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By Nick Berney.

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Monday’s Kensington meeting. Selections based on a heavy track with rain forecast. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Tricky maiden to start with first starters engaged and a small sample of disclosed heavy track form. Godolphin debutant 5. Huon has trialled well and hit the line hard recently in a fast time/sectional merit heat at Warwick Farm. The three-year-old geldings breeding suggests he will handle the rain-affected ground, maps to get run to suit and will be running on strongly.

Dangers: First starter 4. Egyptian Tycoon looks a nice type and has improved between trials after being not extended in his latest heat at Randwick. He maps to get all favours from barrier 1 and is suited first-up over 1100m. 8. Headliner has been a costly conveyance in the past and more suited on drier tracks but does find a very winnable maiden. The three-year-old filly has strong form lines behind subsequent Group 1 winners and with any luck from the wide gate, expect her to be in the finish. Forgive 9. Tempestas who had a pre-race incident last start and will look to have first use of the track rolling forward. 10. Valentina Express debuts and has trialled well.

How to play it: Huon WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) & Egyptian Tycoon WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Huon runs third in a trial at Warwick Farm on April 11

6. Rinnova was heavily backed $3.80-$2.80 late in betting at Canterbury last start and tried hard when running second in stronger grade. The five-year-old mare had every chance in the run but battled on well in the testing conditions with a big gap to third. She has a fitness edge on some of her rivals, maps well and brings the best last start figure.

Dangers: 3. Bella Rouge broke through for her maiden win at this track and then was immediately spelled. The lightly-raced three-year-old filly looks to have come back in good order after trailing well. Additionally, she is a key late market watch with some query first-up on a heavy track. 2. Terrameades has been winning with ease on the country/provincial circuit this preparation and now gets her shot at the metropolitan level. She will need to improve to make the step-in grade but has a strong record and is proven on rain-affected ground. 8. Mirra View gets blinkers for the first time and is coming off a heavy track win at Wyong 18 days ago.

How to play it: Rinnova WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Rinnova runs second at Canterbury on April 6

Lightly raced improver 7. Toesonthenose resumed at Hawkesbury 20 days ago and was a dominant winner. The three-year-old gelding had all favours but won in style, sprinting away when responding well under pressure and going through the line full of energy. Further, Punter’s Intelligence recorded he ran one of the fastest final 200m splits across the entire meeting in 11.46. The Mark Newnham trained galloper gets key factors in his favour where he maps to control the pace, receives a senior jockey change in Sam Clipperton, the step-up in distance suits and is proven on rain-affected going. Although he rises in grade, his profile suggests he can step again in figures and rate to win.

Dangers: 2. Dark Rebel drops significantly in grade after being not suited when honest in the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) running fifth at Royal Randwick. He has raced against stronger opposition throughout his career and the heavy-going suits. Expect him to be running on strongly and may have the last shot. Add 10. Royal Ballet to all exotics.

How to play it: Toesonthenose WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Toesonthenose wins at Hawkesbury on April 5

7. Girl Mania was solid first-up in a fast time race relative to the day and had the bias against her when running second at Hawkesbury 12 days ago in this grade. The three-year-old filly was checked/blocked in the home straight and had to switch to the inferior ground but still ran the third quickest final 600m sectional of the entire meeting in 34.25. Second-up last preparation, she produced her career peak figure when winning impressively at Wyong by four lengths. She can settle much closer from the softer draw, is proven on wet ground, and a repeat of her last start figure will put her in the finish.

Dangers: 2. Quiet Riot who bounced back into form when winning at Orange first-up; ran fast time even after adjusting for age, class, and additional factors historically. James McDonald takes over the riding duties and expect him to improve again with a positive map. Market watch 6. Stormborn who comes out of the same race as Girl Mania and was 54 days between runs that day. Further, she started shorter in the market and receives a slight weight swing to her advantage. 3. Boss Lady Rocks is a last start winner and will roll forward.

How to play it: Girl Mania WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Girl Mania runs second at Hawkesbury on April 13

6. Thalassophile is a progressive type and was solid in defeat, running second at Hawkesbury 12 days ago after having factors against when starting $1.90 favourite. The three-year-old had a pre-race incident and had to make her run through the inferior ground but still posted one of the fastest last 200m splits of the entire meeting in 11.93. She smashed the clock on a heavy 10 surface in her prior start at Newcastle and posted a clear career peak figure. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. Jockey William Pike will have options from the wide-draw and be able to ride to any obvious pattern with the horse’s positional adaptability. In addition, the filly has dominant ratings relative to her rivals and looks to have the most upside.

Dangers: 5. Sing A Love Song got too far back last start at Wyong and ran on ok, albeit having a checkered passage over the concluding stages. The three-year-old colt was 31 days between runs, so we can expect improvement, and he has had strong form lines throughout his career. Market watch 1. Rangi Toa who started a $2.80 favourite in a two-year-old listed race in NZ prior to coming to Australia. Further, the import is now trained by G Waterhouse & A Bott and although having a long-time off, he has looked to have improved between trials. 10. Ticket To Anywhere is rock-hard fit and consistent.

How to play it: Thalassophile WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Thalassophile runs second at Hawkesbury on April 13

7. Arabolini led at a very-fast tempo last start and tried hard to the line when running second with a big gap to third. The six-year-old gelding is consistent, races well deep into a preparation, and has multiple figures that align well. Further, he has no weight, maps to get complete control and will give a sight.

Dangers: 1. Feel The Rush was suited and battled away ok into fifth when competing in the Group 2 Chairman’s Quality (2600m) last start. Further, the subsequent G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) winner, Knights Order, comes out of that race to confirm the form, and a repeat of that effort can put her in the finish. 6. Sound Of Cannons hasn’t won in a long-time, but he gets conditions to suit. 5. Shameless Miss is racing consistently and is a last start winner.

How to play it: Arabolini WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Arabolini runs second at Wyong on April 14

Wide-open event and forgiving of 5. Peekays Legacy who pulled up lame last start at Wyong 11 days ago. The four-year-old gelding represents value and gets key factors in his favour to bounce back into form. He receives a significant barrier change where he can settle closer in the run, and Kerrin McEvoy takes over the riding duties. In addition, third up last preparation, he produced a career peak figure winning at Rosehill over 1800m. The Peter & Paul Snowden galloper represents value, has a placing at this track and his figures line up well relative to his opposition.

Dangers: Market watch 8. Caboche who raced well last preparation in stronger grade and will be fitter for this. 4. Highballer is fit and in form beating Peekays Legacy last start. 9. Lekvarte will be suited if the track starts to dry out.

How to play it: Peekays Legacy WIN ($10.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Peekays Legacy last start at Wyong on April 14

5. Mach Schnell was rock-solid in the market at $4.50-$4.20 when making his Australian debut for new trainer Joe Pride at Hawkesbury 12 days ago. The five-year-old gelding was 53 days between runs and was outpaced when the tempo quickened but hit the line well and gave every indication of improvement to come next start. He has a starting price profile advantage over some of his rivals and is proven on wet ground. Sam Clipperton can use the horse’s versatility to either go forward or back if there is any significant pattern.

Dangers: 13. Secretively is hard to catch but his career peak figures have come on heavy ground and drops in grade. Market watch 14. Star Sparks and 15. Fields Of Honour who both resume.

How to play it: Mach Schnell WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Mach Schnell runs fourth at Hawkesbury on April 13

Best Bet: Race 5 # 6 – Thalassophile

Next Best: Race 3 # 7 – Toesonthenose

Best Value: Race 4 # 7 – Girl Mania

Quaddie:

Leg 1: 6,5
Leg 2: 7,1,6
Leg 3: 5,8,4,9
Leg 4: 5,13

Combinations = 48.

All the fields, form and replays for Monday’s Kensington meeting