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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.

The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a Good track.

There’s an obvious lack of pressure which should see 2. Discharged get complete control. The four-year-old has won his last two and done so with sustained speed, it’s not like he has been gifted the front. With Nash Rawiller bossing this race from up top, it’s hard to make a case for anything that finished behind him last start, and there are five of them here, to turn the tables. The son of Snitzel jumps 3kg but has never raced better. Looking at his last strength last start, over the same track and trip a fortnight ago, only three horses clocked a faster last 200m split. Yet there he was rolling along, there to be beaten late, but charging through the line. Don’t think this horse would have been disgraced in the Epsom. There aren’t too many other ways to turn in this race.

Dangers: The last time 11. Betcha Flying won, it was from outside of the lead. Don’t think she can win from last in this. Perhaps the button is pushed from the wide draw? The big thing in 4. Matowi’s favour here, to at least finish closer to Discharged, is the better draw. He is often cruised for not putting races away but he only has a short sprint. Punters Intelligence shows his 400-200 behind Discharged last start was 1.5L quicker than anything else in the race. Tommy Berry just had to use that dash at the 350m from the wide draw, instead of the 200m.  Another win isn’t far away for 5. Opacity but he is racing like he wants 2000m. Suspect Kubrick is going better than his form suggests, he has just found himself in two very slowly run races.

How to play it: Discharged WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

"He maps to get complete control and looks well placed to bring up three straight wins."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray is with a flying Waterhouse and Bott-trained miler in the opener at @royalrandwick on Epsom Day @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/U61RQu2DH8

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 1, 2020

You don’t need me to tell you that 4. Enthaar has been the standout trialler of the two-year-olds to date. The Written Tycoon filly trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace recorded the fastest time of the set of trials on the Kensington track clocking 50s flat, faster than the open heat won by Libertini with Wild Ruler in second (50.13s). The most impressive past was that James McDonald barely moved on her either. He gave her a little shake up at the 100m to put a widening 4.8 lengths on her rivals. Her action, her manners, her acceleration, it was all there on show. No surprise that McDonald sticks and if the Emirates Park homebred can bring her trial form to race day, who is to say she can’t replicate the deeds of Estijaab and Mossfun.

Dangers: 12. Total Babe was very professional in her trial win. The daughter of I Am Invincible jumped fast, settled and was there for Tommy Berry when he gave her a click, winning her heat eased down. The time was good for the morning too (50.11s, albeit over 845m and not 850m). Expect her to park outside of the leader, which looks likely to be 2. Avaricious from barrier 3 and off what this speedy Extreme Choice filly did in her trial win. She jumped from the outside gate yet easily crossing her rivals. She looks the genuine 1000m jump and run type in this field and given she will probably find the rail in this, it’s a big advantage, as we saw with last year’s all-the-way winner Every Rose.

How to play it: Enthaar WIN ($1.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Enthaar trialling brilliantly at Randwick

In the past three years Chris Waller has had three runners in the Breeders’ Plate for two impressive winners (Global Quest and Performer) and a third (Krameric). 12. Shaquero runs for the Waller yard here and there’s plenty in his favour. The son of Irish stallion Shalaa has drawn to get the run of the race and has the services of leading hoop James McDonald. The colt trialled in Queensland at the Gold Coast and after jumping quickly, sat outside of the lead and won with gears still up his sleeve. It was an encouraging first outing. Unlike most of the field here, having trialled across the same meetings, we can’t get a line on his overall time but that might be a little edge for punters. The Breeder’s certainly doesn’t look as clear cut as the Gimcrack.

Dangers: 6. Kalashnikov was the pick of the two-year-old colts that trialled in Sydney. The Capitalist youngster was quick into stride before responding to the urgings of Hugh Bowman to put five lengths on his rivals. You can’t do much more than that. Has drawn a touch wide but his gate speed may be able to negate that. Snowden-trained stablemate 4. Construct was dragged back to last in his trial hitout but liked how he attacked the line late to run second. Won’t be giving away that same start from a low draw in this. 11. Retrieval took a narrow gap, sprinting sharply to win his heat. The brother to Multaja didn’t show a heap of early speed and drawn widest here, expect him to be hitting the line.

How to play it: Shaquero WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

10. Just Thinkin’ maps to get complete control over 2000m for Tim Clark, which makes him a dangerous adversary to his better credentialed rivals. He is racing out of his grade at weight for age against several Group One winners but respect the placement of the Waterhouse and Bott yard. They had the chance to run in the Epsom, but decided to run here instead. The four-year-old was a tough winner second up at Randwick second up before running right through the line in the G3 Cameron. With Miss Fabulass set a brutal tempo and it ripped Just Thinkin’ out of his comfort zone. He was beaten for speed turning for home but love the way he picked himself up to motor home. He’ll run top three.

Dangers: 1. Fierce Impact beat subsequent Underwood winner Russian Camelot last start when winning the G1 Makybe Diva at Flemington. The seven-year-old is now a three-time Group One winner and has placed in a further three. Has won over the Randwick 2000m in the past and his tickover trial since last start was a beauty. He has beaten home 2. Kolding the last two times they’ve met. Kolding bounced back to form in the G1 George Main Stakes last start having landed outside of the leader. Unproven at 2000m. Not sure what to make of 3. Avilius. His first up run was outstanding before looming in the George Main but failing to finish off. His 400-200 was the quickest in the race, yet his last 200m was the second slowest. Blinkers go on for the first time.

How to play it: Just Thinkin’ WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Just Thinkin’ in the Cameron last start

There has been half a length between 1. Dame Giselle and 2. Hungry Heart in their two previous meetings and the way this race maps, it’s advantage Dame Giselle as she chases a rare clean sweep of the Princess Series. What she has that Hungry Heart doesn’t is acceleration. The daughter of I Am Invincible sat wide the trip in the Furious yet sprinted quickly before Hungry Heart could get warm. It was the same in the Tea Rose out to 1400m. The only impression Hungry Heart made was in the last 50m but Dame Giselle had already established a winning margin. 3. Vangelic is the leader here which likely sees Tommy Berry hand up on Dame Giselle and sit on her shoulder. Can’t see how they’ll run along. In fact, expect it to be a sprint home which plays right into the hands of Dame Giselle.

Dangers: This has been Hungry Heart’s grand final all preparation and the daughter of Frankel should relish the mile. She gets her chance to turn the tables over this trip but the shape of this race is the concern. James McDonald will play to his strengths though, so expect him to angle for the one-out-one-back spot giving Hungry Heart plenty of clear air to click through her gears. If she is dictated to at any stage, it’s likely to be game over. Vangelic will give check from in front, getting it all her own way in front so she goes in for third ahead of the closers 4. Montefilia, who can only improve off her Tea Rose run given she was six weeks between runs, and 6. Miravalle, a filly that might be looking for 2000m.

How to play it: Dame Giselle WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

The Tea Rose Stakes a fortnight ago

This is an ideal set up for 1. Nature Strip. Unlike The Shorts first up, there’s no Ball Of Muscle here and James McDonald should be able to roll to the front, let Nature Strip build up his revs before putting these away. It’s all about the six-year-old finding his rhythm. If he is allowed to control the shape of a race, there is no horse in the country that can beat him over 1200m. He has proven that in the past, most recently the TJ Smith Stakes over this same track and trip. He is a control freak. The only niggle is the way he has been carrying on in his two most recent trials. The first of these he of course dumped his jockey, which can happen, but more concerning was that he looked to dip again soon after the start in his Rosehill trial on Monday. Didn’t he truck through the line though! If he behaves, he wins.

Dangers: 2. Classique Legend was brilliant in winning The Shorts. The grey had to check off the heels of 4. Standout to find clear air but once out he picked up his rivals quickly. Punters Intelligence shows his last 600m of 33.06s was the quickest in the race but it was his 11.23s last 200m that stands out, two lengths faster than the next best. The draw looks awkward on paper but could find himself one-out-one-back. Standout loomed to figure in the finish first up but peaked. He’ll improve, but will need to. 8. Libertini has been trialling like she did as an early three-year-old. If the ‘Silver Shadow version’ rolls into Randwick on Saturday, she’s in business as far as an Everest slot goes. All of 7. Fasika’s best form is at Randwick.

How to play it: Nature Strip WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Nature Strip trialling at Rosehill

Have elevated 12. Funstar to top pick after the scratching of Just Thinkin’. There is not a lot of speed on paper which opens the door for Glen Boss to fire Funstar out from the wide draw to either lead or sit outside the lead. Think Brutal in the Doncaster. The last two wins from the daughter of Adelaide have been from in front (Phar Lap and Flights Stakes). Bossy has won four Epsoms and seven Doncasters so no-one knows the Randwick mile better. Chris Waller has won four of the past seven runnings of the Epsom. It’s a lethal pairing given their history. Funstar drops down to 52.5kg and recent history suggests there’s no disadvantage drawing wide with nine of the past 12 Epsom winners jumping from double figure gates. Four year olds have an exceptional record in this race (18 of the past 30) too but countering that is that not many mares win this mile feature.

Dangers: 11. Probabeel overcame a slow tempo in the Bill Ritchie to put her rivals away. It was a 600m sprint home and the margin was flattering to the rest of the field. Although not blessed with early speed, Kerrin McEvoy could come out positive with the intention of getting a trial behind Funstar. Suspect her race will be won/lost in the first 200m. 3. Star Of The Seas has undeniable claims having been nosed out at Group One WFA level in his two runs back. That’s compelling dropping back to a handicap. Will just need some luck from barrier 1. Doncaster winner 5. Nettoyer was better than the form suggests first up and she is more dynamic when getting to the outside. Has won four from 10 over the Randwick mile. 2. Mister Sea Wolf was brave when winning the Chelmsford, chasing a fast speed. Maps well in this, as does 9. Wild Planet.

How to play it: Funstar WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Funstar last start in the Theo Marks

12. Rondinella has been ticking over beautifully in her lead ups ahead of this target race, steadily improving each time out. The latest of those runs was in the Kingston Town Classic, a race that has provided three of the past four winners of The Metrop. She ran fifth, with Punters Intelligence revealing that she clocked the fastest last 200m sectional in the race. In her two runs prior to that her last 200m sections ranked second but her last 600m splits ranked first. Long story short, she has been hitting the line sweetly all preparation and sets up perfectly out to 2400m fourth up. Curiously, we’ve only ever seen the daughter of Ocean Park over this trip once in the past, when trained by Roger James, which was in the 2019 Tancred Stakes. She finished third to Avilius on a heavy track at WFA after taking off early, her run was enormous.

Dangers: 2. Mugatoo is the nominal favourite being the winner of eight from 14 and three from three this time back. The manner in which he dashed clear late to win the Newcastle Cup last start put to bed any thoughts that he was vulnerable at the trip. Only two horses in the past 50 years have carried more than 57kg to win this race, though. 9. Hush Writer and 15. Paths Of Glory come through that same form line and will appreciate getting back onto a good track. They can both win this. So can 18. Zebrowski. Could have attacked the line a touch better last start from the perfect spot but maps to find himself in a similar position in this. As far as smokies, surely Sydney Cup winner 6. Etah James isn’t a $51 chance? Wary of 8. Brimham Rocks while 16. Girl Tuesday and 20. Attention Run are place chances.

How to play it: Rondinella EACH WAY ($17 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Here's a sleeper in The Metrop!

📹@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to make a case for this John O'Shea-trained mare coming through the Kingston Town Stakes @tabcomau @royalrandwick pic.twitter.com/eX84ZcTWZb

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 1, 2020

If 6. Athiri repeats what she did last start, she’ll win again. The leaders cut each other to ribbons in that race but she pounced late and put her rivals to the sword. That was with 52kg. This is unlikely to be as brutally run, and she creeps out to 55kg but over the same track and trip in the same grade, on another good track and from a low draw, it all points to her running somewhere around that mark again. The four-year-old had no luck in her two runs prior to that which had some punters, myself included, questioning whether she’d ever knock off that elusive second win. The form out of last start has stood up since too with Prime Candidate subsequently winning while the runner up Prime Star, beat Destination (since second to Wild Ruler) prior to that.

Dangers: 8. Burning Crown was brave to get as close as he did first up over 900m at Newcastle given he was posted three and four deep throughout. When it all falls into place, he is hard to catch from in front and a dry track over 1200m is ideal. 4. Hilo burst through the middle of the field first up only for Fituese to prove too strong at the finish. That looks a deep race on paper but Masked Crusader, Electric Girl and Akari have all run poorly since. Second up last preparation he ran third in a Listed race finishing alongside Dawn Passage. Winkers go on. 1. Handle The Truth carries 60kg even after the claim and assume he is ridden quietly from the wide draw.

How to play it: Athiri WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Athiri bolting in last start

All the fields, form and replays for Epsom Day at Randwick on Saturday