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Neil Evans' Tips For Warwick Farm (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 5 and rail out 3m:

Race 1 3YO BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1100m):

Good quality sprint for the three-year-olds to get us underway on a surface continuing to dry out. Plenty of early value here with progressive Godolphin filly 4. Lost who let down strongly from midfield to win a Super Maiden second-up. This is a tougher test, but she's still well on the upward spiral and draws to find a trail off the fence. Over the odds

Dangers: Naturally talented filly 10. Facile is a big threat resuming for a second proper prep behind a smart trial. Showed plenty as a two-year-old earlier in the year, beaten under a length in the Millenium when fresh before twice being edged out narrowly at Group 2 level. Lightly raced 7. Unstopabull is clear next best from a nice cover draw off a tidy debut win at the provincials; while resuming stablemate filly 5. Joliestar can run into the money first-up from the inside gate.

How to play it: Lost to win and quinella 4 and 10

Race 2 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1600m):

The boys lock horns over the mile here, and it shapes well for three-year-old 6. Diabelli who won't get a better chance to return to the winner's stall after three close and frustrating second placings. Failed to run down the winner at the provincials as a heavily backed favourite two runs back before again strolling up to win at Newcastle 17 days ago before being edged out by a long neck. Gets a significant weight drop back in metropolitan company, and again draws to find the right trail. Must be the one to beat.

Dangers: Big watch on improving 5. Buillt who hit the line hard in a CL1 at Kembla, and also gets crucial weight relief back in town from the inside draw. At bigger odds, keep safe 1. Spitfire who comes to town off the back of two fast-finishing wins, and gets the weight drop after the claim for the rise to this company. Big gap to the rest.

How to play it: Diabelli to win

Race 3 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1600m):

The girls' turn now, and there's good early value around progressive metro five-year-old 4. Hinchinjive who can make it two straight well into the prep. Ran home okay in consecutive provincial races before charging over the top to win a handy CL1 at Hawkesbury after being ridden quieter. Right at peak fitness in a race that isn't overly strong, and expect her to again settle back off the fence and come with a telling run over the final 350m.

Dangers: Tough on speeder 3. Oakfield Redgum is a big threat around this tighter circuit. Bolted in from the front in weaker grade at Wyong two runs back before sticking on okay in a deeper Midway BM 72. Needs to get over from a tricky draw, but can run another big race if she escapes early pressure. Keep very safe 3. Irish Kisses who draws to get good cover just off the speed, and peaks third-up at this longer trip; while 1. Arts is the best of the rest third-up and goes in all exotic plays.

How to play it: Hinchinjive to win

Race 4 BENCHMARK 72 HCP (2200m):

Same graded race over the longer journey. Like improving Irish-bred four-year-old 3. For Victory who is suited getting out to this staying trip second-up. Worked home just fairly here over the mile when reloading off a 32 day break, but took on tougher opposition in late winter, and always given the impression he will be far more effective over this sort of distance. Draws to get cover and the top jockey takes over.

Dangers: Plenty of them in a cat-and-mouse tactical affair starting with 1. Chateaux Park who dropped out in much tougher Listed company before surging home late only 12 days ago when heavily backed from $4.80 into $2.80. A reliable weight carrier who will drift back, and look to work into the finish from the half mile. Consistent mare 9. Condrieu is right in this on the limit weight after working home okay in that same recent race here as the top weight. Honest 2. Casual Connection also comes through that same formline when beaten a long head fourth-up; while improving mare 6. Our Maryanne has won two of her last three, the latest a strong finishing win in this grade over 1900m, and draws to get cover off speed.

How to play it: For Victory to win

Race 5 3YO & UP MAIDEN HCP (1600m):

Lightly raced and progressive filly 4. Ahuriri looks primed here, getting out to the mile on a 2.5kg weight drop in a race without much depth. Returned off an eight week spell at the provincials for only her second start and ran home okay after emerging early in the straight. Has always had a reasonable wrap, and will come on big from that run, and naturally is bred to run this trip out and much further. Was scratched from Newcastle on Saturday to be saved for this.

Dangers: Keep safe improving stablemate 3. Jurisprudence who found the line well at Newcastle on debut at big odds, and the winner of that race went close again on Saturday. A third Chris Waller-trained runner 1. Kapakiri has to work in from a wide draw, but has a fitness edge fourth-up, and ran home nicely into a place in Saturday provincial company just nine days ago. At bigger odds, watch for any market support with Japanese-bred colt 7. Superstitious who gets blinkers added at his third start stepping up to the mile.

How to play it: Ahuriri to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 100 HCP (1000m):

Small but competitive field at this sprint level, but hard to see high class four-year-old 4. Spacewalk getting rolled first-up from the inside draw. Was very impressive last prep charging home to miss narrowly in a feature sprint at Doomben before again finishing hard to win the Listed June Stakes at Randwick in mid June. Has been fitted with two progressive trials, and as long as he gets clear air from the 400m on this tighter circuit, is the clear measuring stick.

Dangers: Tough all conditions sprinter 2. Coal Crusher was ultra competitive in some big races last prep. Comes to hand when fresh, blinkers are off, and also returns off two handy trials. The other big wheel in the race is 5. Extremely Lucky who ran home late behind smart winners Buenos Noches who is Everest-bound, and more recently Red Card, and is well weighted down on 54.5kg. Big gap to the rest, although resuming 2. Holyfield goes in if you're playing trifecta and first fours.

How to play it: Spacewalk to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1400m):

A few chances in this battle headed by consistent provincial four-year-old 2. Convincebility who hasn't finished further back than second in four runs this prep, and is suited by a little drop back in distance. Scored consecutive country CL3 wins before being run down late by a smart one in similar company on the Kensington track, then again boxed on for a long way behind the talented River Snitty. Given 19 days since, draws to roll forward with ease, and with some weight relief after the jockeys claim.

Dangers: Naturally, the Waller-trained stallion 3. Yasuke is a serious challenger second-up after working home late in a deeper BM 72 on the Kenso circuit. Gap to the rest headed by 8. Capital Heart who gets a soft run right behind the speed fourth-up; while both 9. Lyrical Gangster resuming with gear changes behind an easy trial; and 10. Galano switching states second-up; can both run into the minor money.

How to play it: Convincebility to win

Race 8 4YO & UP BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1100m):

The older sprinters lock horns in an open closer. Smart mare 13. Written In Code is the one to beat, resuming for a second prep in a weakened race. Was a dominant off-speed winer at the provincials on debut back in late autumn, and tuned up for this with two progressive trials.

Dangers: Keep safe 6. Jedibeel after charging through underneath runners to win a handy CL1 at Wyong two runs back before ridden quieter and finishing hard in a similar race at Canterbury. Watch the maret on improving stallion 9. Another Cognac second-up; while both 1. Able Willie off a fast-finishing BM 72 win on the Kenso; and 2. Chief Conductor resuming with a 3kg claim; both fill the exotic plays.

How to play it: Written In Code to win

BEST BETS:
R4 3. FOR VICTORY
R6 4. SPACEWALK

BEST VALUE:
R1 4. LOST

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Warwick Farm meeting

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