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Kensington Winners - Tips For Wednesday 17th January

By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday's Kensington meeting. Selections based on a soft/heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Race 1 - 2:20PM GRAINSHAKER AUSTRALIAN VODKA PLATE (1000 METRES)

Tricky race to start, but nothing went right for Ballet D'esprit on debut at Wyong and she represents value. The filly began awkwardly, was caught four-wide out on a limb working throughout, and was severely checked on the final turn. Further, to her credit, she picked herself back up and closed off well in a race that produced a high-rating last section relative to the day after adjustments. The Michael Freedman galloper has a much more positive race setup here from the soft draw, will have improved from that race experience, and the market intelligence first-up was strong.

Dangers: Debutant 2. Luna Field is well-educated and has run time to win two heats leading into this event. He's shown gate speed, natural pace and responded well under pressure in his latest trial at Canterbury. Additionally, expect him to roll forward and take catching. First starter 1. Call Me Gorgeous, who is a nice type, looks to have potential, and his closing speed had merit to win a recent trial at Warwick Farm. Expect him to be wound up for this and charging at them late. 5. Amoreaux has multiple winning figures but must come back in distance and market watch on 8. Be Quiet who hasn't been extended in two trials coming out of the in-form Joe Pride yard.

How to play it: Ballet D'esprit WIN ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds).


Ballet D'esprit runs second at Wyong on January 6

Race 2 - 2:55PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1400 METRES)

5. Pure Alpha deserves to be a short-priced favourite after his debut effort when running second at Randwick 22 days ago. The three-year-old had every chance in the run but built through his gears well, recorded one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting and beat the rest easily. Further, that race rated well relative to the day, and the margins confirmed the quality. The Chris Waller galloper brings a dominant figure relative to his rivals, and with even luck, expect him to be hard to beat.

Dangers: 8. Equipage has been racing well/consistently all prep, bringing a key fitness edge here. Forgiving of her last start at Canterbury, where she had too much to do, and she can bounce back here with a much more positive race setup. 6. Sunlord resumes as a gelding off a long break and has trialled well. First-up last prep, he had excuses, and repeating that performance can put him near the finish. 1. Hell's Itch will improve sharply here, and 1400m is ideal second-up.

How to play it: Pure Alpha WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds).


Pure Alpha runs second at Randwick on December 26

Race 3 - 3:30PM RANVET PLATE (1150 METRES)

11. Speed Personified is a nice type who showed adaptability in her trials before running an honest third on debut at Canterbury 12 days ago in a strong time race. The filly was ridden early to find a midfield spot, relaxed and loomed to win but peaked on her run after exerting too much energy between the 600m-200m. Expect her to have benefited from that outing, and she maps to have all favours with James McDonald to do the steering.

Dangers: 6. Side Show, who resumes as a gelding, presents as a knockout chance and hit the line hard in a recent trial. His figures line up well here, and if he gets the tempo to suit, expect him to be savaging the line. 7. Layin Four is rock-hard fit and relishes wet ground.

How to play it: Speed Personified WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds).


Speed Personified runs third on debut at Canterbury on January 5

Race 4 - 4:05PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1550 METRES)

Keen on 6. Wolves, who profiles well for this and is ready to peak third-up. The mare had too much to do last start at Canterbury, and her run was full of merit. Further, she raced wide, wasn't suited to the race shape, had to make a long-sustained sprint, and hit the line hard, recording the meeting's fastest final 400m/200m splits. All key indicators suggest she is set to improve, and all her peak figures have come on rain-affected ground. In addition, James McDonald rides for the first time and expect her to roll forward.

Dangers: 2. Nanna's Wish can improve sharply here on wet ground and she wasn't suited first-up at Randwick 22 days ago. Moreover, the market suggested she would benefit from the run, and her sectional profile supports that. She maps to have all favours from the inside draw and the rise in trip suits. 1. Gold Pattern, who is rock-hard fit, can settle closer in a race lacking genuine tempo. 8. Ring Me Up is a knockout chance with a turn of foot.

How to play it: Wolves WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).


Wolves runs second at Canterbury on January 5

Race 5 - 4:40PM OLE KIRK FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

Like 1. Cadetship here, and he finds a winnable race down in grade. The gelding hasn't been suited to sit/sprint race shapes in both runs this prep and expecting sharp improvement. First up, he was checked/blocked at critical stages, but his effort had sectional merit and forgiving of his last start, where he didn't appreciate settling outside the leader. The Chris Waller trained galloper has a profile of peaking third-up, receives the blinkers for the first time, and James McDonald sticks. In addition, the anticipated genuine tempo is ideal where he produces his peak figures.

Dangers: 5. Castillian must overcome an awkward draw, but everything about his ratings/sectional profile suggests he is ready to peak over 1400m. The Joe Pride galloper hasn't had any luck in both runs this campaign but will appreciate being back on the rain-affected ground and the blinkers go back on. 7. Vinnie's Spirit is on the quick backup and is rock-hard fit for this event. Add 4. Bat Out Of Hell, who can improve with the blinkers going back on.

How to play it: Cadetship WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).


Cadetship runs third at Randwick on January 6

Race 6 - 5:15PM BIVOUAC FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

French import 4. The Big Short is ready to improve fourth-up stepping out to a more suitable trip and the bigger track suits. The five-year-old was honest last start, running third at Canterbury in a similar grade race, and gave every indication he was looking for more ground. He has a strong platform, is unbeaten at this distance and back to the rain-affected ground is ideal. Each-way.

Dangers: 5. Tympanist will relish returning to this track, where he holds a fantastic record. The gelding has had six starts at Kensington for four wins, and his last victory came at this track/distance. 6. Oakfield Wallaby, who deserves her shot at the metropolitan level, is an improving type and draws well. 3. Edmond maps to get complete control. Add 10. Ring Ahoy and 2. Mahagoni to wider exotics.

How to play it: The Big Short E/W ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds).


The Big Short runs third at Canterbury on January 5

Race 7 - 5:50PM TAB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

Leaning towards 8. Fire Star, who only had the one soft trial prior to his first-up run at Canterbury 16 days ago, was a savage drifter in the betting. However, his effort to run second after having genuine excuses was full of merit. The colt raced fresh, got pushed wide on the turn, losing his balance, but once he got his mind back on the job, he surged late and clocked one of the meeting's fastest final 200m splits. He will benefit from that outing and has a positive race setup here.

Dangers: 12. The Black Cloud was impressive on debut at Gosford, running slick time and doing it on both ends. The three-year-old always faced the breeze at a fast tempo and accelerated away from her rivals in style. Moreover, she has key attributes and can make the step-in grade. 10. Highborn Harry will be charging late and add 9. Royal Invader, who is rock-hard fit.

How to play it: Fire Star WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).


Fire Star runs second at Canterbury on January 1

Best Bet: Race 4 # 6 - Wolves

Next Best: Race 5 # 1 - Cadetship

Best Value: Race 6 # 4 - The Big Short

All the fields, form and replays for Wednesday's Kensington meeting

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