in that kind of form he’ll go close here with James McDonald in the saddle. Worth the gamble at the big odds.What do we do with 3. Tom Melbourne? This is a lovely race for him. He broke the drought first up but hasn’t gone on with it since. There were excuses for his two subsequent flops. Blake Shinn has ridden him four times for a win and three seconds.

How to play it: Mask Of Time WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) and BOX TRIFECTA 1,3,4,5

A reminder of Tom Melbourne’s first up win

Like how this race sets up for 9. Spring Charlie. There isn’t a lot of speed which will allow Blake Shinn to roll forward.  The four-year-old was very brave first up at Hawkesbury in running second to stablemate Safado to qualify for the Provincial Championships Final. He found himself in front a long way from home and can only improve off that. Has had a tickover trial since, winning it at Wyong. He has raced in the wet once before and looked comfortable, albeit in taking out a Class 2 at Newcastle. Has won five from eight and gets his chance to build on that further.

Dangers: Confident that 7. Mahalangur can turn the tables on 10. Star Of The Seas with a 2kg swing and being fitter second up. Will settle closer and we know he swims. 5. Zourkhan goes well fresh and loves wet tracks. He is a big shout in this. Liked the way he ran through the line in his one trial. He gives away a slight fitness edge to his main rivals but you're getting big enough odds to find out if he can overcome that. Canberra mare 11. Who’s Knocking was unlucky not to beat Snippets Land last start.

How to play it: Spring Charlie WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) and Zourkhan ($8.50)

Spring Charlie giving at sight at Hawkesbury

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill Gardens meeting