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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick.

The rail is out True and the form has been done for a Soft/Heavy track.

This looks a very clever piece of placement from Canberra-based trainer Norm Gardner with his talented filly 22. Miss Ostend. The three-year-old has been deep ended for much of her career with all bar two of her eight starts coming in feature races. She won both of those. Having won comfortably first up at Moruya last preparation she ran in the Listed Rosebud, beaten six lengths by Paulele and In The Congo. Seven weeks later she popped up in the Listed Heritage Strakes, where she was beaten five lengths by Home Affairs as a $151 pop, finishing alongside Overpass at the finish. Those form lines proved to be the strongest three-year-old sprinting references in the country. Now here she is back to a Class 3, having drawn low and on the back of a nine length trial win. Just needs to make the field now!

Dangers: 1. Valiant has the highest benchmark in this race so the lightly-raced six-year-old is very well in under the set weights conditions. There are obviously soundness issues but he is a talented sprinter when right and he drops back in grade third up. Have been waiting for months for 2. Casino Lord to reappear having savaged the line when seventh behind Ten Bells first up. His 33.24s last 600m split was the quickest across the entire meeting. The knocks are obvious, however. He’ll be giving away another huge start and why the eight weeks between runs? 8. Midsummer Rain is a very talented mare and also fits in beautifully under the set weights scale. Draws awkwardly and didn’t look at all comfortable on a heavy track back in February. 10. Mandalong Superb has won three of her seven starts and looked very sharp in a recent trial romp.

How to play it: Miss Ostend WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Miss Ostend trialling at Canberra

3. Media Starguest is yet to win this preparation but he has arguably never raced better. The Ron Quinton-trained four-year-old covered ground throughout first up from a wide draw before another awkward gate proved costly second up, yet he still ran home deceptively well in a slowly run race. Last start he parked up much closer from a better draw and although he had his chance, he did jump from 1400m to 1800m and Lord Ardmore simply proved the superior horse, never giving his rivals a chance from in front. Media Starguest is back slightly in grade, tackles this race fourth up, loves wet tracks, draws to get the run of the race again dropping back to the mile and gets 3kg off courtesy of Reece Jones. If he is going to win a race this preparation, it’s this one.

Dangers: 1. Travest sets up to be close enough to his top now third up and out to the mile, on a wet track, he gets a lot in his favour. Just not sure whether barrier 1 is a blessing or negative. It depends on how well he steps for Tommy Berry. 7. Savvy Legend was a second up winner last preparation and wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve sharply on his midfield finish first up when taken right back to near last from the draw.

How to play it: Media Starguest WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Media Starguest last start behind Lord Ardmore

2. Dragonstone fits a big engine into that tiny frame of his. The three-year-old resumed a length winner at Kembla first up but that doesn’t do the win justice. The son of Mikki Isle clocked a lightning 32.39s last 600m with a 400-200 of 10.37 and last 200m of 11.23. It was a wet track yet the overall time was only four lengths off the track record and Tyler Schiller was soft on him across the line. Now, Dragonstone did have 51kg and was given perfect ride so reluctant to get too carried away but it was a win of a horse destined to charge through the grades. Yet here he is coming back in grade, with that comes an extra 4kg but that seems rather fair to be honest. The Randwick 1100m is pretty kind with a long run into just the one turn which doesn’t make Dragonstone’s barrier seem quite as daunting.

Dangers: 9. Bacchanalia won like a $1.70 favourite should at Canterbury last start, not giving his backers a moment of worry and this race is a nice progression for him. He is now two from two on heavy tracks. 7. Lady of Luxury plummets in weight after the claim and she continues to race will this preparation. The knock being 1250m back to 1100m. 8. Tiny is rarely far away and maps to get the run of the race while 5. Lady Banff has place claims too.

How to play it: Dragonstone WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Dragonstone winning at Kemlba first up

There were no excuses for 4. Herman Hesse last start at Rosehill, other than he was beaten by a better stayer in Suppression. There was a sizeable gap back to third and the import lumped 60.5kg. It’s arguably the best run he has produced in his five starts for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, despite being beaten on his merits. It was only a BM78, and he now jumps into Listed company, but the highest rated runner in this is 1. Mightybeel and he only has a rating of 89. It just means Herman Hesse gets in with 54.5kg. The five-year-old son of Frankel isn’t blessed with a turn of foot with his strength his stamina so he looks well paired with Kerrin McEvoy who’ll roll into a prominent position upon settling and keep grinding away.

Dangers: Mightybeel has charged through the grades this preparation, now finding himself at the 59kg top weight in a Listed race. The Chris Waller-trained four-year-old comes through the logical strongest form race in the ATC Cup where he was second to Polly Grey. Prior to that he beat Lord Ardmore who has since won again. Wouldn’t think the 2400m would pull him up. If there is a knockout it could be 8. Deniliquin. Yes, she has a benchmark of 59 and ran second in a BM64 last start but it’s easy to get the impression that it’s all starting to click for him. There aren’t too many other ways to turn with 2. Hush Writer hopeless in the wet and 5. King’s Charisma coming off a plain seventh at Newcastle.

How to play it: Herman Hesse WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Herman Hesse last start at Rosehill

Not thrilled about the early price for 2. Boldinho but there was a lot to like about his debut behind Ebhaar at Caulfield. The Brazen Beau colt, trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, was posted deep throughout yet still sprinted to clear out with the winner. That wide run perhaps took it’s toll the last 100m, which is where Ebhaar asserted her authority. There was two lengths back to third. The early and mid-stages of the race were slowly run, so there was perhaps no major disadvantage to be covering ground but like the dash he showed when asked to quicken. Of the exposed form, Boldinho looks the pick of them. Throw into the mix a low draw, the Hugh Bowman booking and the stable’s past two-year-old success, Boldinho is a deserved favourite.

Dangers: 1. Athletica was sent around at $1.40 on debut at Newcastle and got the job done without too much fuss. In third was Matisse’s Comet who was well beaten in the Max Lees Classic on debut and the form through that race hasn’t stacked up since. The Hawkes stable are dangerous with first starters (comparing very favourably to the Waterhouse, Snowden and Maher yards percentage wise) and 9. Valspar found the line sweetly in his one trial, albeit in a slow heat. 4. Calgary Stampede was an 1100m winner on debut so we’ll know he’ll be running through the line back to 1000m and should improve off that which has him in the mix. 11. Capital Elle the knockout off a sneaky trial.

How to play it: Boldinho WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

7. Snippy Fox resumed with a strong win first up at Canterbury having sat outside of the leader on a heavy track at Canterbury. That was the first time in her career she had won fresh. The five-year-old did have three trials ahead of her return so Joe Pride perhaps had her more forward than in the past but given she historically improves second up (3:2-0-1), it sets her up well for this. Jay Ford, who rode Snippy Fox last start, will hunt forward to take up a prominent spot and the prospect of a wet track is a big plus for her. The daughter of Foxwedge gets a bit of weight relief in BM88 company too, carrying just 53kg. There are half a dozen winning chances in this but Snippy Fox looks to be the one the early market has underestimated.

Dangers:  3. Incredulous Dream savaged the line last start and despite it being a blanket go for second, her last 600m of 34s flat was two lengths quicker than the next best. It was just disguised by the slow lead tempo. Mindful of her second up form being a touch flat in the past, however. 4. Irish Dream was an explosive winner first up. More recently she has been more dynamic over 1000m and 1100m though. 6. Exotic Ruby has obvious claims but prefer her on firmer ground while 2. Bring The Ransom is capable fresh.

How to play it: Snippy Fox WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Snippy Fox winning first up at Canterbury

If 6. Vulpine can cross 5. Edison to find the front, she’s going to be hard to run down. Suspect her race will be won or lost in the first couple of hundred metres as she’s a bit of a control freak. The Brad Widdup-trained mare thrives on racing as it took her five starts last campaign to strike winning form again before she held that for her subsequent four starts. She got control for the first 400m last start in the Listed Starlight and that allowed Jay Ford to crank up the pressure in the middle stages before pinching a break on her rivals in the straight. Sure, she was in the right part of the Rosehill track but she was a comfortable winner in the end. The 1200m holds no fears for her, nor does the wet track, with the latter only enhancing her chances.

Dangers: If 10. Snapdancer is here, she’s an obvious threat. Has never raced on a wet track and resumes after a 41 week spell but she’s a classy mare that’ll continue to skip through the grades. Started equal favourite with Probabeel last preparation, such was the market respect for her. 7. Dream Circle carved out some huge late splits behind Vulpine, clocking 32.91s for his last 600m. Not only the quickest across the entire meeting but the fastest by nearly three lengths. Again, he found the fastest part of the track. Liked the return of Edison in that race too, having been jagged back to last. 1. Eleven Eleven will give the field all a start but be strong late while we know that 2. Southern Lad is a very capable sprinter on his day.

How to play it: Vulpine WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Vulpine leading all the way last start

6. Ellsberg parked himself outside of the leader in the Festival Stakes and ran out a dominant winner as the $2.40 favourite. The four-year was suited by the way Rosehill played that day, where he was a huge advantage to be on top of the speed and closer to the inside. Ellsberg wasn’t rails in run, which proved significantly advantageous throughout the meeting, but how flattered he was is certainly a consideration. As is the extra 3kg he’ll carry. That said, the son of Spill The Beans has always been a smart horse and he sets up to race the best race of his preparation out to the mile fifth up. Tim Clark has won on Ellsberg twice already and will have him parked in the first couple once again in a race that shouldn’t be too frantically run. Every chance.

Dangers: 1. Bandersnatch is ready now. The Hawkes camp would have targeted this race specifically this time back and he won third up last campaign. He showed third and fourth up last preparation that if he is allowed to find a rhythm in front, he is a very hard horse to chase down, particularly on wet tracks. Has never raced over the mile. Should be able to hold the fence in front of 11. Fun Fact. The wetter the better for 17. Brutality. His was perhaps the run of the day when fourth in the Festival, against the pattern, before finding the line back to 1400m on a good track last week. Won on a three week back up last preparation. This is harder again for 15. Steely but he is flying and maps beautifully. 2. Kirwan’s Lane gave Ellsberg 1kg and beat him fair and square second up last preparation but he hasn’t replicated that level of performance since.

How to play it: Ellsberg WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Ellsberg winning the Festival Stakes

3. Mubariz may have run fifth first up beaten four lengths but it was an exceptional return from the six-year-old in the context of him being first up, on a heavy track and making up ground against a fierce fence-in-run bias. That was behind Ellsberg in Group Three company and he matched motors with Brutality before his condition gave out. Mubariz was nominated for the Villiers Stakes but Chris Waller instead elects to drop his gelding back to BM88 company second up, out to the mile. It’s a lovely set up. He draws well in a race without a stack of obvious pressure, so should hold some kind of midfield position and Tom Sherry, claiming 2kg, is riding with plenty of confidence. Historically, Mubariz has always needed the run first up (6:0-0-3) before improving into his campaign.

Dangers: 9. Equation finally showed a glimpse of his true ability at Kembla last start, flashing home into second behind Steely. Perhaps it was the combination of a wet track over the mile. That’s the same circumstances he faces on Saturday. 8. Lackeen comes through that same race and was forced back from a wide draw before working steadily to the line. The concern is how sharp he’ll be third up staying at the mile. Might be looking for 2000m. To offset that, is the likelihood of him settling in the first four. 10. Rainbow Thief and 11. Zegalo rate mentions.

How to play it: Mubariz WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Mubariz first up behind Ellsberg

5. Brookspire was first up for 11 weeks at Rosehill two weeks ago, off a couple of set backs and sat deep throughout on a track where it was hugely advantageous to be close to the fence. It was an enormous run from the four-year-old mare. Despite boasting a record of 9:3-2-1, there has been a number of occasions where lady luck has deserted her. The daughter of Hinchinbrook only needs a run of even fortune to charge through the grades as she looks far better than benchmark grade. She tackles another BM78 second up out to the mile and Nash Rawiller, who rode her last start, sticks with her. Has the tactical speed to use the inside draw to take up a prominent position. Just needs the Randwick fence to hold up come the last. Otherwise, it’s impossible to knock her claims.

Dangers: Don’t think 6. Dynamic Impact quite has the scope of Brookspire but he is also a galloper picking his way through the grades. Has won two BM78s already this preparation and tackles that same grade again, albeit with 59kg now. Has won four of his past six starts. John O’Shea has been ducking wet tracks and bad barriers with 9. Blesk recently which sees the five-year-old present here five weeks between runs. Can only run well and few here will be stronger late. They look the main trio. 3. Above And Beyond ran on well behind Dynamic Impact last start. The booking of Hugh Bowman on 11. Fleetwood Macca says something about the former Kiwi’s chances.

How to play it: Brookspire WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"Confident we can follow this mare through the grades."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray saves the best for last at Randwick on Saturday @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/xj9kdKSSuU

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) December 9, 2021

All the fields, form and replays for Randwick on Saturday