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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's $10 million James Squire Golden Eagle (1500m) at Rosehill Gardens.

1. Hawaii Five Oh (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Rev Bill Crews Exodus Foundation): Endured a wide run in the TAB Everest though did have Private Eye’s back for the most part. He worked to the line quite well without threatening and that says either he was looking for more ground or it was just the best he could do on the day. No doubt, though, his strongest efforts have come around the 1400m trip so he should relish getting out in distance especially having drawn a favourable alley in the big field. If the Everest is the right form then he’s hard to beat.

2. Attrition (SCRATCHED).

Hawaii Five Oh (Pic: Bradley Photos)

3. Pericles (James Cummings/Ronald McDonald House): He’s a tricky one to line up as he had that gap after winning the Tramway into the Silver Eagle of six weeks and he missed his planned early target of the Epsom Handicap. He would have started one of the favourites in that Group 1. So how hard do we be on him for his somewhat fading third in the Silver Eagle. He had a nice enough run but wasn’t able to sprint with the winner before the runner-up took a few lengths off him to snatch second. No doubt he’s fitter and from barrier one with his racing style he should be suited. Has to be fitter therefore is in the mix.

4. Golden Mile (James Cummings/Humpty Dumpty Foundation): Group 1 miles have been the form line so far in Golden Eagle history and that’s what this Godolphin charge carries into the race. He was game off a wide gate in the Epsom Handicap but possibly not quite up to the weight-for-age level in the King Charles. Found him to be a bit hit and miss but you have to argue that he’s much better placed against his own age here and while drawn wide his hand has been shown in recent starts that he’s an on pacer. If he happens to get across and comfortably then he can give some cheek.

5. Kovalica (Chris Waller/National Jockeys Trust): While we are talking Group 1 mile form, this gelding probably should have won the Epsom then his run in the King Charles was enormous from a wide gate having to go back to last. He ran the fastest last 600m of the race and quite easily. He’s clearly flying. On paper the barrier doesn’t look ideal, it will come down to how the track is playing as to whether he can make ground as, let’s face it, unless there’s some surprise move in the race he’s going to be worse than midfield and in the three wide line at best. There’s some bullish comments from jockey and trainer about him and he’s clearly a talent. What price is he if he draws inside 10? Definite chance.

6. Rediener (Chris Waller/Redkite): Like 2019 winner Kolding, he’s an Epsom Handicap winner so is another who ticks that mile box. A bit like Golden Mile, though, he wasn’t up to the task in the King Charles and they finished alongside each other in the second half. On his side is another soft barrier. Against him is the report he had some swelling on Thursday morning and some lameness. That’s not going to help if he lines up. Happy to overlook him.

7. Osipenko (Chris Waller/Team Tye Foundation): Something of a forgotten horse and one that has threatened for a while to jag a big race win. His effort first-up in the Winx Stakes was a promising one and he did chase home Mr Brightside and Alligator Blood in the Makybe Diva third-up. You’d think that’s pretty decent form. Though he was just okay at best in the Turnbull and with the freshen back to 1500m he’s one to be wary of. The blinkers go on and draws okay, certainly has the talent to be a player.

8. Strait Acer (Edward Cummings/Australian Alzheimer’s Research): He’s come such a long way in a short time, just a few months ago he was winning a Midway by a narrow margin over the Golden Eagle course. But he kept winning then went into the Silver Eagle as a $41 chance off a month’s break and ate up the ground in the last 200m to get within about three-quarters of Vienna Princess. He’s going to be generous odds again but from a good draw with a confident jockey on board it wouldn’t be a shock if he ran into the finish somewhere.

9. Communist (Michael Freedman/Royce Simmons Foundation): It’s fair to say this horse isn’t racing to his best form. He went into the Epsom Handicap with a month between runs and a trial and drew well for the first time in the prep. He had every hope in the run and didn’t finish it off. Draws okay in this big field and the blinkers are going back on. He is a Group 1 winner but that’s getting to be a while ago now and he doesn’t appear to be going well enough to win.

10. Coin Toss (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Camp Quality): Former Singapore galloper who had a good record in his former home and you’d have to say his local debut was a pass mark. It was in the Silver Eagle and after jumping well he drifted out to the second half of the field. Thought he worked to he line quite nicely and you’d imagine he will be a lot better for the run. Now he’s had that run he could be a candidate to go forward from a wide gate with the blinkers on here. A case of you’d like to see him measure up before getting too confident but he should improve on what he showed first-up.

11. Knight’s Choice (John Symons & Sheila Laxon/Mark Hughes Foundation): Ran off his feet first-up over 1200m and while he did show improvement when up to a mile two weeks ago he could have done a bit more than run fifth behind Unspoken with 52kg. Essentially jumps to Group 1 company here and has to carry 5.5kg more. Showed a lot of promise in the Brisbane winter but does look out of his depth.

12. Obamburumai (Keiji Yoshimura/Riding For The Disabled NSW): The big wild card of the race. Simply, he could win this with a leg in the air or finish in the middle somewhere. Just the five starts and the two he didn’t win were in Group 1s in Japan and we know that’s the real top shelf as Group 1s aren’t as plentiful over there are they are in Australia. Beaten 1.5 lengths over a mile in his latest Group 1 attempt back in May. He does appear to have settled in well and while he’s not a big imposing type he is an impressive looker. Commands a heap of respect.

13. New Endeavour (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Sporting Chance Cancer Foundation): Went forward from a wide gate in the Silver Eagle and didn’t quite have the pace to get across and found himself midfield and wide. Strode up deep on the home turn but was a bit one paced when the pressure went on and weakened out of it late. Expect he will lift off that though the draw hasn’t done him too many favours here either. On his best form from the UK earlier this year he clearly has some ability but would suggest a quick turnaround is needed.

New Endeavour (Pic: Grant Guy).

14. Age Of Kings (Chris Waller/Ingham Institute For Applied Medical Research): Is he a rank outsider because of his two, to be fair average, local barrier trials? You’d think an import coming off a Group 3 win at Ascot and into the Chris Waller stable would be given a bit more respect than serious double figure odds. But that question is an important one about his trials and how he has settled in. Typically the Waller stable doesn’t push horses at the trials and there’s a chance he could jump out of the ground with the blinkers on. Still, would like a bit more confidence about him.

15. Galeron (Charles Hills/Kari Foundation): Triple figure odds for this UK trained galloper who has won two from 12 but has also taken on some of the best that Europe can offer. Only beaten a few lengths by Paddington back in May in the Irish 2000 Guineas and was placed at a mile at Goodwood two runs ago. It’s a long way to come, even for a $10m race, to be a 125/1 shot so he must have something to offer. But how can you be confident?

16. Amelia’s Jewel (Simon Miller/Dunsborough Community Respite): The star WA mare makes her Sydney debut coming off the worst run of her career. It’s not the ideal build up but there’s that old saying about forgiving a good horse one bad run. It seems there were excuses for it with some kind of bug going around the stables at the time and we can tie her form in a bit through Overpass and Bella Nipotina from the Quokka back in April, a race she should have won and only failed by a nose. We haven’t really seen her have the chance to take up a position from a good draw so she has that chance here. That makes her very dangerous.

17. Ruthless Dame (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Prostate Cancer Foundation): Consistent mare backing up from a narrow defeat in The Invitation last weekend. Drew wide and landed in the three wide line with cover, with the winner coming off her back to deny her late. She didn’t give up the ghost and just has to tick the 1500m box. She’s had one shot in the Group 1 Coolmore Classic earlier this year and just held her ground. The wide draw isn’t a disaster for her but she will need to find the right back to follow.

18. Legarto (Ken & Bev Kelso/Sony Foundation): Super Kiwi mare with seven wins from nine starts and form around some of the best in her country. Is a month between runs since her win in the Matamata Cup over a mile under 58.5kg on a wet track and she did that job with plenty left in the tank. Won the Australian Guineas back in March with a late surge. She’s drawn ideally and it should ensure she’s not in the back quarter of the field. Really not sure how good she is yet and with her record she is a huge chance.

19. Vienna Princess (Chris Waller/Royal Flying Doctor Service): A smart mare who has come of age this spring and backed up a commanding win in Benchmark 88 company with a strong performance to take out the Silver Eagle when coming back 100m in trip. Has a great turn of foot and a middle gate looks ideal for her racing style. No doubt she has to prove herself against the top level but who’s to say she couldn’t take another step up. It’ll have to be a big step but she has a case.

20. Razeta (Kris Lees/Fordham Foundation): A mare with a decent amount of ability but she does have a very negative racing style. She’s almost always conceding a start and that makes it hard to win any race let alone one such as this. Warmed up at the end of the Silver Eagle to finish midfield as a $101 chance. Did start favourite in the Hawkesbury Guineas which was won by Hawaii Five Oh but it seems they’ve gone in different directions since then.

SPEED MAP: On paper there doesn't look high speed but with the likes of Golden Mile and Coin Toss drawn out, along with New Endeavour, you'd imagine they will look to get across smartly and might generate some tempo if they are made to work by those inside. How Obamburumai jumps probably dictates where he settles. Pericles can make use of gate one and be prominent, while Hawaii Five Oh, Communist, Rediener and Amelia's Jewel are among those who can settle first half.

SELECTIONS:
18 LEGARTO
16 Amelia's Jewel
5 Kovalica
12 Obamburumai

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Golden Eagle meeting at Rosehill Gardens