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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Sunday.

The rail is out 6m from the 900m to the winning post and 4m the remainder. The form has been done for a Good track.

3. Hard To Say powered to the line at Eagle Farm last start, dropping back to 1000m. That was behind the unbeaten even money favourite Palazzo Spirit. Hard To Say was slightly held up in the straight too. Forget Hard To Say’s sixth prior to that. He found cover in a three-wide running line but also found himself in the worst part of the Rosehill track. If you weren’t pinned to the fence, you simply couldn’t win at that meeting. On debut, the Exceed And Excel colt, trained by Jason Deamer, ran home into fourth behind Sejardan in the Breeders Plate. Back out to 1100m looks to suit now, draws to park forward of midfield and shouldn’t be left with any excuses in what looks to be a very winnable two-year-old race, at least on paper.

Dangers: Gary Portelli has had 11 two-year-old starters this season for four winners. 12. Snitcat will be out to add to that tally. The Snitzel filly had no luck on debut in the Gimcrack behind boom juvenile Coolangatta before boxing on into third in the Kirkham and then producing a similar finish in the Golden Gift. 9. Shalailed comes out of a Warwick Farm midweeker but he finished ahead of subsequent Saturday winner Fireburn. 7. Narnia has shown enough in his two trials to suggest he has got ability. Waywardness cost 1. Command Approval winning the Wyong Magic Millions, with 10. Wealthy Investor also coming through that form line. 11. Russian Conquest covered ground when winning the Max Lees Classic. Respect the early money for Hawkes first starter 18. Mills.

How to play it: Hard To Say WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Hard To Say’s debut in the Breeders’ Plate

No excuses now for 5. Casino Lord. The four-year-old sprinter has been a sectional star at his last two starts, with wide draws proving costly on both occasions. Back in mid-October on TAB Everest day he clocked the fastest closing splits of the meeting when seventh behind Ten Bells. That race has subsequently provided another two Highway winners. The Cody Morgan-trained gelding was then unsighted for eight weeks yet he picked up where he left off, running third behind 9. London Gal a fortnight ago. He hasn’t got any gate speed so wouldn’t expect him to settle in the first dozen now he has finally drawn a gate but if Hugh Bowman, who rode him last start, can be just worse than midfield, he’ll get his chance.

Dangers: London Gal was the only leader to win all day across that Randwick meeting. It was a tenacious win, particularly paired with the fact that she didn’t get much peace in front either. Not sure where she finds herself from the wide draw this time though. 1. Midsummer Rain is the sleeper. Her last two runs have been on heavy tracks and she hasn’t looked at all comfortable. The lightly-raced five-year-old was 38 weeks between runs when seventh behind London Gal too. Tom Sherry is tasked with weaving a path for 3. Anethole late. If he finds daylight, few here will be finishing harder. 6. Tags has come a long way in a short period of time and wasn’t far away in a 1500m Highway last campaign. 19. Miss Ostend finds herself fifth emergency.

How to play it: Casino Lord WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Casino Lord last start at Randwick

2. Criminal Code was flying last preparation, without much to show for his good form as far as wins go. The five-year-old was hard in the market all the way through the spring too. He ran second to Laure Me In at Kembla and then again ran second in the Wyong Cup a couple of starts later, behind Berdibek. He really attacked the line first up last campaign, over 1300m behind Dream Circle, clocking a 33.30s last 600m and a last 200m (11.26s) that was just a tick outside of the quickest across the entire meeting. Significantly, he kicks off over the mile this time back. Like the way he coasted to the line in a recent Rosehill trial too. The biggest query is the lack of speed in the race and the fact he is going to settle last but he’ll only be spotting the leaders a couple of lengths given the small field.

Dangers: 5. Wheelhouse didn’t fire a shot last start at Kembla Grange when much more was expected of him. Perhaps his second up run at Hawkesbury on a heavy track when 1200m straight out to the mile flattened him. That would also explain why Chris Waller hasn’t produced Wheelhouse at the races for five weeks since. Can we trust 4. Kirwan’s Lane to reproduce the performance that saw him beat Ellsberg last preparation? Not at the early price. That said, there is a lot in his favour – the map, distance, track and a drop back in grade from the G2 Villiers. 6. Dynamic Impact settled a long last at Randwick last start and was never in the hunt. Up in grade and down in weight now out to the mile. 7. Five Kingdom can only run well from in front.

How to play it: Criminal Code WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Criminal Code first up last preparation

Taking a punt on 6. Legend Has It. The five-year-old has admittedly been an enigma in his 10 start career with a huge gap between his worst and best but at the early price, he profiles as being worth an each way ticket. He is a stayer that takes a while to click through his gears when asked to quicken so out to 2000m he starting to get to a trip he can win over. Liked the way he poked home up the fence very late behind Born A King and Francesco Gaurdi first up over 1500m at Rosehill before he didn’t get much room out to 1800m on the Kensington track. Despite that, only the quinella had quicker closing splits in what turned into a 400m dash home. That didn’t suit Legend Has It so there was extra merit to his sixth.

Dangers: Can we trust 1. Pecuniary Interest to back up what he did first up? Majella franking the form on Wednesday certainly suggests that we can. The win even surprised John Sargent with the trainer stating post race that this 2000m Midway was always the immediate target. 7. Spaltet is the stayer with all of the upside with just four starts to his name. Should relish 2000m. Just maps to be last. That said, this race sets up to be genuinely run which could be problematic for the likes of 2. Made By Khan and 5. Sepulchre from wide draws and speed drawn underneath them. 3. Rebel Rama can’t be discounted while 11. Al Sahara should get the perfect drop.

How to play it: Legend Has It EACH WAY ($23 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Legend Has It last start over 1800m

10. Niffler is unbeaten in three starts and still has a stack more upside than any of her rivals. The four-year-old mare clocked particularly strong late splits at Wyong first up which flagged her as a likely type to roll through the grades, particularly as she crept out in trip. The Tavistock mare was then backed as if unbeatable at the Warwick Farm midweeks, jumping $1.75, and although the margin was only half a length at the finish, the race shape didn’t allow for big margins. It turned into a 400m sprint home and Hugh Bowman was very kind to her over the concluding stages. It was easy to get the impression that she still had much more there if required. Like the progression out to 1800m now third up, she draws perfectly and should relish the long Randwick straight.

Dangers: 1. Zegalo split Lightning Jack, one of the Summer Cup favourites, and Lackeen last start in a mile race that stacked up well against the Villiers Stakes on the same day. Out to 1800m appeals third up, as does the low draw enabling Tyler Schiller to lob into the first half without doing any early work. One paced mare 13. Always On Show may have been flattered by getting within a length of Niffler last start but she rarely runs poorly and also maps to get in run favours. 7. Rousseau lacks a turn of foot but he’ll be strong through the line. Have mapped Jason Collett to be positive from the draw. Rousseau first will need to turn the tables on 9. Peekays Legacy.8. Dhakuri, 6. Oulandos and 3. Greek Hero are in the mix too.

How to play it: Niffler WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Niffler winning at Warwick Farm

8. Lady Of Luxury continues to race well. This will be her eighth run of the preparation but she is giving Bjorn Baker no reason to turn her out. Back in August she won her maiden at Wyong and hasn’t finished outside of the top four since. Even that last start fourth had merit too. She was never going to beat the flying Bacchanalia but her closing splits were among the quickest across the meeting. The drop back from 1250m to 1100m saw her find a couple of rivals too sharp. The talented Dragonstone ran second. The form around her all campaign has subsequently been franked. On Saturday she is back out to 1200m, drops back to her own sex and drawn barrier 1, will slide forward to trail what should be a genuine speed.

Dangers: 3. I Say Hello is an interesting runner for Kris Lees and Coolmore. She resumes in foal and although her two runs last preparation were below par, at the same time, they were a touch inconclusive. The form from earlier in her career is very good, and like the way she trucked through the line in a recent Wyong trial. Forget 1. Selburose ever ran last start. She missed the kick and was then found to be lame. She’s a fast mare best ridden for speed but she’ll have company up front in the way of 7. Lady Banff and 10. Miss Baltimore, just to name two. Loved 2. Steel Diamond’s work after the line in a recent Rosehill trial suggesting she has returned well.

How to play it: Lady Of Luxury EACH WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Lady Of Luxury last start at Randwick

8. Fun Fact’s record is 45 starts for seven wins and 10 placings. In the races where he was led, his record reads 17 starts four wins and six placings. The moral of the story is that this grey does his best work when allowed to roll along out in front. Only once in his last eight runs has he led and it was by far the best of his recent performances, when third behind Entente in the G3 Colin Stephen Quality. The six-year-old’s benchmark rating is starts to slip down too, which sees him carry 55kg. He returned off a freshen in the G2 Villiers a fortnight ago but after being outsped in the early stages, settled down in the second half pinned away on the fence and he never say daylight. It was a hidden 12th, with Fun Fact going to the line with more to offer. Maps to lead this which makes him dangerous at each way odds.

Dangers: 1. Polly Grey relished the Heavy conditions at Rosehill last start to put her rivals away. She carried 59kg on that occasion. The obvious knock is that her record on good tracks (12:0-1-2) is clearly inferior to that of her wet track credentials (23: 10-4-2). Have mapped her to stalk to the two leaders in Fun Fact and 11. Skymax. It’s a similar case for 3. Stockman, with his only win on a good track a 1300m Goulburn maiden. He has run okay on good tracks since but it’s a stretch to suggest he’ll run up to his last two starts. Albeit, his fast finishing Villiers fourth, where he clocked the fastest closing splits all meeting, was on a Soft 5. He hit the line with 7. Criaderas, who is on trial at 2000m. 9. Lightning Jack won well on his Australian debut.

How to play it: Fun Fact EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Fun Fact in the Villiers two weeks ago

9. Super Effort has a record of 5:2-2-0 since being transferred to Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou. He gave his BM64 rivals a touch up first up over 1200m last preparation before running a luckless second behind Fastconi over this same track and trip. That good form continued until he produced a flat run fifth up which saw the four-year-old tipped out for a spell. Jay Ford was in the saddle for three of those five runs, winning once and running second the other two, and he jumps back on here having also recently trialled Super Effort at Rosehill. There was a lot to like about how the son of Reward For Effort coasted to the line. The stable are very dangerous with first uppers and he maps to camp just off midfield, getting his chance at each way odds in an open race.

Dangers: It was impossible to miss the slashing second 7. Tamerlane produced first up from a spell. He went back to last from the wide draw before running 5. El Buena to 0.2 of a length, beating home Queen Bellissimo. The race was run to suit so he was flattered and he again draws the extreme outside. Hugh Bowman gets a cart across from 11. Nictock if he wants it but Tamerlane hasn’t been as explosive in the past when ridden forward. The early market is placing a lot of faith in that Rosehill BM74 with even the sixth placed 4. Ranges well found. It’s a race ripe for the picking for a blowout. 3. Impasse zipped home to win well first up last preparation before failing to recapture that. Can make small cases for 8. Loveplanet, 13. Kennedy Choice and 1. Animate too.

How to play it: Super Effort WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Super Effort’s recent Rosehill trial

The only missing piece for 5. Snippy Fox is a wet track. It would make her near unbeatable in this. She won first up for the first time in her career at Canterbury in last November which teased that she had returned better than ever. Her second up win confirmed that much, where she blew her rivals away at Randwick over 1200m. Despite being one of the first horses under pressure turning for home, the five-year-old kept building through her gears before doing her best work the last 200m. Her 11.73s close was comfortably the quickest in the race. The overall time of the race stacked up well against the Listed Razor Sharp on the same day too. There was as much substance to the win on the clock as it looked to the eye. Maps to put herself in the first couple once more.

Dangers: 6. Blesk is flying. He took late ground off Brookspire last start while prior to that Zoushack got away with too easy a time in front yet there he was still zooming home into second. His pattern, and barrier, dictates that he’ll be out the back again. Perhaps he is looking for a mile now too? Blinkers going back on may negate that. 2. Holyfield looks the likely leader and should be at his top now. Comes through the same race at Blesk last start, as does 15. Nitride who shouldn’t be completely overlooked in this at bolter’s odds. It’s impossible to get a line on lightly-raced import 3. Southern Lights. Big market watch on the four-year-old.

How to play it: Snippy Fox WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Snippy Fox winning well last start

2. Waihaha Falls was given a beautiful ride by Hugh Bowman last start at Rosehill to beat subsequent winner Francesco Guardi. It proved the difference in the end. Given Bowman’s opinion of this four-year-old gelding it’s no surprise to see the champion hoop stick. The son of Sacred Falls rises 2kg at the weights for his last start victory but stays in the same grade and maps to get all of the favours in the run once more. Creeps out to the mile now having won over 1500m last start, which looks ideal. There are a lot of lightly-raced gallopers among his rivals which opens up the prospect of sharp improvements but on what they’ve all done to date, it’s hard not to forecast Waihaha Falls being somewhere in the finish again.

Dangers: 4. Casino Kid comes through that same race and clocked a last 600m a length and a half faster than Waihaha Falls. He can turn the tables but will need a peach from Ashley Morgan as don’t love the inside draw for a get-back style of horse. 5. Nothingsweetaboutme will be up the front making her own luck and was an all-the-ay winner at Rosehill last start. 12. Pentacost put near three lengths on his rivals in a Newcastle maiden on debut. The two placegetters have both subsequently run ninth, however. One of those at Orange. 21. Otyrar was strong late behind Solar Apex at his first run in Australia. Will be better again at 2000m. 11. Remus and 15. Rejoiced are in the mix too.

How to play it: Waihaha Falls WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Waihaha Falls winning at Rosehill last start

All the fields, form and replays for Randwick on Sunday