By Neil Evans
Race 1 - 12.30PM 2YO HCP (1100m): |
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Capitalist colt 1. Customized comes through a powerful formline presenting for his second start on a four week turnaround, although was also accepted for Canterbury Friday night. Chased home subsequent high-rating Magic Millions winner to less than three lengths at Eagle Farm, and even better suited here in a much bigger field with more pressure and speed on up front. No concern coming back 100m in trip, given he draws the fence allowing him to settle a bit closer in the run, and on a surface that will likely improve back into soft range.
Dangers: 2. King Of Roseau is a stablemate of the top selection, and also draws low. Was heavily backed when making short work of a two-year-old field in Canberra three weeks back in soft ground, and while this is much deeper, he has plenty of scope, and gets a vital gear change. 7. Fully Lit opens his career for the Waterhouse-Bott stable off two forward trials where he was strong through the line. 5. Caravanserai is a first starter for Godolphin, bred to fly, has trialled twice and the wraps are handy.
How to play it: Customized to win
Race 2 - 1.05PM TAB HIGHWAY CL3 HCP (1400m): |
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Progressive and lightly raced 6. Associate finds the right profile race second-up off a seven week freshen, and crucially with blinkers on for the first time. Hit the line late in a similar race to this when first-up off a long break, and has been kept on the fresher side by a good strike rate country stable. Kept ticking over via a soft city trial where he was strong late, and drew to stay out of trouble back in the pack and get to the middle by the 350m.
Dangers: 9. Musical Affair is a tough on speed mare among a host of each way chances. Has placed in two of three this prep at country BM 66 level, the most recent boxing on for a long way, and drops 4kg for this deeper assignment. 21. Miss Ghent needs scratchings to get a run, but is promising, and normally comes to hand fresh off a soft trial. 1. Aimpoint is much better served on rain-affected ground, and can run a race second-up at big odds. Watch for sharp third-up improvement from 5. Agirlsbestfriend who got a mile back and suffered a checkered run last time. 3. Bon Frankie loves wet ground, and is another who can settle back and finish hard second-up.
How to play it: Associate to win and Aimpoint each way.
Race 3 - 1.40PM MIDWAY BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1200m): |
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Highly capable mare 8. Gently Rolled can strike here fresh. Made rock solid progress through her winter campaign, with consecutive wins in provincial BM 64 grade before being ridden quieter and hitting the line into a place behind the smart King Of Naples in smarter company. Fitted with two soft trials, and the booking of James McDonald is an obvious pointer. Like most of the Press Statement breed, she handles all going.
Dangers: 3. Xpresso ran home well to beat all but the winner in a similar line-up second-up, and while he thrives on wet tracks, still a query in a race where there doesn't appear to be a lot of tactical speed around. 5. Willaidow has progressive ability, and the likely leader from a wide draw. Has won his last 3 either side of a spell, but still shapes under the odds in a tougher race, and may go to Canterbury instead. 6. Lancaster Bomber has always been tough to catch, but if he gets anywhere near his last start win from just off the speed, can finish over them. 4. Dimaggio is honest, and can hit the line first-up behind two trials.
How to play it: Gently Rolled to win
Race 4 - 2.15PM BENCHMARK 88 HCP (1200m): |
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The likely smallest field all day is music to the ears of 4. Time To Boogie who should justify his early hot quote, and claim a fifth career win third-up. Missed narrowly last time in a blanket finish after working hard from a wide draw in a much bigger field, but in a race of less depth and pressure, this is a whole different map where he can either cruise through to lead or sit right behind. A heavy surface would be the only slight query, so the more it improves the better placed he is.
Dangers: 8. Stromboli draws right alongside, and can run the quinella coming through that same Randwick race a fortnight ago when he hit the line to finish a tough in front of the top selection. 2. Meritable can improve sharply third-up drawn further out this time after failing to run home through grossly inferior ground last time. 7. Sneaky Paige is the one to add some value into wider exotics fourth-up coming through the same formline.
How to play it: Time To Boogie to win and quinella 4 and 8
Race 5 - 2.50PM BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1100m): |
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Resuming for the new Bjorn Baker stable, 1. Caballus has won both lead-up trials with something in hand, and looks ready to burst back for a second prep. Stable has rung the gear changes, and at his only previous run in soft ground, finished best to beat a smart 2YO field, including third-placed Shaken who has bolted in both runs this prep at this level.
Dangers: 2. Epic Proportions is a value threat second-up. Held his ground okay chasing home a short course special at The Valley five weeks back, and this is his pet trip. Lightly raced 5. Soldier Of Rome draws inside, resuming off a long break for the Waterhouse-Bott stable. 6. Bomarea comes through some solid-rating CL3 Highway form, including an all-the-way win first-up.
How to play it: Caballus to win
Race 6 - 3.25PM BENCHMARK 78 HCP (2400m): |
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Provincial mare 3. Yankee Hussel stays in town gunning for a third straight win, stepping up significantly in grade. Has been very strong through the line in claiming a provincial CL1 and metro BM 64 in her last two. Naturally tackling some better ones here, but the 5kg drop for an on-speed mare who is hard fit, makes her early price way over the mark. By American Pharoah so no concerns having her first crack at this longer trip.
Dangers: 5. Lyrical Gangster has been very consistent since a fast-finishing BM 72 win at the Kenso track on Melbourne Cup day. Twice finished on from well back before running home best in this grade a fortnight ago. Looks well treated at the weights to run out this longer journey. 8. Yarrawonga has a real yearning for rain-affected ground, so the wetter the better. Gave nothing else a chance in heavy ground at Kembla when surging clear to win a much weaker class by nearly 6 lengths, so watch the forecast and any subsequent market moves. 2. First Light has found a new lease of life from off-speed, winning his last two up to this level, and crucially over this same trip. 7. California Grass drops a hefty 6kg in weight behind a fast finishing win in much thinner provincial company.
How to play it: Yankee Hussel to win
Race 7 - 4.00PM BENCHMARK 88 HCP (1400m): |
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Progressive 2. Excelladus is well placed fourth-up from a suitable trailing draw, despite a 2.5kg weight hike. Defied a betting drift to beat a similar graded field a fortnight ago, and given nearly all his best form is on soft or heavy tracks, even better suited this time. By dual Cox Plate winner So You Think so you know he'll be strong late.
Dangers: 4. Robusto has spent as much time running up to win as he does winning in 22 starts, and has probably found his ceiling in this grade. Swept home to win a BM 78 two starts back before only holding his ground in a similar field to this last time. The inside draw where he can be tucked away and saved for one final run, and back on rain-affected ground, keeps him well in the fight. 5. Daunastar is building a smart and consistent record, with a 30 percent win rate from 22 starts. Gets good weight relief stepping up from a barrier-to-box win in weaker company, and also relishes the wet. 7. Powerful Peg carries her lightest weight in a long time second-up.
How to play it: Excelladus to win
Race 8 - 4.40PM BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1500m): |
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Improving 8. Anythink Goes carries a slow-burning sense of timing here fifth-up at good odds. Had no luck two starts back before missing narrowly last time after being ridden closer, and given he's a So You Think gelding who has won over 1900m, can really attack the line hard late
Dangers: 7. Buillt is as genuine as they come. Has won two of his last three by tracking up from midfield and driving home late. No reason he can't take the next step from an ideal cover draw. Progressive 4. Step Aside must be a threat hitting peak fitness fourth-up from a soft trailing draw. Has missed narrowly in his last two when well backed, but returns to the track where he scored a first-up win in lesser grade. 1. Special Envoy resumes off a lengthy break, and usually takes a run before hitting his straps, but won a recent 1100m trial.
How to play it: Anythink Goes each way
Race 9 - 5.20PM BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1100m): |
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Progressive 6. Our Kobison gets a much better run in transit here second-up, and can take his emerging record to four wins from just seven starts. Covered plenty of ground resuming in a similar line-up, but never shirked the task, and should settle a fraction closer here from the inside barrier.
Dangers: 3. Tintookie was very good running home hard to beat the top selection when resuming, although she did get the easier run, and meets the top selection 1.5kg worse off. 7. Shohei has been well in the market in two runs back, and superior jockey change is key. 5. Bubba's Bay stuck on okay when leading first-up, and drops 2kg for this.
How to play it: Our Kobison to win
Race 10 - 5.55PM FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1500m): |
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Lightly raced country mare 11.Give Me Joy comes to the Big Smoke at the right time chasing a third straight win at her fourth start. Has won her last two at Wyong from the front, and naturally gets big weight relief here stepping up to this level, although this isn't overly strong. Untried on wet ground, but over the odds.
Dangers: 4. Centrestone was a dominant fresh winner from well off the speed in similar company at Eagle Farm before again running home at Doomben. Back on a suitably bigger track over more ground make him a natural threat.1. Ita must be kept in the mix getting back on her preferred rain-affected ground fourth-up. 3. Principessa can improve third-up from the fence draw after a plain effort behind a smart winner.
How to play it: Give Me Joy each way
BEST BETS:
R9 6. OUR KOBISON
BEST VALUE:
R8 8. ANYTHINK GOES
All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill Gardens meeting