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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.

The rail is out 3m and the track is expected to remain in the Good range.

5. Exceedance was brilliant winning on debut at Wyong. The Hawkes-trained two-year-old wasn’t suited at all to the tight provincial circuit and Tommy Berry helped the colt around the turn before unleashing a powerful sprint late. Punters Intelligence paints the picture. Exceedance’s 400-200m ranked just 5th quickest in the field of 10 but once he clicked into top gear the son of Exceed And Excel stopped the clock at 11.38s for the last 200m. That was the fastest last 200m split across the entire meeting, which included handy filly River Bird having won over 1000m on the same day. That last 200m was four lengths superior to the next best in the race. Back in third there was the Mark Newnham-trained Blazing Miss and that filly had mixed it with the likes of Cosmic Force, Tenley, Accession and even 8. Rotator which runs here too. Everything points to Exceedance measuring up.

Dangers: The last time we saw 4. Sun Patch he started single figure odds in the G2 Skyline. He looked disappointing at the time, running fifth, but the race subsequently produced the Sires’ winner Microphone and the Champagne winner Castelvecchio. The other two horses to beat him home were Cosmic Force and Accession. His Kensington win on debut was that of a smart colt. Don’t underestimate him. 1. Splintex was a strong winner last time out, clocking fast time, and looks the obvious leader again here. The concern is the last 100m or so out to 1100m and he’ll have some company.

How to play it: Exceedance WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) and QUINELLA 3,4

Miss the brilliant debut of Exceedance?@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to reveal exactly how powerful the colt's finish was @tabcomau @VineryStud pic.twitter.com/fGHAa6aQP9

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 29, 2019

17. Vigorish caught the eye late in a TAB Highway Handicap two weeks ago over 1200m after he was dragged back to a long last from the wide draw. Like the way this four-year-old closed though and Punters Intelligence backs it up with an 11.89s last 200m. That was comfortably the quickest in the race, a length quicker than the next best Green Reign. Meanwhile, his last 600m of 35.10s was just 0.01 outside of the quickest in the race. Two kilo claimer Blaike McDougall, who is riding with plenty of confidence, sticks with the Keith Dryden-trained gelding and should have him much closer from barrier 3. Vigorish will also be at his peak now third up and is out to his pet trip of 1400m (6:2-2-1). Want to be with him at the odds.

Dangers: 9. Onemore Sapphire is another one here that appeals at a big price. The three-year-old took giant leaps last campaign culminating in a third behind Haames in a Highway over the autumn. He ran on well first up on his home track Tuncurry and would expect a similar closing effort in this. Matt Dunn strikes at around one in every four Highway runners he has. It’s an incredible record. The stable is represented by 2. Our Echo this week. The three-year-old was only beaten a length by Crafty Spirit two back (subsequently fourth in the Fred Best behind Military Zone) and then ran sixth in a Listed race. 6. Damselfly’s Kept is fast and will give a sight out in front. Forgive her last start flop.

How to play it: Vigorish WIN ($16 TAB Fixed Odds) and BOX TRIFECTA 17,9,2,11

Vigorish finding the line last start

14. River Bird finally got the maiden monkey off her back first up with Jason Coyle sending her to Wyong for a deserved breakthrough. Prior to that she was one of the better ‘maideners’ knocking around in town. The filly had run second on four occasions and all by 0.2L or less, and often without any luck. Anyways, it’s what is in front of her that counts now. She won as expected fresh (where she jumped $1.28) but boasts form lines which suggest she can string two together now. Last preparation she should have beaten Reelem In Ruby at Canterbury while the same can be said for her second to 1. Ljungberg. That day she gave Ron Quinton’s talented gelding a kilo and here she carries 5.5kg less! She looks beautifully weighted down on 53.5kg. The draw is a touch tricky but she gets back anyways. There looks enough speed for her to rattle home.

Dangers: 5. Call Me Royal, 10. Exceltic, 15. Burning Crown, 3. Above And Beyond and 12. Legislation all met at Rosehill a fortnight ago and there was just 1.6 lengths between the lot of them. That’s cause for the alarm bells to start ringing around the depth of the race. Call Me Royal is a very tough, no nonsense filly. Her racing style requires her to be fit so is sure to improve off her first up showing. Ljungberg really went on with the job after beating River Bird, bolting in on the Kenso before running consecutive placings behind Vegadaze. 11. England can only go forward off his Scone win but will need to as there wasn’t a great deal of substance to his win on the clock.

How to play it: River Bird EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

"This filly's price has halved already and it's easy to see why."@BradJGray has gone wide with his best bet at @rosehillgardens on Saturday with a filly currently $8.50 with @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/ml8PYCVgdX

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 30, 2019

7. No Doubt is just shy of 1000 days between wins but before you stop reading, stay with me for a minute. The six-year-old has been aggressively placed throughout his career (he ran sixth to Winx in the G1 Queen Elizabeth in 2017!), but after a string of misses his rating has dropped back down to 79. That sees him in with 55.5kg. He had no luck last time out when he looked to have plenty to offer. That was behind 1. Passage Of Time. Doubt he’d have troubled the winner but convinced he’d have been somewhere in the money. No Doubt meets Passage Of Time 4.5kg better for a four length defeat, which really should be about a length. No Doubt is yet to win at Rosehill but has yet to run badly at the track in five outings – they include a narrow third to Lanciato and a second in the G3 Doncaster Prelude behind Spectroscope. He might be looking for 1400m but the month between runs should negate that. He is versatile enough to roll forward to take advantage of a lack of speed. It’s a leap of faith tipping him but the way Anthony Cummings is going at the moment, a long overdue win isn’t out of the question.

Dangers: Passage Of Time is at his best over the genuine sprint trips, that much I’m convinced of. He certainly didn’t disgrace himself in a Group Three in Doomben last start out to 1350m but he is much more dynamic around 1200m as he displayed on the Kenso track second up. He’ll run well here but it’s whether he is still sharp enough back to this trip with 60.5kg. Looks the leader though, which aids his claim. 10. Oxford Tycoon had been on the sideline since August last year but thought he was entitled to win first up given the charmed run he had. Perhaps I’m being too harsh. He is a talented horse but looks far too short in the market as the favourite. 9. Poetic Charmer has run top two in nine of his 16 outings. 12. Kawakini has found a nice race here. Her fresh record is flattering (three wins at Nowra) but she has trialled sweetly.

How to play it: No Doubt WIN ($15 TAB Fixed Odds)

A luckless No Doubt behind Passage Of Time

9. Reelem In Ruby wasn’t done any favours by her stablemate (Jen Rules) at the top of the straight last start, which meant Tommy Berry had to balance her up before hitting the go button. In the meantime Strome had pinched runs inside of her and as it turned out, a winning break. There was plenty to like about the way this filly hit the line though, cutting into the margin to miss narrowly. The three-year-old should get another lovely trailing run in this race from the perfect draw. As we saw with her two runs prior, albeit in midweek company, Reelem In Ruby has returned in great order, and still has upside. The knock is the early price. She is very well found but does look hard to beat. Let’s just hope for a better odds.

Dangers: Punters Intelligence reveals that 15. Constellations matched motors with Reelem In Ruby last start over the final 400m. Perhaps she was flattered given Ruby was cuddled into the straight for so long but another win isn’t far away for this four-year-old. She gets in with 49kg again. The only option from the wide draw looks to push forward. 4. Pumpkin Pie ran fifth in the Dark Jewel with Savatiano and Organza since franking the form. 12. Reginae gets the blinkers on and hit the line in the Scone Guineas. She looked to respond well to a quieter ride. 11. Let Me Sleep On It’s effort in the Denise’s Joy was better than it reads and should relish 1400m. 2. Nicci’s Gold will be rushing home if the leaders overcook it. 8. Toryjoy is talented but still races too keenly to back with any confidence.

How to play it: Reelem In Ruby WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) and BOX QUINELLA 9,15,4

Reelem In Ruby just missing to Strome

It was a disaster from start to finish for 15. Red Currant at Rosehill a fortnight ago. The five-year-old was well supported to start $5 favourite but a stride into the race his chances were blown. He veered left out of the gates which squeezed him out and he was spat out the back. Then turning into the straight there was nowhere for Red Currant to go and he only saw daylight the last 300m. He did make an impression late though, with Punters Intelligence revealing his last 200m of 11.64s was only bettered by the first three home. He was eight weeks between runs there too, having won well at Newcastle before a freshen. Rachel King reunites with the horse having ridden him three times already (and twice in trials). In a similar race to the one he contested last start, he is worth another chance at double figure odds.

Dangers: 12. Kapajack was much better than he looked to the eye first up. Zonk got a very cheap time of it in front and it was impossible for anything to run her down. The three-year-old ran the second fastest last 600m (32.79s) across the entire day (bettered only by November Man in the 1000m race). He faces a different dilemma here in where he gets to from the very wide draw. He is talented enough to give this field a start and a beating but not willing to take $2.30 to find out. 8. Echo Jet found himself in an unfamiliar spot last start, back in the pack, and did a reasonable job to close off. Blinkers go on for the first time. 13. Dynamited showed a glimpse of something last time out doing his best work across the line.

How to play it: Red Currant WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Kapajack ($2.30)

Red Currant’s luckless run via the steward’s vision

5. Black On Gold put the writing on the wall in the Lord Mayor’s Cup last start. Punters Intelligence highlights that he was the only runner in the race to break 34s (33.87s) for his last 600m. The five-year-old has never raced over 2400m but gives the impression that it won’t be an issue. His run prior to that, when first up off a break, was better than the form guide suggests. He found the line late behind Archedemus, Tom Melbourne and Sixties Groove. The son of Sebring has clearly returned in good order and if he takes further improvement out of his last start effort into this, he looks hard to toss. Third up last time in he ran fourth in the G3 Summer Cup behind Fierce Impact with Life Less Ordinary in third. Should be able to settle a couple of pairs closer from the better draw. Tricky race though.

Dangers: 16. Free Fly Too has to take another step here in Listed company and he is poorly in at the weights, but he has won three of his past four. He is rock hard fit, makes his own luck and only has to hold his form to run well here. 6. Girl Tuesday missed by a whisker in the Lord Mayor’s to Grey Lion having rediscovered her mojo. She is also on trial over 2400m but her breeding says yes (Street Cry x Tuesday Joy). 13. Tamarack was brave to finish as close as he did in that same race having covered ground throughout. He was 1500m (where he beat So You Win) out to 2000m too. 7. Hush Writer resumes a gelding so could improve. Then there is last year’s winner 1. Destiny’s Kiss off an identical lead up. Can even make a case for 9. High Bridge with the blinkers doing the trick last start.

How to play it: Black On Gold WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)

Black On Gold in the Lord Mayor’s

12. Strome is in career best form at the moment and although she doesn’t need to improve on what she did last start to be in the finish again here, suspect she will go forward again fourth up out to 1500m. Robbie Dolan said after the four-year-old’s last start win that she is incredibly lazy and needs to be woken up constantly so it’s key that Dolan sticks being such a quirky mare. The leading apprentice was able to position her up midfield at Rosehill last time out which he should be able to repeat in this from the middle draw. Strome is up in grade and against the boys but the trade off is she drops to 53kg after the claim. There are no standouts in this big field so it’s ripe for an in form galloper to continue their winning ways, enter Strome.

Dangers: 4. Gresham isn’t a popular name with punters. However, there was merit to his first up effort behind Desert Lord. He missed the kick, got back in a sprint home and worked to the line up the fence. Despite his misgivings he is rarely far away and he looks well paired with aggressive rider Adam Hyeronimus. Looks over the odds, especially to fill a placing. 7. Dagny is a very capable mare on her day as evidenced by her first up run but can she repeat that? 15. Asterius charged late first up himself but does that fresh every campaign. There’s a good chance he flattens out now second up only out 100m in trip. 18. Island Missile also chased home Desert Lord first up and closed impressively. The draw does him no favours.

How to play it: Strome WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) and Gresham PLACE ($6 TAB)

Strome is a mare in fine form

14. Spiritual Pursuit is a flying machine and if she can spear across to the front she’ll take running down. We’ll know our fate early as this isn’t a race lacking early speed. This filly generally jumps on terms before mustering very quickly so the wide draw suits her in that regard. 13. Invictus Salute will be ridden with cover, so that helps the cause. This Jason Coyle-trained three-year-old was a revelation last campaign breaking her maiden at Wyong before bolting in at Canterbury. It was her third up effort that put her on the radar for most though, where she ran second at Rosehill splitting Baller and Prophet’s Thumb. She has looked strong in her two trial outings and given the improvement she showed from her first racing campaign to her second, confident she’ll go forward again this time in. Can pinch some black type.

Dangers: 2. Catesby is rarely far away and that was again the case first up when chasing home Zonk in a race she controlled from the front. He stays at 1100m but the four weeks between runs should see him fresh enough. Has options from the perfect draw. 1. Drachefels had four starts for Bjorn Baker last campaign and although he didn’t win any of them, he showed enough to suggest he’d knock off another benchmark race sooner rather than later. Liked the way he trialled and could be suited by the speed in this. Drachefels’ new stablemate 7. Oneness stays at 1100m but can only come on from his first up second to Akasaki at Scone. That has him in the mix.

How to play it: Spiritual Pursuit WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)

Spiritual Pursuit being run down by Baller

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting