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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Kembla Grange.

The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a soft track.

1. Shibli has won three of his past four and although he goes up 2.5kg to carry 60kg, he has already won twice at this grade recently. Winning has become a habit for this five-year-old. The other big advantages he looks to have over a couple of his obvious threats, including a couple of his stablemates, is how well he maps and his progression out to 2000m, as opposed to coming back in trip. Tommy Berry used a similar gate a fortnight ago to park Shibli just in behind the speed, running down Jazzland. He only had two starts in France before being imported to Australia, with his maiden win coming over 2150m so this extra trip won’t pull him up. The weights are starting to catch up to him but he is only one win away from putting BM78s behind him. Top pick in a tricky race.

Dangers: 6. Suppression really asserted his dominance over the final 200m last start over 2400m so the query has to be how sharp he is going to be dropping back to 2000m. Does look a handy staying in the making, however. 4. Solar Apex gets the blinkers on for the first time having raced a touch flat as his last two. Respect his SP from those outings. 2. Tampering presents a very fit horse, on the quick back up from a Newcastle win. It was in Midway company but the placegetters both have ability and the time stacked up well across the meeting. Rolls forward and Tim Clark is in the saddle. Can make a little case for 8. Avion Fury too.

How to play it: Shibli WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Shibli winning last start at Rosehill

There doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed in this race so it’s advantage 1. Point Counterpoint in regards to likely settling positions. The 1500m Highway Handicap at Rosehill two weeks ago is the logical form reference and Point Counterpoint was forced back to last from the wide draw. He made a long sweeping run from the tail and that told over the final stages, peaking on his sprint. The four-year-old was first up there. With that run under his belt and drawn barrier 2, expect Jenny Duggan, who rode him last start, to punch up and settle in the first couple. It was from a similar position he beat Outlook and Le Vizir at Newcastle towards the backend of last campaign. He is more a middle distance type than a genuine miler but sets up to potentially get away with this.

Dangers: 4. Sizzling Cat comes through that same race, running second to 2. So Say You. He was only second up himself there and if he can use the middle draw to park midfield, as opposed to being out the back, he’ll get his chance to go one better. His race will be won or lost in the first 200 metres. 8. Lucky Banner had no luck in that same Highway and shouldn’t have been all that far away at the finish. That’s two starts in a row she has gone to the line hard held. Another win is close for the four-year-old. Don’t overlook her at odds. 5. Lord Desanimaux boxed away to run midfield last start. Has been freshened up for the mile and he’ll do no work from an inside draw. 12. Mr Aloysius could give cheek from in front given the lack of obvious pressure.

How to play it: Point Counterpoint EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Point Counterpoint in a Highway first up

8. Dragonstone is learning on the job at the moment but is a three-year-old still with immeasurable upside. His debut third at Canterbury retrospectively looks very strong now with Fangirl running fourth. He then put War Eternal away at Warwick Farm before running on into second behind Sky Command at Randwick. Mark Newnham tipped him straight out after that. The son of Japanese stallion Mikki Isle began awkwardly in his most recent trial but mustered quickly before sprinting away from his rivals late. There wasn’t a lot of him early days so the mounting yard will tell us if he has developed in his 16 week spell. Tyler Schiller has been tasked with camping off a genuine speed and with 51kg on his back, will get his chance to run down the speedsters up front.

Dangers: 4. Satin Ribbons won her third race from just four starts two weeks ago, proving that she isn’t just an untouchable 900m filly. She never gave her rivals a chance at Randwick, beating the well tried Six Again. There is more pressure here. Two knockout hopes are right down in the bottom in 11. Tudor Music and 12. Don Luigi. Tudor Music was posted wide behind satin Ribbons last start yet only beaten 2.6L while local galloper Don Luigi has bits and pieces of form that’d measure up in this.

How to play it: Dragonstone WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Dragonstone trialling at Warwick Farm

Win number two was long overdue for 4. Black Duke and he earned it first up at Canterbury, doing it in good style. The four-year-old matched it with some pretty handy horses in his three-year-old season, running in Listed and Group company on a couple of occasions. There is an argument that he should have won one of those too – the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas, where he finished a luckless third behind Exoboom. Long story short, the talent has always been there, he just needs to start converting it into wins. Maybe that first up victory is a sign that he can now. He settled midfield before dashing past his seven rivals, two key ones he meets again in this in 7. Rammstein, who started favourite, and 6. El Buena. This isn’t a great deal harder than that to be fair.

Dangers: Rammstein was first up himself and was probably ripped out of his comfort zone by tearaway leader Shadow Bridge. He was coming again through the line before being tightened. Throw 1. Canasta into the speed battle too. Can find one or two too sharp over the sprint trips but he’ll put himself in the race and continue to fight. If everything falls into place, he can win. Ran four placings last preparation, without winning one. 5. Ranges shares a similar profile in that even when he doesn’t win, he invariably runs well. Just faces a tricky draw.

How to play it: Black Duke WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Black Duke winning at Canterbury last start

3. Selburose is really hitting her straps now as a four-year-old having run top two in her last four starts. Resumed off a five week freshen at Rosehill three weeks ago and nearly pinched it from in front. It took Katalin to clock exceptional late splits to chase her down. There looked to be good speed in that race but she crossed easily before stacking her rivals up. Expect her to cross to the front again here, quickly offsetting the wide draw. Has raced over the Kembla 1200m once before and she went warp speed out in front, setting up King Of Sparta to smash the track record. She was beaten three lengths but she was entitled to be beaten much further. To date, she has produced her best on top of the ground and in races where she dictates. If she gets that scenario on Saturday, she’ll take catching.

Dangers: 2. Nicci’s Fling was knocking around in Group and Listed level races for much of last preparation and holding her own. Can only see her running well in this. 10. In Lighten Me is the rank outsider but is that warranted? She has won three of her past four first up runs with the defeat a fast finishing seventh. 5. Tinker McPhee likely spots her rivals a start first up from the draw but she’s better than what she showed in her first Australian preparation. Her price was halved as soon as the markets went up on Wednesday. Can make cases for most of these including 1. Incredulous Dream and 7. Exotic Ruby. Where does 9. Seleque get to in the run? Looks tricky.

How to play it: Selburose WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Selburose being run down by Katalin

Track conditions and the established pattern to this point are significant for 2. Travest. If the sting stays out of the ground it would be ideal and if that means the winners are sweeping down the middle of the track, even better again. The five-year-old surged to the line first up at Rosehill over 1300m in Midway company. It mightn’t have looked it to the eye, but his last 600m split of 34.05s there was two lengths faster than the next best in the race. This is no harder than last start and he can only strip fitter given he tackled that race with just one soft 742m trial under his belt. Seven of his 12 starts have been with Tommy Berry in the saddles and he’s on board again. He’ll balance up just worse than midfield and if he runs up to his best, should be running on into the finish somewhere.

Dangers: 1. Easy Campese will settle a couple of lengths in front of Travest and thought he did more than enough first up too, when third behind Ma And Pa. He’ll also come on from that. The blinkers go back on, he’ll roll forward in a race without a stack of speed on paper and he handles all conditions. Travest beat Easy Campese in their one previous clash but it was due to a cunning Jason Collett ride. 13. Koberstar isn’t without a hope at big odds. He was never in The Four Pillars from the wide draw but he ran through the line well. His second to Delexo three back reads well for this and maps to settle a lot closer. 6. Bowery Breeze and 11. Divine Breath are both capable but are likely to be spotting the leaders a big start.

How to play it: Travest WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Travest first up at Rosehill

1. Eleven Eleven will have the last say in this 1000m scamper with speed draw right across the track. It’s been a couple of years since the five-year-old has raced over 1000m, proving himself to be a 1200-1400m horse as he has matured, but he has won three from three over the Kembla 1000m. They were all in a row, in his second racing preparation, and proved to be the launch pad for what he has done to date. He did more than enough first up on the Kensington track, clocking near identical closing splits to that of the winner Southern Lad. It was the crafty Hugh Bowman ride that proved the difference. Tends to need a run after he returns from a break too with his second up record (6:1-2-0) much more appealing than his first up. He beat Yao Dash second up two preparations back.

Dangers: It’s the shortest way home for 3. Malkovich from barrier 1 but it could prove problematic with the likes of 5. Marway and 11. Spaceboy rifling across from wide draws. There is no denying Malkovich’s claims, on the back of two seconds at Caulfield, and with James McDonald riding, but it mightn’t be quite as simple as lead, kick, win. 6. Kylease tucked in behind the leaders first up at Eagle Farm first up to win. That versatility sets her up well in this from an ideal draw. Maps beautifully. Godolphin pair 2. Isaurian and 4. Pandemic both drop back a peg in grade while 9. Lord Olympus is better suited over 1000m.

How to play it: Eleven Eleven WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Eleven Eleven first up behind Southern Lad

There is a lot to like about the set up for 11. Atishu in this. The former Kiwi-trained mare hit the ground running for Chris Waller earning a shot at the Epsom and Golden Eagle after impressing in benchmark company and winning the G3 Bill Ritchie Stakes. The four-year-old has an exceptional turn of foot. We haven’t got to see that in her past two starts, however, due to two different circumstances. In the Epsom she rode a fast speed and was one of the few survivors, which backmakers suited. She then missed the kick from a wide draw in the Golden Eagle and despite Glyn Schofield attempting to thread a passage through, she went to the line untested. Has already shown she is versatile enough to use a good draw and expect Kerrin McEvoy to do exactly that.

Dangers: Atishu has nearly five lengths to make up on 4. Count De Rupee from the Golden Eagle, where he was nailed on the line by I’m Thunderstruck. The way these two horses map, however, looks to flip. Expect 7. Archedemus to be given a dig out of the barriers so perhaps Brock Ryan just tries to slide in underneath him to find some cover. The form guide doesn’t do 1. I Am Superman’s two runs back this time justice. Looks to have returned as well as ever. Will just want the track to dry out and for the inside to hold up, having drawn barrier 1. More was expected from 3. Aramayo in the G1 Cantala but he’s better than that. A repeat of his Epsom run has him back in the finish again. 5. Quackerjack could sneak a place while 16. Yamazaki has knockout claims.

How to play it: Atishu WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Atishu and Count De Rupee in the Golden Eagle

5. Wheelhouse was second up out to the mile on a heavy track last start at Hawkesbury and that’s what got him beat. He’d had enough the last 100m. There was a four length gap back to third, so although he was rolled as the $2.35 favourite, his run was still outstanding. The reason he was so well found there was courtesy of an eye-catching seventh in the Sydney Stakes over 1200m first up. His last 600m was only a length off the quickest in the race, over a trip well short of his best. It was a race that was strong on the clock too. That was this four-year-old’s first run as a gelding. Wheelhouse is still only an 85 rater and for a horse that’s won just one from 10 but has already raced in three Group Ones probably tells you everything you need to know about how highly Chris Waller rates him.

Dangers: 4. Steely just kept raising the bar last preparation, culminating in a four length demolition of Great House. Prior to that he put away 9. Lackeen. Steely resumed in the Goulburn Cup and was surging through the line. Should camp midfield and sets up well out to the mile. Lackeen’s hit and run mission in Melbourne first up worked out perfectly. The draw looks awkward in this though. 6. Kirwan’s Lane produced his career best second up last preparation off a very similar first up run to the one he produced this time back. Hasn’t been able to recapture that since, however. 8. Zoushack leads and dares his rivals to catch him. Doubt the mile stops him. 17. Kingsheir has his first run for Chris Waller.

How to play it: Wheelhouse WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Wheelhouse at Hawkesbury last start

8. Dynamic Impact has made steady improvement in each of his preparations. To think only seven starts ago he won his maiden at Goulburn paying $14. The four-year-old has three of his past five, and one of those defeats was a luckless eighth behind Oscar Zulu. He resumed at Rosehill three weeks ago and although the frantic pace up front played into his hands, it wasn’t an easy day to make up ground. It was a Good 3 at Rosehill and the majority of the winners came from up top. Zoushack stuck on gamely to run second and he subsequently franked that form by winning himself a week later. Ditto for the third placed Much Much Better. Dynamic Impact doesn’t have the luxury of carrying just 51.5kg second up but James McDonald goes on and the gelding at least has some versatility to offset the lack of speed in this race.

Dangers: 1. Oxford Tycoon could find himself in front which sees him warrant some respect. Found his best form again last start. 6. Zegalo is a lightly-raced import with Chris Waller that was a first up winner at Warwick Farm last preparation. This is a touch harder again but we still don’t know his ceiling and it was hard to get a read on a very quiet trial. 2. Maid Of Ore has the speed to put herself into this race, even over a trip short of her best.

How to play it: Dynamic Impact WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"This is a horse that just continues to improve..."

📹BEST BET: This gelding won a deep race first up flashing home from last and @BradJGray is confident he'll make it two on the bounce @tabcomau @BBakerRacing pic.twitter.com/BLsWi6gQ86

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 18, 2021

All the fields, form and replays for Kembla Grange on Saturday