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By Brad Gray

8. Two Up will be strong at the end of 1200m, maps to camp just off the speed and comes back a peg from what he raced last start at Canterbury when third behind Samoot. It’s an appealing set up for the David Atkins-trained gelding. He has been an extremely consistent sprinter for some time now. Two runs ago he ran sixth at Canterbury but a midrace move saw him finish midfield. He did a good job not to be beaten further. Then a couple of weeks ago he parked in fifth an had his chance but found Kris Lees’ import too classy with Ita pinching second off Two Up on the line. Overlord finished fourth with 5. Lord Zoulander fading to finish fifth. That was on a track rated a heavy 9. The five-year-old has relished soft and heavy tracks throughout his career so that won’t see him beaten here.

Dangers: 4. Dalaalaat looks beautifully placed here first up, and he won a Midway fresh last preparation over 1200m, but he maps to be giving away a big head start from the draw. This is his kick off point ahead of a Provincial-Midway Championships tilt. 11. Bob’s Your Uncle faces a similarly problematic draw but he has more talent than his winning strike rate suggests.

How To Play It: Two Up WIN

2. She’s Extreme took a couple of hundred metres to find her feet in the Heavy 10 conditions in the Sweet Embrace a fortnight ago but really powered to the line the last 200m. That was just her second career start having run an eye-catching, and luckless, fourth in a Kensington maiden on debut. A hot maiden that has subsequently produced the Reisling quinella in Seven Veils and Dashing Legend. Her dam won out to 2000m so it’s no surprise to see her so strong at the end of the sprint trips. Wouldn’t be surprised if she was ridden more aggressively now third up with a place in the Golden Slipper on the line. With likely leader 8. Winnertakesitall drawn a couple to the inside, Tommy Berry could take that cart across.

Dangers: 10. Swift Sweet ran fifth at Canterbury first up but it was an enormous effort from this Mark Newnham-trained filly to get as close as she did at the finish. She drifted out the back and had to check off heels half way down the short straight before picking herself up to rocket home. 5. Magic Carpet beat her home there and James Cummings shoots for four straight Magic Night winners. The advantage Magic Carpet has is the inside draw whereas Swift Sweet looks set to give away another big head start. 8. Winnertakesitall will give a sight in front given the lack of obvious pressure while 7. Atoine, 11. Yankee Hussel and 13. Seiryu could all measure up.

How To Play It: She’s Extreme WIN

Nobody missed the debut of 3. Magic in the Silver Slipper Stakes behind Best Of Bordeaux. The colt really flattened out late to charge into second place, clocking a last 600m split of 34.19s, which was three lengths faster than the next best in the race. His last 200m section of 11.60 was alone 2.5 lengths quicker than the second quickest. A glance at his pedigree will tell you he’s out of brilliant staying Kiwi mare Rising Romance so it’s little surprise that the best part of his race over 1100m was his close. It’ll just come down to where Willy Pike can position him in the run. The low draw gives him the chance to be a couple of pairs closer out to 1200m and if he reproduces a similar finish, it’s hard to see any of his rivals matching him late. The Hawkes stable won this race 10 years ago with All Too Hard before skipping the Golden Slipper, opting to go straight to the Sires.

Dangers: 1. Sweet Ride showed his versatility at Canberra last start in the Black Opal Preview, taking a sit. Once he pushed into the clear the race was over. He gave his rivals a touch up. Has to stretch his speed to 1200m now and there’s more depth in this. 2. Rise Of The Masses is another on pace runner that boxed on well out to 1200m on a heavy track in the Skyline. 9. Peace Officer worked home okay in that same race, just getting too far out of his ground. 5. Williamsburg was strong on the clock when winning at Newcastle last start. The knock is the draw and coming back in trip.

How To Play It: Magic WIN

This race looks a near identical set up to the Liverpool City Cup for 1. Ellsberg. Another heavy track, another race where he maps to get complete control. We do swap Randwick for Rosehill and 1300m for 1500m but the four-year-old has historically been even better on his home track (6:3-2-0) and he is 4:2-1-0 over this trip. The failure was a seventh in the Golden Eagle as a $5.50 chance. Ellsberg rises from 57.5kg to 59kg but doubt that stops him. Tim Clark has ridden Ellsberg seven times for three wins and three seconds. The only possible knock on the odds on favourite, a price which looks justified, is that his second up form has tapered off in the past compared to his fresh form. This race will top him off perfectly for the Doncaster over The Championships.

Dangers: 2. Brutality is much better suited out to 1500m but he has three lengths to make up on Ellsberg. He’ll close that margin but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where there is enough tempo for Brutality to turn the tables. He needed a strongly run Villiers to beat Ellsberg last preparation and even then it was only narrowly. 6. Blue Soldier comes through that same race and will likely settle down second. 3. Just Folk wasn’t disgraced in Group One company in Melbourne last start and is very comfortable on wet ground, hence why he is here, while 5. Kiku and 7. Wairere Falls are both capable on their day.

How To Play It: Ellsberg WIN

2. Rule Of Law chases six wins in a row! All in city class. It’s been well documented what this sprinter has become since being gelded and trained by Bjorn Baker, but every time the bar has been raised, he jumps it. The four-year-old transitions into Group racing for the first time having won a BM94 last start but he’s still entitled to be a very firm favourite. Doesn’t have to lead, if 6. Spaceboy, wants to go right on with it to take up the running, as we’ve seen in his last couple of wins where he has proven to be equally explosive. He has been up since December but we can only judge him on what we’ve seen on the track and he has shown no signs of training off. The box he does have to tick here, however, is the heavy track. First up at Warwick Farm, he won on a Soft 7, however.

Dangers: Can 9. Shelby Sixtysix repeat what he did last Saturday behind Eduardo? If he does, he’ll win. It’s impossible to be confident that he’ll ever reach those heights again, let alone at his very next start. This will be the fourth week in a row he backs up so there won’t be a fitter horse here, that much we can be confident of. 10. Gravina also returned a gelding this time back and sprinted to an impressive win over 1200m. Has found 1100m a touch sharp in the past but the light weight and middle draw could negate that. Some of 4. Dream Circle’s best runs have been over the Rosehill 1100m on wet tracks. He was 1550m back to 1100m in January and finished alongside Belluci Babe so coming back from 1400m this time won’t bother him. 3. Prime Star looks well placed 1kg above the minimum.

How To Play It: Rule Of Law WIN

It’s well known that Chris Waller has completely owned this race recently, winning six of the past seven, and with some of the best fillies we’ve seen in recent years. Enter 11. Fangirl. The daughter of Sebring has emerged as the stable’s top seeded filly over the autumn having beaten Espiona in the Light Fingers before the wide gate cost her any chance in the G1 Surround Stakes. The best win of her career to date was a demolition of her rivals out to the mile at the backend of the spring so as she creeps out to that trip again this carnival, she’ll only get stronger. Her best performances have been on good tracks, however, which is a little knock as she lines up on another heavy surface, but she looked to get through it well enough two weeks ago.

Dangers: Fangirl’s stablemate 12. Roots was unlucky behind Fangirl in the Reginald Allen last preparation. She resumed with a brilliant win over an unsuitable 1200m, albeit in midweek company at Warwick Farm. A run of washed out meetings and wide draws sees her 4.5 weeks between runs. 14. Sanstoc is a very progressive filly in the right hands with Mark Newnham.

How To Play It: Fangirl WIN

5. Stockman ran last two weeks ago but it was in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes at weight for age. His 400-200m split was the fourth quickest in the race before his condition gave out, and the class of his rivals kicked in. The stayer was seven weeks between runs and that run on a heavy track will top him off for 2000m second up on another heavy track. The last time he raced on a heavy track at Rosehill was back in November over 1500m in the Festival Stakes and he charged home into second behind Ellsberg. The five-year-old loves wet tracks with his heavy track stats now reading 6:3-2-0. He has raced well at this track in the past too. There are a lot of backmarkers engaged here so it should present Sam Clipperton with the chance to settle down midfield.

Dangers: 4. Sky Lab is another that’ll relish the wet track, just as he did first up when winning over 1500m, beating Dream Circle. He gets quickly out to 2000m. Has a second to Think It Over in the Craven Plate over this trip to his name and a Group One second to Mo’unga in the Rosehill Guineas. 1. Great House looks well treated under the weight scale given he lumped 59kg first up when fourth in the Parramatta Cup. 2. Spirit Ridge has just been touched off first up over 2000m in his last two preparations. One of those was in this very race 12 months ago with Toffee Tongue grabbing him late. The knock is the heavy track first up. 3. Mount Popa has been out of sorts lately but his best just about wins this.

How To Play It: Stockman WIN

4. Lighthouse has run in two weight for age Group Ones at her last two starts, and finished second in both. Coming back to a handicap now, against her own sex, is an appealing set up. As is the seven day back up. We saw how effective the quick turnaround on a heavy track was for her Canterbury Stakes conqueror Forbidden Love last week, and for Shelby Sixtysix behind Eduardo. The five-year-old grey doesn’t look too badly treated with 56kg either. In the last five runnings of this race, the lightest weighted winner has been 55kg. The classy mares have been winning despite giving away weight to the three-year-olds and lesser performed types. We know Lighthouse handles the ground and the other huge positive is how she maps. Have got her camped one out one back and all she has to do from there is repeat what she did last Saturday.

Dangers: 6. Expat has won seven of her 10 starts on soft and heavy ground. She is chasing three straight wins having won a deep Millie Fox three weeks ago in which two impressive subsequent winner Belluci Babe and Le Lude have emerged. Maps to find the front. The last filly to win this race was back in 2009 and there is a little knock on how well 15. Espiona has returned. The bar was set high, however. The 50kg for a filly of her class obviously has appeal. Short enough though. 12. Promise Of Success sets up beautifully dropping in weight third up on a wet track. Is likely to settle out the back though. It's worth noting that the shortest priced winner in last seven runnings of this race is $13. That in mind, the best roughies are 7. Wandabaa and the defending champ 1. Krone.

How To Play It: Lighthouse WIN.

11. Taksu chased home Gravina first up at Randwick, ploughing through the heavy conditions. He comfortably beat the rest of the field on that occasion and sets up nicely now out to 1300m second up on another wet track carrying another very light weight after the claim of Tyler Schiller who rode the six-year-old two weeks ago. Taksu carried 51.5kg there and only has 52kg here. The other huge advantage this former Victorian-trained gelding has is the lack of speed in the race, at least on paper. That should see Schiller assume control from the front. He did travel a touch keenly last preparation when leading, or sitting outside of the leader, but if he settles, his rivals will be doing well to chase him down.

Dangers: We’ve been waiting a while for 14. Sindacato to step out for Chris Waller. He’s been scratched a couple of times, has had meetings cancelled due to the weather, but there’s every chance it’ll be worth the wait. The former Kiwi is a lightly-raced six-year-old not short on talent. It was back on February 10 now, but his Rosehill trial was a beauty. 13. Astero has the advantage of recent racing. He was flushed wide at Newcastle last start when second to Rustic Steel. Can settle closer from the low draw and has a great record on heavy tracks. 4. Poetic Charmer continues to race well while 9. Ma And Pa has built an imposing record, working quickly through the grades.

How To Play It: Taksu WIN

16. Forever You is a staying mare with it all still in front of her. She leaps into Saturday class on the back of a Class 1 win at Newcastle at set weights where she was a $1.20 favourite but she won in the style of a galloper that warrants a crack in town now. That was five weeks ago, and over 2350m, but she was just as dominant the start prior at Kembla Grange over 2000m. The lightly-raced four-year-old, with just four starts to her name, drops to 52kg in BM78 company. Jay Ford should be able to park her midfield from the middle draw before letting her work through her gears. She does take a couple of strides to get going so the barrier looks ideal and with 2. Canasta and 12. Zoumon ensuring a genuine tempo up front, she’ll get her chance to make an immediate impression in this grade.

Dangers: Had a huge query over 2. Canasta on a heavy track last start over 2000m but he exceeded expectations. He ran fifth to Surefire but was only collared the last 50m. He needs the fence to be okay, so monitor that throughout the meeting. Derby-bound three-year-old 12. Zoumon won with authority out to 1900m at Canterbury last start. 14. Benaud meets him 2.5kg better and is suited on a bigger track but he wasn’t making much ground on Zoumon late. 3. Silent Agenda beat Canasta two back before racing too keenly at Canberra last start. Forgive him that. 5. Rousseau brings recent form that measures up here but is faced with a problematic draw.

How To Play It: Forever You WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting