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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Newcastle.

The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a good/soft track.

Liked what we saw from 9. Uncorked in her one Randwick trial. The daughter of Pierro showed enough speed to spear forward before responding when Tim Clark asked her to sprint, revealing that she possesses a couple of gears. She beat Birdonawing, a filly that was met with support in last Saturday’s Golden Gift and Bohemian Daisy, who subsequently placed in a Group Three down the Flemington straight. Clark stays on for her debut and with the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott polish, expect her to put herself into the race over the 900m dash. Her breeding suggests that she’ll get over much further in time but given the manner in which she won her trial, happy to gamble that’ll she’ll be sharp enough on debut.

Dangers: 3. Lord Of The Hunter is one of only two runners with the benefit of race experience. After zipping clear to win his trial back in mid October he was sent around an even money favourite at Muswellbrook but was grabbed on the line. He had his chance but with the runner under his belt, home track advantage and James McDonald in the saddle, there’s a solid case to be made for his chances. 1. Forbidden Water also comes through that race and despite being $5 into $3.60, he folded up to run last having led the field to the turn. Might have been too bad to be true. 4. Vancouver’s Crown trialled well for Jason Coyle, albeit clocking the slowest time of the four 805m heats that morning.

How to play it: Uncorked WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Uncorked winning a Randwick trial

Trawling through 1. Cisco Bay’s recent form, it’s easy to conclude that he’d only have to hold that level to be in the finish of this race. His best shakes the life out of this moderate BM78, in fact, it’d see him win. Go back to June this year and the seven-year-old produced a stunning finish to win in this same grade, beating Canasta and Blondeau. He gave his rivals all a start and a beating, clocking some of the fastest closing splits across the meeting. Even his third behind Atishu at Randwick in August, after a four week freshen, reads well for this. That was in BM88 company. After winning first up in BM78 company, his five subsequent runs were all in harder company. The penalty he pays for that is at the weights but the claim of Brock Ryan negates that and he draws to be close enough if good enough.

Dangers: Just when you think 2. Ma And Pa’s winning run surely has to end, Chris Waller finds another perfect race, and again a race with very little speed. Nash Rawiller has been aboard for the gelding’s last three wins, stacking up his rivals before outsprinting them. Staying at the mile for a fourth run in a row is a little query as thought he raced like he might be looking for 2000m last start, with his dam being Dear Demi. While Ma And Pa gets on top of the speed, taking luck out of the equation, it’s the opposite for 10. Sacred Command. It’s not too much of a stretch to suggest that he should be protecting a picket fence himself having been blocked for a run at his last two starts. Tommy Berry is the jockey tasked with the job this time. 6. Karmazone is the best knockout hope on the back of a sneaky ninth at Rosehill first up.

How to play it: Cisco Bay WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

What Cisco Bay is capable of

5. Casino Kid has produced two eye catching runs first and second up, flagging that he has returned as well as ever. Would love this to be 1400m but 1300m from a middle draw will have to do. The four-year-old is going to win again very soon. First up at Randwick he hit the line late over an unsuitable 1100m before doing the same a fortnight later over 1200m. He drew wide on both occasions, forcing him to give away impossible starts. Punters Intelligence reveals that last start only Brave Enough had a quicker last 600m split and that Highway Handicap looks the logical form reference heading into this. Reece Jones claims 3kg and was the last jockey to win on him, at the backend of last preparation. The speed in this race looks to suit too. Gets his chance.

Dangers: 9. Street Power was last sighted in the 1100m Highway that Casino Kid contested and he did a huge job to stick on at the finish. He was posted four deep throughout yet still kept finding to run second. Tackles this four weeks between runs and is untried at the trip. Brett Cavanough has always held the four-year-old in high regard. 2. Ceasefire shares the same form line, through Brave Enough, but had every possible favour in the run. 8. Raoul offers up a different form line, having it the ground running for Cam Crockett. The former Godolphin-trained galloper had run in a couple of deep city maidens before being transferred. He is very well found, however.

How to play it: Casino Kid WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Casino Kid last start over 1200m

8. Cream Rises got his preparation back on track in the Four Pillars, flashing home up the fence to run seventh. That was after being forced back to the tail from the wide draw and being held up in the straight as Nash Rawiller took the shortest way home. Only the winner Kiss Sum clocked a faster last 200m split. Prior to that, at Randwick, the four-year-old suffered cardiac arrhythmia which explained his 30 length defeat. First up, meanwhile, his run was much better than it reads on paper. He travelled deep and wide at Gosford in what proved to be a very handy BM78. It was won by Electric Girl with Quantico running on into fourth. Rawiller sticks with Cream Rises and shouldn’t have too much trouble parking him midfield before giving him his chance.

Dangers: 13. Harvey’s Way is the up-and-comer of the field with two wins from his first three starts. He had excuses in the defeat too, having been dragged back to last from the wide draw before having his momentum baulked as he angled clear. He bounced back two weeks later out to 1400m at Newcastle, getting the better of promising mare Dynasties. Draws soft, gets in light and should relish the mile. 4. Tampering was dictated to in the Four Pillars but didn’t shirk his task. Maps to find the front again here, albeit in a race with plenty of pressure on paper. 11. Ladies’ Gem is one of those that’ll be on speed too. He sets up well himself.

How to play it: Cream Rises WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Cream Rises in the Four Pillars

1. Love Tap controlling this race from in front, back in grade and with Nash Rawiller on top is an appealing potential scenario. Rawiller has been aboard in this four-year-old’s last three wins, the latest of those being three starts ago at Kembla Grange. On that occasion, Love Tap rode a hot speed and kept finding to run fast time. Suspect that ability to sustain his sprint with be at the forefront of Rawiller’s mind out to 1850m deep into a campaign. The grey will be fit enough to hold his top speed if he is sets out at a genuine clip. The son of Tapit held his ground in the Golden Eagle a fortnight ago, finishing midfield. He was shuffled back in the run despite jumping from barrier 2 before warming up through the line.

Dangers: 3. Mightybeel was beaten as an odds on pop last start but hardly disgraced. His last 600m was three lengths faster than anything else. It was just that the stop-start shape of the race caught the backmarkers out. If this race turns into a sprint home, he has the sharpest turn of foot. He should be able to turn the tables on stablemate 4. Lord Ardmore. No knock on the former Kiwi though, now he has found winning form over his right trip. 2. Milk Man chases three straight and will put himself on top of the speed.

How to play it: Love Tap WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Love Tap in the Golden Eagle last start

3. Kiss The Bride finds himself in career-best form this preparation. He ran his rivals into the ground at Randwick third up yet has shown at his last two runs that he is just as effective, if not more so, ridden quietly. The six-year-old hit the line in the Spring Mile before stepping out to 2000m in the Rosehill Gold Cup a fortnight ago. Think It Over powered to victory, and Kiss The Bride carried 9kg less than him, but loved the way he attacked the line late. Surely that’s the right form line going into this. Think It Over is a genuine Group One weight for age horse. Kiss The Bride’s closing splits there were comfortably the quickest in the race. Steps out to 2300m now, which holds no fears, from a perfect draw and Rachel King jumps back on.

Dangers: 1. Shared Ambition will just be pleased that Think It Over isn’t here! Will likely roll across to sit outside of 7. Hush Writer in the run. It’s the right time to stretch him out in trip again and he’s very well in after the claim. There is a query as to whether Hush Writer can rediscover his best this preparation but it’s a likeable set up, providing the track stays dry. Will lead with just 52kg on his back. 4. King’s Charisma was grinding away at the end of 2500m in the Hotham last start. He warrants respect but couldn’t have him as the early race favourite. 6. Torrens broke through at Listed level last start and this is of a similar standard.

How to play it: Kiss The Bride WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Kiss The Bride behind Think It Over last start

5. War Eternal wasn’t sharp enough to be in the finish of the Brian Crowley first up over 1200m (he lost both hind plates in the run too) before being posted deep throughout last Saturday at Rosehill. He was beaten three lengths in a reasonably deep BM78 won by Zoushack with Blesk running home into second. The form of the Bjorn Baker-trained colt this time back doesn’t look like much on paper but we’ll find out exactly where he is at third up out to the mile from a low draw, allowing Josh Parr to smother him up before producing him late. That’s how he won at Randwick over 1400m at the backend of last preparation. The sting out of the ground would be a bonus too as all of his good two-year-old form was on wet tracks. Good shout at odds in a very open race.

Dangers: 10. Festival Dancer is a mare right in the zone at the moment, winning three on the bounce. In one of those, on a heavy 10 at Kembla Grange, she beat 2. Lease. Makes her own luck and handles all surfaces. 7. Kokoro won at the same meeting as Festival Dancer last start at Goulburn and the time stacked up well enough to say he could match it with her. Just has a tricky draw to overcome. 4. Arnaqueur also maps to be giving away a big start but we know the finish he is capable of reeling off. 6. Contributingfactor looks to be a strong type and earns a crack at this on the back of three wins from his five starts. The list goes on. There’s chance right down the page.

How to play it: War Eternal WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

War Eternal last Saturday behind Zoushack

1. Lost And Running backed up his fourth in the TAB Everest behind Nature Strip with an exceptional second in the Classique Legend Stakes. There was simply no catching Eduardo in front but the five-year-old clocked a 32.94s last 600m in pursuit and an 11.04s last 200m. That was after finding a three-wide running line from a wide draw. Hugh Bowman would love to find the same spot given he draws a similar barrier for The Hunter. With 10. Sweet Deal drawn to his immediate inside, Lost And Running should get a cart across. Where that cart ends likely decides the fate of Lost And Running. Maybe he could sit deep and still prove too good for these, even with 59kg, but with any cover it’s hard to see how his rivals beat him. Still is a clear top pick. Just means we are getting a better price.

Dangers: 3. Gem Song’s first up run last preparation was a beauty, clocking comparable late splits to Masked Crusader. That was after 67 weeks on the sidelines too. That was before winning the Newcastle Newmarket second up. Maps to be three back the fence and Nash Rawiller jumps back on. 2. Top Ranked is the big unknown. The import arrives with a big reputation. All 12 of his career starts have been over the mile but his record suggests that he is deadly fresh. Big watch. 7. Standout would need Lost And Running to underperform to turn the tables from last start but he does get a 4.5kg weight swing and draws to box seat. 5. Bandersnatch and 11. Prime Candidate will run well from on top of the speed.

How to play it: Lost And Running WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

"The draw looks awkward on paper but it's why we are getting $3 plus."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray believes it's worth taking the punt that #TheHunter favourite's class will see him come out on top @tabcomau @newcastleraces_ pic.twitter.com/kmxIhuDXmk

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 11, 2021

7. Grand Rumore hasn’t really been given any chance this preparation. She is going so much better than her bare form suggests. The imported mare resumed with a fast finishing fifth behind Geist and King Of Sparta over 1200m before she half missed the start second up behind Ellsberg. From an inside draw, she ended up coming widest in the straight. It was a big effort to get as close as she did. Then last start on a deteriorating Warwick Farm surface she was never in the hunt from the rear. It was a non-event. Kris Lees has freshened her up since then and like the way she won her tickover trial at Newcastle. Hugh Bowman won on the five-year-old on her Australian debut and he jumps back on. Will be out to emulate not only that result but the way he rode her from a low draw.

Dangers: This is by far the easiest race 3. Fashchanel has contested this preparation and despite running eighth last Saturday, she was only beaten two lengths and it was in Group Two company. After the claim, she carries the same weight back in BM78 grade. 11. Norwegian Bliss has won three from three but this is harder again. Won’t get her own way in front here either. She can win, no doubt, but inclined to risk her as the early favourite.

How to play it: Grand Rumore WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Grand Rumore winning a recent trial

Track conditions play a big role here as 12. Katalin does her best work on top of the ground. To the eye, Katalin fell in to beat Selburose first up at Rosehill. Her sectionals tell a different story, however. She smashed the clock late to run down the leader, who had got complete control from in front, in the final hop. Her last 600m was a sizzling 32.58s, the fastest across the entire meeting, stopping the clock at 10.66 for her 400-200 and 10.77 for her last 200m. The margin did not do the win justice. The lightly-raced mare has now won three from three on good tracks, and all in the manner of a galloper capable of racing her way through to Group races. Tommy Berry will have the task of balancing her up midfield before she’ll do the rest.

Dangers: Her stablemate 6. Gravina hasn’t had much go his way this preparation. He was luckless first and second up, the latter of those behind Big Parade, before being beaten at $1.95 last start. It’s subsequently easier to be forgiving now that Quantico has further franked the form while Eclectic Girl was well beaten back in fourth. 4. Surreal Step was first up there and wasn’t beaten all that far. Draws soft and ran second in Listed company second up last preparation, when coming back in trip. He sets up even better out to 1300m this time back.

How to play it: Katalin WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Katalin winning first up at Rosehill

All the fields, form and replays for Newcastle on Saturday