By Neil Evans
Track improving to around Soft 6 and rail True so likely on or near the speed again
Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1200m): |
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The two-year-olds get us underway, with half the field on debut, but one first up for eight weeks looks the one to beat from the inside draw. Progressive colt 1. Blondeau closed hard in a terrific debut at Rosehill in December before finishing okay as a rock solid favourite in the Group 3 at Eagle Farm just after Xmas. Looked sharp in a recent trial.
Dangers: Liked the debut effort of Warwick Farm colt 4. Setanta finishing hard at Canterbury when well backed, and draws to get a charmed run for the hot Maher-Eustace stable; while also include debutant Randwick colt and consistently smart trial performer 6. On The Lead (Im Am Invincible x Marechal by General Nediym) who draws well, and bred to handle rain-affected ground.
How to play it: Blondeau to win and box trifecta 1,4,6. Odds and Evens (First 2): Split
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1250m): |
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Intriguing battle for the 3YO's at set weights. Keen here on emerging Godolphin gelding 2. Cathars third-up with the blinkers coming off. Flew home to just miss last start at Canterbury, and has since trialled in smart fashion.
Dangers: Rosehill filly 4. Astralis worked home as a hot favourite resuming here in the Heavy 9, but improves on better footing down in weight, with the blinkers going on. Be surprised if anything else wins, but classy Randwick gelding 3. Good Stock resumes off two nice trials; while Godolphin filly 10. Seraglio can improve off a solid closing run on debut.
How to play it: Cathars to win and quinella 2 and 4. Odds and Evens: Evens.
Cathars runs third at Canterbury on January 22
Race 3 BM 70 HCP (1900m): |
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Always a fairly open cat-and-mouse battle of tactics over this trip, especially with a few involved who like to sit up front. One of those, 3YO Rosehill gelding 5. Hostage Of War steps up from consecutive Maiden and BM 64 wins here for the Waller camp. While this tougher, he drops in weight, and will push forward from a middle gate and be hard to beat.
Dangers: Kembla mare 8. Tochi has hit a purple patch bolting in a Class 1 before a dominant win this grade and track. Up in weight, but if she finds any sort of forward position from a wide draw, will be in the finish. Warwick Farm 7YO gelding 1. Dylan's Romance is hard fit, and cashed in on a leader's track and afforded an easy time in front to bolt in here a week ago, although doubt he'll get that luxury again, and even after 3kg claim, has to carry a hefty 62kg. Expect sharp improvement on slightly firmer surface from 5YO Rosehill mare 3. Mountain Breath who was very plain behind Dylan's Romance a week ago. Improving Warwick Farm filly 10. Ready's Girl can be included in exotics carrying only half kilo over the limit weight.
How to play it: Hostage Of War each way and first four 1,5,8/1,3,5,8/1,3,5,8,10/1,3,5,8,10. Odds and Evens: Odds.
Race 4 BM 70 HCP (1100m): |
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Back to the sprint trip for the older mares, and it's as wide open as you can get, with most of the field from provincial or country bases. Like the placement here about 4YO Wyong mare 5. Dame Kiri second-up over this trip and down in weight. Hit the line hard resuming in a good Class 3 at Tamworth behind one of the better gallopers in country NSW.
Dangers: Hawkesbury 4YO mare 9. Lagarde has been threatening to win one since the spring, and hasn't been beaten more than 2.6 lens in her last five. Gets her big chance here dropping 4.5kg over a little more ground. Canberra 5YO mare 7. Polyxena is another one coming to the city at the right time after two solid runs back in BM 70 Federal company at home. Kembla mare 8. Winter In American is slowly building towards another win after finishing close up in her last two at home, and drops 2.5kg. Consistent Wyong mare 2. Buckin' Beauty continues to build a solid record, and was only just run down late by a smart one here a fortnight back. Handles all ground, but drawn wide, and weighted right to her best.
How to play it: Dame Kiri each way and trifecta 5,7,9/2,5,7,8,9/2,5,7,8,9. Odds and Evens: Odds.
Race 5 BM 72 NIGHT SPRINT SERIES HEAT 4 (1000m): |
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Feature sprint of the night, and love the value about 5YO Wyong gelding 1. Oakfield Twilight who resumes off a smart trial, and normally comes to hand early in the prep. Won two straight BM 70s at Newcastle in the spring. In okay at the weights after rider's claim, and looks over the odds.
Dangers: Talented 3YO Rosehill filly 9. Super Oasis got the job done resuming in similar grade, but second-up form not as reliable, and she's up 3kg on that win; while resuming Newcastle mare 4. Power Command can also be prominent fresh off two sound open class trials, and leading metro rider gets back on.
How to play it: Oakfield Twilight each way and quinella 1 and 9. Odds and Evens: Odds.
Race 6 BM 76 HCP (1550m): |
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Even field back over the tricky middle distance, and again there are plenty of chances. Banking on the drop back from 1800m lifting 5YO Rosehill mare 11. Austria over the line. Has run four straight 2nd placings in BM 70 grade, often ambling up to win without finishing off. Looms as the best weighted runner down on the limit 54kg.
Dangers: Newcastle 5YO gelding 2. Condor has never raced better winning two of his last three, including a dominant display from midfield here last start. Draws a similar economic gate, and no concern back out to this distance. On-speed 6YO Muswellbrook gelding 3. Dalmatia Prince is also in the zone this prep, not missing a place from four starts, including a fast-finishing win on the Kensington track. Was only collared late last start here on the heavy in same grade, and likely to roll forward. Warwick Farm 6YO 6. Nicochet finished close up in a blanket finish in that same race as Dalmatia Prince, and even better suited here on improving ground.
How to play it: Austria to win and box trifecta 2,3,6,11. Odds and Evens: Split.
Austria runs second at Kensington on February 4
Race 7 BM 70 HCP (1250m): |
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The wide value goes all the way to the last in a terrific race. Lightly raced 4YO Scone mare 10. Fritz's Factor is in career-best form charging home to win three straight, including a Highway at Randwick last start. Looked in top shape in a recent trial, and drawn to coil up around midfield, and pounce early in the straight.
Dangers: Any number of them headed by 4YO Warwick gelding 3. He's A Hotshot who looks well placed from the draw after a string of good runs in generally tougher company. Can roll forward again, and deserves to land a fourth win from only 12 starts. Warwick Farm 6YO gelding 7. Accelerato will drift back from a wide gate, and look to charge home on the seven day back-up. The run here last start was way better than it looked on a track where it was near impossible to come from the second half so don't under-estimate.
How to play it: Fritz's Factor each way and box exacta 3,7,10. Odds and Evens: Split.
All the fields, form and replays for Friday's night meeting at Canterbury