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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.

The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a good/soft track.

Not sure what has twigged for 8. Luminoso this preparation but the three-year-old has returned at a level that will see him very competitive in this, despite still being eligible for Class 1 company. Three back he matched motors with subsequent city performer Green Flash at Newcastle, with a huge gap back to third, before knocking off short priced favourite Osamu six weeks later in a maiden that has provided four subsequent winners. Be forgiving of his last start seventh at Wyong given he went back in the run before being forced to loop the field. Zorocat railed around the tight circuit and the race was over with the two chasers enjoying inside trails. Great roughie.

Dangers: Campbell Rawiller will need to get the timing bang on with 1. More Sundays as from what we’ve seen of him this preparation, he has a short, brilliant burst of acceleration. The barrier helps that scenario. He looked the winner last start in Highway company before running out of carrots having been exposed a long way from home. Lightly raced six-year-old 13. Monterey Zar is building a handy record, coming off a game win over the Wagga carnival. 10. Denace is flying under the radar but her form around Toro Toro and Russbuss reads well for this. 6. Katgully Red is very honest at this level. Inclined to risk 7. Patino Ruby first up 1200m with her latest trial four weeks ago.

How to play it: Luminoso EACH WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Luminoso’s maiden win at Newcastle

12. Fumiko did everything right on debut, taking up a spot from an inside draw, settling in the run before quickening when asked. The Flying Artie filly won running away at Newcastle and although she didn’t smash the clock, want to trust the form with the runner up Alura one of the better maiden two-year-olds running around at the moment with prior form around Ballistic Lover, Peltzer and Anders. The Kristen Buchanan-trained youngster comes up with another plumb draw in barrier one so Rachel King will punch up to hold another prominent position. That gives her every chance to make it two on the bounce, and at double figure odds again.

Dangers: 5. Greater Harlem would be top pick if not for the wide draw. Loved the way he closed behind Overpass on debut. He still might be good enough to overcome it. 3. Kalino’s last start fourth was better than it looked to the eye having first missed the start and then being forced to loop the field. His breeding suggests he’ll relish creeping out in trip too. It’s a similar case for 7. Overmann looked to have every possible chance at Canterbury last start. Maybe we can blame the wet track but there’s a query over the Cork Harbour form line.

How to play it: Fumiko EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Fumiko’s Newcastle win on debut

2. Mensa Missile stacked up his rivals at Newcastle last start and zipped home to record the softest of wins. The margin was 4.5 lengths at the finish. It’s taken a while for the penny to drop with this four-year-old but he is flying this time back and deserves a crack in town in the strength of his recent form. From the draw, the lead looks to be his if Jean Van Overmeire, who has ridden him in his last two starts, wants it. Prior to that win, the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained gelding was touched off by Steely, with a big gap back to third, while second up he beat Geist at Kembla Grange. Will give these all something to chase.

Dangers: 5. Ruby Tuesday is worth another chance on the back of a complete forget at Hawkesbury where she went way too fast in front, packing up to finish midfield. Her win prior to that was strong. Irish import 8. Saint Of Katowice has won by a cumulative seven lengths in his two wins back this time. He didn’t beat much at Swan Hill or Kyneton but he couldn’t have done much more. 1. Charleise is the class runner here, dropping back from a BM78 at Sandown where she ran second to Bons Abroad, a subsequent Flemington winner. Keen to see 6. Kobe Rocks out to 1500m for the first time while 4. Wairere Falls can ran well fresh.

How to play it: Mensa Missile WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Mensa Missile romping in last start

Do you trust 6. Blondeau to repeat what he did first up? That’s ultimately what this race comes down to. If the three-year-old repeats that level of performance, he’ll win again. The other side of the argument is that he has produced a career peak at start 13 and surely regresses. In his favour is that he has always had ability. His run on debut behind Aim as a two-year-old was monstrous and he was only beaten by Farnan and Tagaloa in the G2 Todman a couple of starts later. Suspect he is being trained like a get-back sprinter this time back too, with the stable stretching him out to the mile in the past and dabbling with his pattern. Same again please, Blondeau.

Dangers: 2. I Am Power was pocketed by Blondeau last start and should have finished a touch closer than he did. He was first up for two years there and meets Blondeau 2.5kg better off. It’s still a stretch to suggest he could turn the tables, however. 4. Smart Image’s first up run was much better than it reads on paper, behind Marway and Count De Rupee. Could improve sharply and has won over this track and trip in the past. His stablemate 7.Charretera has a handy enough fresh record (5:1-2-1) to warrant respect while 3. Snowfire will be strong late too.

How to play it: Blondeau WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Blondeau winning at Gosford first up

4. Mirra Vision tends to always find a couple better, after winning her first three starts, but this is one of the most suitable races she has run in for some time, draws well and she always fires fresh. First up last preparation she was only beaten a length by Cristal Breeze over 1200m, finishing alongside Icebath. Take out her 1400m runs and she has a great record, boasting stats of 6:3-1-0 over 1200m. Don't think there is much between the first dozen or so in the market so the map is important and she should stalk the speed and get her chance. Open race but she's one of the forgotten runners.

Dangers: 7. Turnstyle romped in at Warwick Farm last start but how flattered was she by a beautiful front-running ride on a heavy track? Still, there is no denying she has returned well as she should have won first up too. 2. Starla is a capable mare on her day and if the speed is hot up front, could pounce. 9. Redoute’s Image is better than her record suggests, running around in Group company in past preparations, while couldn’t rule out consistent mare 6. Exotic Ruby or even 13. Twice As Special at odds. 10. Sahra has to prove she’s not just a wet tracker.

How to play it: Mirra Vision EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Is the price discrepancy between 5. Le Vizir and 2. Maranoa warranted? Le Vizir was rolled at even money last start at Newcastle but he didn’t look comfortable when asked to let down having led the field up and after being headed, and squeezed out late, he rallied again to run third. The start prior he beat Maranoa fair and square at Kembla Grange. That was despite being seven weeks between runs. Gerald Ryan has made a couple of gear changes to iron out those little greenness issues which he also showed at Wyong first up, despite winning. Races on his home track for the first time and he maps to camp in behind the speed. It sets up exactly the same as at Kembla so he’s worth a ticket each way.

Dangers: Maranoa is only a nostril away from being three from three to start his career. His last start win in the Wagga Guineas was dominant with Jean Vean Overmeire in complete control after Maranoa bounded out of the gates to take up the running. Like the way he responded to win going away on the line. 10. Quiet Michael’s two Australian runs have been terrific, the latest his maiden win at Hawkesbury at short odds. The draw is sticky, however. 9. Green Flash hasn’t really gone on with it since winning so impressively on debut but in his defence he was only beaten by Grace And Harmony last start. Big watch on betting with him. 16. Good Omens can bounce back on a firmer track with 15. Outlook the best roughie.

How to play it: Le Vizir EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Le Vizir beating Maranoa two starts ago

4. Costello’s first up eighth in the Hawkesbury Gold Cup was much better than it reads on paper. The five-year-old was never a hope having settled last given the midrace slow down. The breaks went on up front with the leader and eventual winner Archedemus sprinting home in sub 34 seconds. Costello clocked a respectable 11.38s for his last 200m though, which ranked fourth quickest in the race. What jumps off the page when assessing his chances is his second up record (5:2-2-0). The wide draw isn’t ideal but he has the speed to roll forward and find a spot out to 2000m. In October last year he knocked off She’s Ideel over this track and trip. He can mix his form a little but his best is good enough to win this and he is always big odds.

Dangers: 2. Polly Grey rises 3.5kg on the back of her Gosford Cup win and the track won’t be as wet so there’s plenty against her but she was only two lengths away in the JRA Plate prior to that, where Zaaki ran second. 14. Parry Sound jumps from BM78 grade into a Listed race but drops 6.5kg, gets a senior jockey in Rachel King and draws beautifully. Doesn’t really have a turn of foot though so the knock is staying around 2000m when he might want 2400m. 8. Looks Like Elvis kept finding the line to run second last start in the Scone Cup but hasn’t won since September 2019. The old boy 12. High Opinion is flying and Jason Collett has won on him twice in the past. Both time were on heavy tracks, however.

How to play it: Costello WIN ($16 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Spot the sneaky run of Costello first up?

📹@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to break it down with an eye on Saturday's Lord Mayors Cup at @rosehillgardens @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/rH7gf0raSa

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 21, 2021

11. Ellsberg was a beaten odds on favourite last start in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas but he had genuine excuses. The fast early pace unexpectedly set by Acrophobic, played into the hands of the closers. Prior to that the three-year-old was a dominant winner at Listed level, taking out the South Pacific Classic having led all the way. The biggest win of Ellsberg’s career came over the Rosehill 1500m and a repeat of anything like that run would comfortably win this race too. We still don’t exactly know where this Gerald Ryan and Stirling Alexiou-trained colt will get to but he’s certainly better than BM88 level. Won’t have it all his own way in front looking at the map, though.

Dangers: If it’s not Ellsberg, any number of these could win. 7. Opacity tends to fire second up (3:2-1-0) and he never got a crack first up at Hawkesbury behind 5. Impasse. He’ll be charging late. 3. Arapaho’s French form indicates he has the ability to be winning much better races than this but expected more in The Coast last start. Drops back in grade for this, however. Very tricky draw. Forget 13. Akari ever ran last start as she was crowded before being eased down. 17. Super will improve back onto a drier track. Then there’s 8. Kirwan’s Lane, 10. Betcha Flying and 14. Archanna!

How to play it: Ellsberg WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

"The biggest win of Ellsberg's career came over the Rosehill 1500m."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray expects this three-year-old to bounce back after having genuine excuses last start @tabcomau @rosehillgardens pic.twitter.com/uHu8jkMsND

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 20, 2021

Would be keen on the chances of 13. La Grisa had she drawn well but we’ll just punt on Brenton Avdulla finding a back to follow without having to give away an impossible start. The grey mare always rockets home fresh so like what John O’Shea has done here preparing her to tackle 1800m off a nine week break. The five-year-old has had three trials to ready her too. Last preparation she resumed over the mile at Warwick Farm and would have won with a clear passage home, all before ending the campaign by winning two of her last three starts. One of those wins, beating Alakahan, was that of a mare that could go on to bigger and better things.

Dangers: Victorian 1. Approach Discreet is no stranger to Rosehill having run twice on the track in the past, winning one of those, albeit over 2400m on a heavy track. Like the way his preparation is trending though. The winner zipped home in fast time at Sandown last start so there was merit in his third. 5. Steely has obvious claims having won two on the bounce, in the latest of those beating 7. Saigon at Hawkesbury. 6. Tooradin is also chasing a hat trick. This is harder but he is a lightly raced improver. 10. Mubariz is capable on his day and did enough first up.

How to play it: La Grisa WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

One of La Grisa’s wins last preparation

All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday